BRAZIL SERIE C
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Etelvino Mendonca
Referee: M. Pereira
AO Itabaiana
Match Timeline
Brusque
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
44'
Renatinho
AO Itabaiana
🔄
46'
Alvaro ↔ Marlyson
Brusque
🟨
54'
Tarcisio
AO Itabaiana
🟨
59'
Fabricio Moura
AO Itabaiana
🔄
62'
Renatinho ↔ Dyego
AO Itabaiana
🔄
62'
Cleiton ↔ Valdenilson
AO Itabaiana
🔄
68'
Rodrigo Alves ↔ Everton Kanela
AO Itabaiana
🔄
70'
Gazao ↔ Ariel
Brusque
🔄
80'
Tarcisio ↔ Tito
AO Itabaiana
🔄
80'
Leilson ↔ Elimar
AO Itabaiana
🔄
80'
Raimar ↔ Davi Gabriel
Brusque
🔄
80'
Joao Pedro ↔ Clinton
Brusque
🟨
85'
Ligger
AO Itabaiana
🔄
86'
Adrianinho ↔ Renan
Brusque

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.4%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.4%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
AO Itabaiana Win 27.5%
Draw 18.1%
Brusque Win 54.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
AO Itabaiana0.94
Brusque1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana
WWDLW
11 GF / 17 GA
Brusque Brusque
WLDWL
20 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
0.85
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
5
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana 13 matches
Brusque Brusque 13 matches
AO Itabaiana Statistic Brusque
3 Wins 7
4 Draws 3
6 Losses 3
11 Goals For 20
17 Goals Against 14
0.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
5 BTTS Yes 8
7 Over 1.5 10
4 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Brusque's more proactive style and AO Itabaiana's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Brusque carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 21 points while AO Itabaiana sit 19 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Brusque having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Brusque. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

AO Itabaiana Analysis

AO Itabaiana sit 19 with 10 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 9:17, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Brusque Analysis

Brusque arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 21 points after 12 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 17:13 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, AO Itabaiana won 1 times, Brusque won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from AO Itabaiana's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.9%)
H2H summary: AO Itabaiana wins 1, draws 1, Brusque wins 0

Lineups

AO Itabaiana
Formation
Brusque
Jefferson
Jefferson
Ricardo Cerqueira
Ricardo Cerqueira
Gustavo Fagundes
Gustavo Fagundes
Ligger
Ligger
Gustavo Crecci
Gustavo Crecci
Tarcisio
Tarcisio
Fabricio Moura
Fabricio Moura
Renatinho
Renatinho
Leilson
Leilson
Cleiton
Cleiton
Rodrigo Alves
Rodrigo Alves
Matheus Nogueira
Matheus Nogueira
Jeferson
Jeferson
Ryan Santos
Ryan Santos
Cipriano
Cipriano
Raimar
Raimar
Bernardo
Bernardo
Gazao
Gazao
Petterson Novaes
Petterson Novaes
Joao Pedro
Joao Pedro
Adrianinho
Adrianinho
Alvaro
Alvaro
AO Itabaiana 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
Jefferson
2
Ricardo Cerqueira
3
Gustavo Fagundes
4
Ligger
🟨 85'
5
Gustavo Crecci
6
Tarcisio
↓ 80' 🟨 54'
17
Fabricio Moura
🟨 59'
11
Renatinho
⚽ 44' ↓ 62'
7
Leilson
↓ 80'
9
Cleiton
↓ 62'
10
Rodrigo Alves
↓ 68'
Substitutes
12
Geaze
8
Dyego
↑ 62'
13
Lucao
14
Gustavo Cintra
15
Isaque
16
Tito
↑ 80'
18
Elimar
↑ 80'
19
Everton Kanela
↑ 68'
20
Valdenilson
↑ 62'
21
Caio Felipe
22
Dequinha
23
Julio Lima
Brusque 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
Matheus Nogueira
2
Jeferson
3
Ryan Santos
4
Cipriano
6
Raimar
↓ 80'
5
Bernardo
7
Gazao
↓ 70'
11
Petterson Novaes
10
Joao Pedro
↓ 80'
17
Adrianinho
↓ 86'
9
Alvaro
↓ 46'
Substitutes
12
Paulo Gianezini
8
Jonatan Lucca
13
Pedro Medeiros
14
Rafael Milhorim
15
Alex Paulino
16
Davi Gabriel
↑ 80'
18
Marlyson
↑ 46'
19
Macario
20
Ariel
↑ 70'
21
Renan
↑ 86'
22
Clinton
↑ 80'
Last matches: AO Itabaiana
29.08.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Botafogo PB
0
2
L
23.08.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Maranhão
1
4
L
16.08.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Barra
0
1
L
09.08.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Caxias
0
2
L
25.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Confiança
1
1
D
07.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Amazonas
2
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ferroviária
1
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Anápolis
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Inter De Limeira
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Figueirense
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Floresta
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Maringá
2
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Paysandu
1
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Guarani Campinas
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ypiranga-RS
1
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
Last matches: Brusque
29.08.26
Ser
Brusque
Guarani Campinas
2
2
D
23.08.26
Ser
Brusque
Amazonas
1
1
D
15.08.26
Ser
Brusque
Inter De Limeira
3
2
W
09.08.26
Ser
Brusque
Maranhão
1
2
L
26.07.26
Ser
Brusque
Ituano
1
0
W
06.07.26
Ser
Brusque
Figueirense
3
1
W
30.06.26
Ser
Brusque
Botafogo PB
0
2
L
21.06.26
Ser
Brusque
Floresta
2
1
W
14.06.26
Ser
Brusque
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
01.06.26
Ser
Brusque
Barra
2
2
D
24.05.26
Ser
Brusque
Anápolis
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Brusque
Ferroviária
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Brusque
Ypiranga-RS
3
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Brusque
Volta Redonda
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Brusque
Confiança
2
1
W
20.04.26
Ser
Brusque
Maringá
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Brusque
Paysandu
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Brusque
Caxias
2
1
W
H2H: AO Itabaiana vs Brusque
13.07.26
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Brusque
1
0
W
04.08.25
H2H
Brusque
AO Itabaiana
0
0
D
Last matches: AO Itabaiana
29.08.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Botafogo PB
0
2
L
09.08.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Caxias
0
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ferroviária
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Floresta
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Paysandu
1
4
L
12.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ypiranga-RS
1
2
L
H2H at home: AO Itabaiana
13.07.26
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Brusque
1
0
W
Last matches: Brusque
29.08.26
Ser
Brusque
Guarani Campinas
2
2
D
09.08.26
Ser
Brusque
Maranhão
1
2
L
30.06.26
Ser
Brusque
Botafogo PB
0
2
L
01.06.26
Ser
Brusque
Barra
2
2
D
17.05.26
Ser
Brusque
Ferroviária
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Brusque
Volta Redonda
1
1
D
20.04.26
Ser
Brusque
Maringá
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Brusque
Paysandu
1
1
D
H2H away: Brusque
13.07.26
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Brusque
1
0
L

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
W W D D W
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D D W L W
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W L W D D
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W W D L D
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
W W W L D
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D L W L
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
L W L W L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
D W L D L
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation