BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Aparecidense
Match Timeline
Primavera MG
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
45'
Mario Henrique
Aparecidense
46'
Caique
Primavera MG

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 75.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
75.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aparecidense Win 37.7%
Draw 24.4%
Primavera MG Win 37.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aparecidense1.25
Primavera MG1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aparecidense Aparecidense
WWDLW
10 GF / 9 GA
Primavera MG Primavera MG
WLDWL
8 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
5
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aparecidense Aparecidense 8 matches
Primavera MG Primavera MG 8 matches
Aparecidense Statistic Primavera MG
3 Wins 3
2 Draws 2
3 Losses 3
10 Goals For 8
9 Goals Against 10
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
5 BTTS Yes 3
6 Over 1.5 6
3 Over 2.5 2
2 Over 3.5 2
0 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Primavera MG having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Primavera MG.

Aparecidense Analysis

Placed 2 with 11 points from 7 outings, Aparecidense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 10:8 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Carlos Baje (3 goals), Ivan Junior (2 goals), Luan (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Primavera MG Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 11 points from 7 games, Primavera MG bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 8:6, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Caique (5 goals), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Aparecidense won 1 times, Primavera MG won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:2 from Aparecidense's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.6%)
H2H summary: Aparecidense wins 1, draws 1, Primavera MG wins 0
Last matches: Aparecidense
27.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
0
4
L
20.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
2
2
D
24.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
3
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
0
2
L
23.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
0
2
L
17.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
3
2
W
09.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
02.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
26.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Mixto
0
0
D
12.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goianésia
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Porto Velho
7
0
W
29.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiânia
3
0
W
Last matches: Primavera MG
07.06.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Brasiliense
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Gama
0
4
L
17.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Luverdense
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Inhumas
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Inhumas
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Luverdense
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Gama
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Aparecidense
1
3
L
05.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Brasiliense
1
1
D
H2H: Aparecidense vs Primavera MG
30.05.26
H2H
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
12.04.26
H2H
Primavera MG
Aparecidense
1
3
W
Last matches: Aparecidense
20.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
3
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
0
2
L
23.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
0
2
L
09.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
26.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
12.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goianésia
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Porto Velho
7
0
W
14.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Ceilândia
2
0
W
31.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
4
1
W
17.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiânia
3
1
W
26.04.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Mixto
0
0
D
H2H at home: Aparecidense
30.05.26
H2H
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
Last matches: Primavera MG
23.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Gama
0
4
L
09.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Inhumas
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Luverdense
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Brasiliense
1
1
D
H2H away: Primavera MG
30.05.26
H2H
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
1
1
D

Standings

Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)