POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
--.--.---- --:--
Stadion Miejski w Gdyni
Referee: W. Myc
Arka Gdynia
Match Timeline
Jagiellonia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Dawid Gojny
Arka Gdynia
9'
J. Imaz · Assist: A. Pululu
Jagiellonia
🟨
24'
Taras Romanczuk
Jagiellonia
🟨
34'
Yuki Kobayashi
Jagiellonia
38'
J. Imaz · Assist: A. Pululu
Jagiellonia
🔄
66'
D. Kocyla ↔ N. Rusyn
Arka Gdynia
🔄
71'
J. Imaz ↔ M. Nahuel
Jagiellonia
🔄
71'
A. Pululu ↔ S. Bazdar
Jagiellonia
73'
S. Bazdar · Assist: A. Pozo
Jagiellonia
🟨
75'
Alejandro Pozo
Jagiellonia
🔄
78'
S. Kerk ↔ L. Perea
Arka Gdynia
🔄
78'
D. Zator ↔ M. Navarro
Arka Gdynia
🔄
78'
A. Nguiamba ↔ E. D. Espiau Hernandez
Arka Gdynia
🔄
79'
A. Pozo ↔ Z. Zalewski
Jagiellonia
🟨
80'
Zachary Zalewski
Jagiellonia
🟨
84'
Luis Perea
Arka Gdynia
🔄
86'
O. Kubiak ↔ P. Szysz
Arka Gdynia
🔄
87'
B. Mazurek ↔ E. Kozlowski
Jagiellonia
🔄
87'
K. Szmyt ↔ D. Rallis
Jagiellonia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 71.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
71.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.5%
-
Probability Distribution
Arka Gdynia Win 30.5%
Draw 10.7%
Jagiellonia Win 58.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arka Gdynia1.11
Jagiellonia1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
WWDLW
30 GF / 47 GA
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
WLDWL
65 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.68
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
14
BTTS Yes
27
17
Over 2.5
25
3.32
Shots on Goal
4.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 28 matches
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 42 matches
Arka Gdynia Statistic Jagiellonia
9 Wins 18
7 Draws 15
12 Losses 9
30 Goals For 65
47 Goals Against 49
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.68 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
14 BTTS Yes 27
20 Over 1.5 33
17 Over 2.5 25
11 Over 3.5 12
6 Clean Sheets 12
11 Failed To Score 8
3.32 Shots On Goal 4.45
10.32 Total Shots 12.74
4.14 Corners 4.55
46.5% Ball Possession 51.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Jagiellonia's more proactive style and Arka Gdynia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Jagiellonia. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Jagiellonia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 43 points while Arka Gdynia sit 16 on 34, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Arka Gdynia Analysis

With 34 points from 28 games and a place of 16, Arka Gdynia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 12 defeats with a 30:47 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on E. D. Espiau Hernandez (5 goals), N. Rusyn (4 goals), S. Kerk (4 goals), with creative support from S. Kerk (7 assists), Marc Navarro (4 assists), Kike Hermoso (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Jagiellonia Analysis

Jagiellonia come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 43 points from 28 matches. The record of 11 wins, 10 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 44:35 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Afimico Pululu (11 goals), Jesús Imaz (11 goals), A. Pozo (3 goals), with creative support from Jesús Imaz (5 assists), B. Wdowik (4 assists), Afimico Pululu (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Arka Gdynia won 0 times, Jagiellonia won 6 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:17 from Arka Gdynia's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
Predicted formations: Arka Gdynia 4-2-3-1 / Jagiellonia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Arka Gdynia wins 0, draws 0, Jagiellonia wins 6
Stats
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
1
7 Corner Kicks 3
12 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 4
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Goal 5
6 Shots off Goal 3
5 Blocked Shots 1
14 Shots insidebox 8
3 Shots outsidebox 1
2 Goalkeeper Saves 6
348 Total passes 387
284 Passes accurate 318
