BRAZIL SERIE C
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Etelvino Mendonca
AO Itabaiana
Match Timeline
Ferroviária
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
Rhuan
Ferroviária
🟨
33'
Guilherme Ferreira
Ferroviária
🟨
37'
Gustavo Crecci
AO Itabaiana
57'
Cleiton
AO Itabaiana
🔄
64'
Fau ↔ Allison
Ferroviária
🔄
64'
Ricardinho ↔ Rafael Carillho
Ferroviária
🟨
67'
Rhuan
Ferroviária
🟥
67'
Rhuan
Ferroviária
🔄
67'
Ricardo Cerqueira ↔ Isaque
AO Itabaiana
🔄
72'
M. Thiago ↔ Eduardo Oliveira
Ferroviária
🔄
72'
M. Vinicius ↔ Douglas Skilo
Ferroviária
🟨
73'
Karl
AO Itabaiana
🟨
75'
Felipe Rodrigues
Ferroviária
🔄
76'
Karl ↔ Fabricio Oya
AO Itabaiana
🔄
76'
Cleiton ↔ Elimar
AO Itabaiana
🔄
78'
Felipe Rodrigues ↔ Raoni
Ferroviária
🔄
85'
Tarcisio ↔ Tito
AO Itabaiana
🔄
85'
Lucas Bessa ↔ Caio Felipe
AO Itabaiana

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 71.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
71.9%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
AO Itabaiana Win 16.2%
Draw 11.9%
Ferroviária Win 71.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
AO Itabaiana0.77
Ferroviária1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana
WWDLW
8 GF / 17 GA
Ferroviária Ferroviária
WLDWL
12 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
0.73
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
5
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana 11 matches
Ferroviária Ferroviária 11 matches
AO Itabaiana Statistic Ferroviária
1 Wins 5
4 Draws 4
6 Losses 2
8 Goals For 12
17 Goals Against 9
0.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
5 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 6
4 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Ferroviária's more proactive style and AO Itabaiana's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ferroviária having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ferroviária. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Ferroviária carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 16 points while AO Itabaiana sit 19 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

AO Itabaiana Analysis

With 7 points from 10 games and a place of 19, AO Itabaiana still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 8:15 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Everton Kanela (3 goals), Isaque (1 goals), Karl (1 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ferroviária Analysis

From their first 10 matches, Ferroviária have collected 16 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 10:9 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Denilson (5 goals), Allison (3 goals), Vitor Barreto (2 goals), with creative support from Denilson (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, AO Itabaiana won 1 times, Ferroviária won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from AO Itabaiana's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
H2H summary: AO Itabaiana wins 1, draws 0, Ferroviária wins 0

Lineups

AO Itabaiana
Formation
Ferroviária
Jefferson
Jefferson
Ricardo Cerqueira
Ricardo Cerqueira
Gustavo Fagundes
Gustavo Fagundes
Ligger
Ligger
Gustavo Crecci
Gustavo Crecci
Tarcisio
Tarcisio
Lucas Bessa
Lucas Bessa
Karl
Karl
Leilson
Leilson
Cleiton
Cleiton
Rodrigo Alves
Rodrigo Alves
Denis Junior
Denis Junior
Felipe Rodrigues
Felipe Rodrigues
Guilherme Ferreira
Guilherme Ferreira
M. Vinicius
M. Vinicius
Rhuan
Rhuan
Ricardinho
Ricardinho
Alencar
Alencar
Albano
Albano
Fau
Fau
Denilson Silva
Denilson Silva
M. Thiago
M. Thiago
AO Itabaiana 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
Jefferson
2
Ricardo Cerqueira
↓ 67'
3
Gustavo Fagundes
4
Ligger
5
Gustavo Crecci
🟨 37'
6
Tarcisio
↓ 85'
23
Lucas Bessa
↓ 85'
8
Karl
↓ 76' 🟨 73'
7
Leilson
9
Cleiton
⚽ 57' ↓ 76'
10
Rodrigo Alves
Substitutes
12
Geaze
11
Renatinho
13
Lucao
14
Gustavo Cintra
15
Isaque
↑ 67'
16
Tito
↑ 85'
17
Fabricio Oya
↑ 76'
18
Elimar
↑ 76'
19
Vitinho
20
Manoel
21
Caio Felipe
↑ 85'
22
Dudu
Ferroviária 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
31
Denis Junior
22
Felipe Rodrigues
↓ 78' 🟨 75'
4
Guilherme Ferreira
🟨 33'
51
M. Vinicius
↓ 72'
6
Rhuan
🟨 22' 🟨 67' 🟥 67'
5
Ricardinho
↓ 64'
8
Alencar
10
Albano
7
Fau
↓ 64'
9
Denilson Silva
19
M. Thiago
↓ 72'
Substitutes
34
Gustavo Jundi
14
Jhonatan Garcia
15
Fernandinho
17
M. Cantarelli
23
Schilling Arthur
25
Vinni Faria
29
Eduardo Oliveira
↑ 72'
30
Raoni
↑ 78'
36
Douglas Skilo
↑ 72'
38
Allison
↑ 64'
18
Rafael Carillho
↑ 64'
Last matches: AO Itabaiana
13.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Brusque
1
0
W
07.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Amazonas
2
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Anápolis
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Inter De Limeira
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Figueirense
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Floresta
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Maringá
2
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Paysandu
1
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Guarani Campinas
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ypiranga-RS
1
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
Last matches: Ferroviária
12.07.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Ituano
3
1
W
04.07.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Caxias
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Inter De Limeira
2
0
W
15.06.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Barra
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Santa Cruz
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Amazonas
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Brusque
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Volta Redonda
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Anápolis
1
0
W
27.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Guarani Campinas
2
2
D
20.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Floresta
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Botafogo PB
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Maringá
2
3
L
H2H: AO Itabaiana vs Ferroviária
27.06.26
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Ferroviária
1
0
W
Last matches: AO Itabaiana
13.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Brusque
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Floresta
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Paysandu
1
4
L
12.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ypiranga-RS
1
2
L
H2H at home: AO Itabaiana
27.06.26
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Ferroviária
1
0
W
Last matches: Ferroviária
12.07.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Ituano
3
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Santa Cruz
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Amazonas
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Volta Redonda
0
0
D
20.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Floresta
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Maringá
2
3
L
H2H away: Ferroviária
27.06.26
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Ferroviária
1
0
L