BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Araguaína
Match Timeline
Nacional AM
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
49'
Erick Varao
Nacional AM
🟥
90+4'
Alan Calbergue
Araguaína

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.5%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Araguaína Win 47.7%
Draw 15.5%
Nacional AM Win 36.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Araguaína2.22
Nacional AM1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Araguaína Araguaína
WWDLW
31 GF / 9 GA
Nacional AM Nacional AM
WLDWL
15 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
3.1
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
6
BTTS Yes
4
6
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Araguaína Araguaína 10 matches
Nacional AM Nacional AM 10 matches
Araguaína Statistic Nacional AM
5 Wins 6
3 Draws 2
2 Losses 2
31 Goals For 15
9 Goals Against 9
3.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
6 BTTS Yes 4
9 Over 1.5 6
6 Over 2.5 3
4 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nacional AM having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nacional AM. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Araguaína Analysis

Araguaína come into this tie placed 3 in their league with 18 points from 10 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 31:9 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Alan Calbergue (5 goals), Balotelli Kennedy (4 goals), G. Viana Pinheiro Rodrigues (4 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Nacional AM Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Nacional AM arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 20 points after 10 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 15:9 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Caio Mancha (3 goals), Anderson Alagoano (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Araguaína won 0 times, Nacional AM won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:1 from Araguaína's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.5%)
H2H summary: Araguaína wins 0, draws 1, Nacional AM wins 1
Last matches: Araguaína
28.06.26
Ser
Araguaína
Nacional AM
0
0
D
14.06.26
Ser
Araguaína
Galvez
9
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Guaporé
2
3
L
24.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Porto Velho
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Independência
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Humaitá
7
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Humaitá
6
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Independência
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Porto Velho
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Guaporé
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Galvez
2
1
W
Last matches: Nacional AM
04.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Capital Brasilia
1
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Araguaína
0
0
D
14.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
3
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
2
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
1
0
W
H2H: Araguaína vs Nacional AM
28.06.26
H2H
Nacional AM
Araguaína
0
0
D
21.06.26
H2H
Araguaína
Nacional AM
0
1
L
Last matches: Araguaína
14.06.26
Ser
Araguaína
Galvez
9
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Porto Velho
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Humaitá
6
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Independência
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Guaporé
1
1
D
H2H at home: Araguaína
21.06.26
H2H
Araguaína
Nacional AM
0
1
L
Last matches: Nacional AM
31.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
2
4
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
1
0
W
H2H away: Nacional AM
21.06.26
H2H
Araguaína
Nacional AM
0
1
W

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)