BRAZIL SERIE C
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Etelvino Mendonca
Referee: W. Silva Dos Santos
AO Itabaiana
Match Timeline
Ituano
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
Martha
AO Itabaiana
🟨
10'
Lucao
AO Itabaiana
🔄
22'
Everton Kanela ↔ L. F. Andrade
AO Itabaiana
🟨
37'
Thassio
Ituano
45'
Leilson
AO Itabaiana
🔄
46'
Thassio ↔ Bruno Alves
Ituano
🔄
46'
Gabriel Razera ↔ Bruno Mezenga
Ituano
49'
Tiaguinho
Ituano
🔄
67'
Martha ↔ Leo Passos
Ituano
🔄
71'
Rodrigo Alves ↔ Renatinho
AO Itabaiana
🔄
71'
Ricardo Cerqueira ↔ Isaque
AO Itabaiana
🔄
71'
Karl ↔ Caio Felipe
AO Itabaiana
🔄
71'
Neto Berola ↔ Marlinho
Ituano
🟨
73'
Ituano
Ituano
🟨
80'
AO Itabaiana
AO Itabaiana
🔄
82'
Matheus Mancini ↔ Carlao
Ituano
🔄
84'
Leilson ↔ Gustavo Fagundes
AO Itabaiana
88'
Bruno Mezenga
Ituano
🟨
90+1'
Ituano
Ituano
🟨
90+5'
Ituano
Ituano

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 79.9%
Odds 2.84
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 2.00
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 2.34
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
79.9%
2.84
BTTS Yes
58.2%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
2.34
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.07
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
AO Itabaiana Win 11%
Draw 9.1%
Ituano Win 79.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
AO Itabaiana0.85
Ituano1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana
WWDLW
6 GF / 13 GA
Ituano Ituano
WLDWL
13 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
0.67
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
4
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana 9 matches
Ituano Ituano 9 matches
AO Itabaiana Statistic Ituano
1 Wins 5
3 Draws 1
5 Losses 3
6 Goals For 13
13 Goals Against 10
0.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
4 BTTS Yes 4
4 Over 1.5 7
3 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Ituano's more proactive style and AO Itabaiana's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ituano. Ituano carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 16 points while AO Itabaiana sit 19 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ituano having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

AO Itabaiana Analysis

AO Itabaiana approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 6 points from 9 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 6:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Everton Kanela (3 goals), Isaque (1 goals), Karl (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ituano Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 16 points from 9 games, Ituano bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 13:10, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Neto Berola (3 goals), Gabriel Razera (2 goals), Alason Carioca (1 goals), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, AO Itabaiana won 2 times, Ituano won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:6 from AO Itabaiana's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.25 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.9%)
H2H summary: AO Itabaiana wins 2, draws 1, Ituano wins 1

Lineups

AO Itabaiana
Formation
Ituano
Jefferson
Jefferson
Ricardo Cerqueira
Ricardo Cerqueira
Lucao
Lucao
Ligger
Ligger
Fabricio Moura
Fabricio Moura
Tarcisio
Tarcisio
Lucas Bessa
Lucas Bessa
Karl
Karl
Leilson
Leilson
Everton Kanela
Everton Kanela
Rodrigo Alves
Rodrigo Alves
Saulo
Saulo
Lucas Mota
Lucas Mota
Leo Coltro
Leo Coltro
Matheus Mancini
Matheus Mancini
Gabriel William
Gabriel William
Tiaguinho
Tiaguinho
Thassio
Thassio
Martha
Martha
Gabriel Razera
Gabriel Razera
Guilherme Xavier
Guilherme Xavier
Neto Berola
Neto Berola
AO Itabaiana 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
Jefferson
2
Ricardo Cerqueira
↓ 71'
3
Lucao
🟨 10'
4
Ligger
5
Fabricio Moura
6
Tarcisio
23
Lucas Bessa
8
Karl
↓ 71'
7
Leilson
⚽ 45' ↓ 84'
9
Everton Kanela
↓ 22'
10
Rodrigo Alves
↓ 71'
Substitutes
12
Geaze
11
Renatinho
↑ 71'
13
Gustavo Fagundes
↑ 84'
14
Gustavo Cintra
15
Isaque
↑ 71'
16
Tito
17
Elimar
18
Pedro Igor
19
L. F. Andrade
↑ 22'
20
Cleiton
21
Caio Felipe
↑ 71'
22
Dione
Ituano 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
Saulo
2
Lucas Mota
3
Leo Coltro
4
Matheus Mancini
↓ 82'
5
Gabriel William
6
Tiaguinho
⚽ 49'
7
Thassio
↓ 46' 🟨 37'
8
Martha
⚽ 8' ↓ 67'
9
Gabriel Razera
↓ 46'
10
Guilherme Xavier
11
Neto Berola
↓ 71'
Substitutes
12
J. Pantera
13
Victor Reis
14
Leandro Sergipe
15
Carlao
↑ 82'
16
Guilherme Dal Pian
17
Bruno Alves
↑ 46'
18
Nelsinho
19
Bruno Mezenga
⚽ 88' ↑ 46'
20
Leo Souza
21
Leo Passos
↑ 67'
22
Marlinho
↑ 71'
Last matches: AO Itabaiana
30.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Inter De Limeira
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Figueirense
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Floresta
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Maringá
2
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Paysandu
1
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Guarani Campinas
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ypiranga-RS
1
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
Last matches: Ituano
30.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Caxias
1
2
L
25.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Botafogo PB
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Guarani Campinas
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Confiança
1
0
W
05.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Ypiranga-RS
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Maringá
4
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Inter De Limeira
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Amazonas
0
3
L
05.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Anápolis
2
0
W
H2H: AO Itabaiana vs Ituano
14.06.26
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
2
2
D
27.07.25
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
3
1
W
20.07.19
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
1
0
W
13.07.19
H2H
Ituano
AO Itabaiana
3
1
L
Last matches: AO Itabaiana
30.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Floresta
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Paysandu
1
4
L
12.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ypiranga-RS
1
2
L
H2H at home: AO Itabaiana
14.06.26
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
2
2
D
27.07.25
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
3
1
W
20.07.19
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
1
0
W
Last matches: Ituano
30.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Caxias
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Guarani Campinas
3
1
W
05.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Ypiranga-RS
0
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Inter De Limeira
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Amazonas
0
3
L
H2H away: Ituano
14.06.26
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
2
2
D
27.07.25
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
3
1
L
20.07.19
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.84
Draw 2.87
Home 2.56
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.25 1.27
Over 1.5 1.42
Over 1.75 1.54
Over 2.0 1.76
Over 2.25 2.06
Over 2.5 2.34
Over 2.75 2.78
Over 3.0 3.56
Under 1.25 3.48
Under 1.5 2.71
Under 1.75 2.39
Under 2.0 2.05
Under 2.25 1.72
Under 2.5 1.55
Under 2.75 1.40
Under 3.0 1.26
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 2.90
Home 2.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.00
Home 3.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.25
Home 3.10
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.44
Over 2.5 2.35
Over 3.5 4.33
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 12.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Under 0.5 7.00
Under 1.5 2.62
Under 2.5 1.57
Under 3.5 1.20
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.74
Draw 2.92
Home 2.53
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 1.85
Home 3.28
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.12
Draw 2.21
Home 2.84
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 0.75 1.07
Over 1.0 1.09
Over 1.25 1.25
Over 1.5 1.41
Over 1.75 1.50
Over 2.0 1.68
Over 2.25 1.95
Over 2.5 2.21
Over 2.75 2.59
Over 3.0 3.34
Over 3.25 3.70
Over 3.5 4.05
Over 3.75 5.09
Over 4.0 7.20
Over 4.25 7.50
Over 4.5 7.80
Over 5.5 23.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Under 0.5 6.35
Under 0.75 5.79
Under 1.0 5.25
Under 1.25 3.28
Under 1.5 2.65
Under 1.75 2.28
Under 2.0 1.96
Under 2.25 1.69
Under 2.5 1.53
Under 2.75 1.39
Under 3.0 1.24
Under 3.25 1.20
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 3.75 1.10
Under 4.0 1.03
Under 4.25 1.03
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.35
Draw 2.95
Home 2.88
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.02
Home 3.65
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 2.28
Home 3.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.0 1.12
Over 1.25 1.27
Over 1.5 1.43
Over 1.75 1.56
Over 2.0 1.77
Over 2.25 2.07
Over 2.5 2.38
Over 2.75 2.80
Over 3.0 3.70
Over 3.25 4.10
Over 3.5 4.40
Under 0.5 6.25
Under 1.0 5.25
Under 1.25 3.30
Under 1.5 2.60
Under 1.75 2.28
Under 2.0 1.94
Under 2.25 1.67
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 2.75 1.36
Under 3.0 1.22
Under 3.25 1.19
Under 3.5 1.16

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 22:8 14 21
W W W L W
2 10 5 3 2 15:10 5 18
L D W L W
3 10 5 3 2 13:10 3 18
W W D W L
4 10 5 2 3 17:13 4 17
L L W L W
5 10 5 2 3 15:12 3 17
D L W W W
6 10 5 1 4 12:12 0 16
W L L L L
7 10 4 4 2 10:9 1 16
W D W W D
8 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D W D
9 10 4 3 3 9:7 2 15
W D D W W
10 10 4 3 3 12:11 1 15
L W L W D
11 10 4 2 4 19:21 -2 14
D L D W L
12 10 4 2 4 7:9 -2 14
W W W L D
13 10 4 2 4 10:14 -4 14
W W D L W
14 10 3 4 3 9:11 -2 13
D D D L W
15 10 3 2 5 13:16 -3 11
D L L L L
16 10 2 5 3 12:10 2 11
L D L D D
17 10 3 1 6 11:15 -4 10
D W L L L
18 10 2 1 7 4:9 -5 7
L L D W L
19 10 1 4 5 8:15 -7 7
D L D W D
20 10 1 2 7 6:14 -8 5
L D L D L
Play-offs
Relegation