2.89 expected_goals 1.21
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Arka Gdynia
Formation
Jagiellonia
J. Grobelny
J. Grobelny
D. Zator
D. Zator
K. Hermoso
K. Hermoso
M. Marcjanik
M. Marcjanik
D. Gojny
D. Gojny
K. Jakubczyk
K. Jakubczyk
A. Nguiamba
A. Nguiamba
D. Kocyla
D. Kocyla
S. Kerk
S. Kerk
O. Kubiak
O. Kubiak
V. Gutkovskis
V. Gutkovskis
S. Abramowicz
S. Abramowicz
N. Wojtuszek
N. Wojtuszek
B. Vital
B. Vital
Y. Kobayashi
Y. Kobayashi
G. Montoia
G. Montoia
T. Romanczuk
T. Romanczuk
B. Mazurek
B. Mazurek
A. Pozo
🎯
A. Pozo
J. Imaz
⚽ 2
J. Imaz
K. Szmyt
K. Szmyt
A. Pululu
🎯
A. Pululu
Arka Gdynia 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
J. Grobelny
G
4
D. Zator
↓ 78'
D
23
K. Hermoso
D
29
M. Marcjanik
D
94
D. Gojny
🟨 2'
D
35
K. Jakubczyk
M
10
A. Nguiamba
↓ 78'
M
11
D. Kocyla
↓ 66'
M
37
S. Kerk
↓ 78'
M
7
O. Kubiak
↓ 86'
M
19
V. Gutkovskis
F
Substitutes
25
A. Vlad
G
33
D. Abramowicz
D
6
L. Perea
↑ 78' 🟨 84'
M
2
M. Navarro
↑ 78'
D
22
M. Rzuchowski
M
31
N. Rusyn
↑ 66'
F
21
P. Szysz
↑ 86'
M
3
S. Szota
D
99
E. D. Espiau Hernandez
↑ 78'
F
Jagiellonia 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
50
S. Abramowicz
G
15
N. Wojtuszek
D
13
B. Vital
D
4
Y. Kobayashi
🟨 34'
D
23
G. Montoia
D
6
T. Romanczuk
🟨 24'
M
86
B. Mazurek
↓ 87'
M
7
A. Pozo
🎯 73' ↓ 79' 🟨 75'
M
11
J. Imaz
⚽ 9' ⚽ 38' ↓ 71'
M
77
K. Szmyt
↓ 87'
M
10
A. Pululu
🎯 9' 🎯 38' ↓ 71'
F
Substitutes
66
A. Damasiewicz
G
19
M. Nahuel
↑ 71'
M
21
S. Lozano
M
44
A. Konstantopoulos
D
85
E. Kozlowski
↑ 87'
M
9
D. Rallis
↑ 87'
F
80
Z. Zalewski
↑ 79' 🟨 80'
M
3
D. Stojinovic
D
70
A. Pelmard
D
27
B. Wdowik
D
14
S. Bazdar
⚽ 73' ↑ 71'
F
8
D. Drachal
M
Last matches: Arka Gdynia
18.07.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Luzino
2
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Olimpia Grudziądz
2
4
L
03.07.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Petrolul Ploiesti
2
0
W
28.06.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
GKS Katowice
0
2
L
23.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Raków Częstochowa
0
3
L
18.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
2
3
L
13.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Gornik Zabrze
0
0
D
08.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Lech Poznan
1
1
D
27.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Piast Gliwice
1
4
L
12.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Cracovia Krakow
2
2
D
07.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Zaglebie Lubin
3
1
W
22.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Korona Kielce
0
3
L
15.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Widzew Łódź
0
0
D
09.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Wisla Plock
3
0
W
05.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Radomiak Radom
1
3
L
27.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Lechia Gdansk
2
2
D
22.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
GKS Katowice
2
1
W
15.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Pogon Szczecin
0
1
L
07.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Legia Warszawa
2
2
D
20.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Radnicki NIS
2
0
W
Last matches: Jagiellonia
25.07.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Korona Kielce
1
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Jagiellonia
FC Nordsjaelland
2
1
W
16.07.26
Fri
Jagiellonia
Sparta Praha
1
0
W
12.07.26
Fri
Jagiellonia
Pafos
1
0
W
09.07.26
Fri
Jagiellonia
Polessya
0
0
D
04.07.26
Fri
Jagiellonia
Pogoń Siedlce
4
1
W
23.05.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Zaglebie Lubin
1
0
W
17.05.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
GKS Katowice
2
2
D
13.05.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Raków Częstochowa
2
0
W
09.05.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Pogon Szczecin
3
2
W
24.04.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
1
2
L
10.04.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Korona Kielce
1
1
D
04.04.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Lech Poznan
0
0
D
21.03.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Wisla Plock
1
2
L
17.03.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
GKS Katowice
2
1
W
14.03.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Piast Gliwice
1
2
L
06.03.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Lechia Gdansk
0
3
L
01.03.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Legia Warszawa
2
2
D
26.02.26
UEF
Jagiellonia
Fiorentina
4
2
W
22.02.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Radomiak Radom
1
1
D
H2H: Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia
19.04.26
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
3
L
18.10.25
H2H
Jagiellonia
Arka Gdynia
4
0
L
24.11.19
H2H
Jagiellonia
Arka Gdynia
2
0
L
19.07.19
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
3
L
30.11.18
H2H
Jagiellonia
Arka Gdynia
3
1
L
29.07.18
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
2
L
Last matches: Arka Gdynia
18.07.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Luzino
2
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Olimpia Grudziądz
2
4
L
03.07.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Petrolul Ploiesti
2
0
W
18.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
2
3
L
13.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Gornik Zabrze
0
0
D
07.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Zaglebie Lubin
3
1
W
15.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Widzew Łódź
0
0
D
27.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Lechia Gdansk
2
2
D
22.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
GKS Katowice
2
1
W
07.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Legia Warszawa
2
2
D
20.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Radnicki NIS
2
0
W
20.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
4
1
W
15.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Gangwon FC
4
0
W
10.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Csikszereda
1
1
D
06.12.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Motor Lublin
1
0
W
30.11.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Raków Częstochowa
1
4
L
09.11.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Lech Poznan
3
1
W
25.10.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Piast Gliwice
2
1
W
04.10.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Cracovia Krakow
2
1
W
20.09.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Korona Kielce
0
0
D
H2H at home: Arka Gdynia
19.04.26
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
3
L
19.07.19
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
3
L
29.07.18
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
2
L
Last matches: Jagiellonia
17.07.26
Fri
Jagiellonia
FC Nordsjaelland
2
1
W
09.07.26
Fri
Jagiellonia
Polessya
0
0
D
17.05.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
GKS Katowice
2
2
D
13.05.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Raków Częstochowa
2
0
W
10.04.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Korona Kielce
1
1
D
06.03.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Lechia Gdansk
0
3
L
26.02.26
UEF
Jagiellonia
Fiorentina
4
2
W
14.02.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Cracovia Krakow
0
0
D
31.01.26
Eks
Jagiellonia
Widzew Łódź
3
1
W
19.01.26
Fri
Jagiellonia
CSKA 1948
1
1
D
15.01.26
Fri
Jagiellonia
Lask Linz
1
4
L
18.12.25
UEF
Jagiellonia
AZ Alkmaar
0
0
D
14.12.25
Eks
Jagiellonia
Motor Lublin
1
1
D
07.12.25
Eks
Jagiellonia
Nieciecza
1
2
L
30.11.25
Eks
Jagiellonia
Zaglebie Lubin
0
0
D
09.11.25
Eks
Jagiellonia
Pogon Szczecin
2
1
W
06.11.25
UEF
Jagiellonia
Shkendija
1
1
D
26.10.25
Eks
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
1
2
L
23.10.25
UEF
Jagiellonia
Strasbourg
1
1
D
28.09.25
Eks
Jagiellonia
Lech Poznan
2
2
D
H2H away: Jagiellonia
19.04.26
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
3
W
19.07.19
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
3
W
29.07.18
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
2
W

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation