TURKEY › SüPER LIG
17.05.2026 17:00
Corendon Airlines Park
Referee: H. U. Meler
Antalyaspor
Match Timeline
Kocaelispor
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
17'
Dan Agyei
Kocaelispor
🟨
38'
Habib Keita
Kocaelispor
🔄
38'
H. Keita ↔ J. Nonge
Kocaelispor
🟨
41'
Ahmet Oğuz
Kocaelispor
🔄
46'
J. Ceesay ↔ N. Storm
Antalyaspor
🔄
46'
A. Oguz ↔ T. Bingol
Kocaelispor
🟨
54'
Kenneth Paal
Antalyaspor
🟨
61'
Tayfur Bingöl
Kocaelispor
🟨
63'
Ramzi Safouri
Antalyaspor
🔄
64'
D. Churlinov ↔ S. Dursun
Kocaelispor
🔄
67'
R. Safuri ↔ Y. Boli
Antalyaspor
🟨
71'
Dan Agyei
Kocaelispor
🔄
71'
D. Agyei ↔ E. Narin
Kocaelispor
🟨
73'
Bünyamin Balcı
Antalyaspor
🟨
73'
Abdullah Yiğiter
Antalyaspor
🟨
74'
Show
Kocaelispor
🟨
77'
Soner Dikmen
Antalyaspor
🟨
79'
Samuel Ballet
Antalyaspor
⚽
79'
S. Ballet · Assist: S. van de Streek
Antalyaspor
🔄
87'
A. Omur ↔ B. Ozturk
Antalyaspor
🟨
90+7'
Rigoberto Rivas
Kocaelispor

Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 55%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
40%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
55%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Antalyaspor Win 35.1%
Draw 18.1%
Kocaelispor Win 46.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Antalyaspor1.03
Kocaelispor1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Antalyaspor Antalyaspor
WWDLW
32 GF / 55 GA
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
WLDWL
26 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
0.79
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
17
BTTS Yes
13
17
Over 2.5
9
3.45
Shots on Goal
2.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 33 matches
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 33 matches
Antalyaspor Statistic Kocaelispor
7 Wins 9
8 Draws 10
18 Losses 14
32 Goals For 26
55 Goals Against 37
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 0.79
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
17 BTTS Yes 13
22 Over 1.5 19
17 Over 2.5 9
10 Over 3.5 4
8 Clean Sheets 10
13 Failed To Score 14
3.45 Shots On Goal 2.88
9.52 Total Shots 10.18
4.15 Corners 4.18
45.1% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kocaelispor. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Antalyaspor expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Kocaelispor in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kocaelispor having the stronger overall control. Antalyaspor have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Antalyaspor Analysis

With 29 points from 33 games and a place of 16, Antalyaspor still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 32:55, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through S. van de Streek (6 goals), N. Storm (4 goals), S. Dikmen (4 goals), with creative support from R. Safuri (5 assists), B. Balci (4 assists), S. van de Streek (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kocaelispor Analysis

Kocaelispor are currently 11 in the standings with 37 points from 33 matches. The record of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 26:37 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through B. Petkovic (7 goals), Serdar Dursun (6 goals), D. Agyei (5 goals), with creative support from D. Churlinov (3 assists), Serdar Dursun (2 assists), Tayfur Bingöl (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Antalyaspor won 2 times, Kocaelispor won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:4 from Antalyaspor's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.9%)
Predicted formations: Antalyaspor 4-1-4-1 / Kocaelispor 4-3-3
Missing players: Antalyaspor 3, Kocaelispor 4
H2H summary: Antalyaspor wins 2, draws 0, Kocaelispor wins 2

Standings

Super Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 5 5 77:30 47 77
L W L W W
2 34 21 11 2 77:37 40 74
D W W L D
3 34 20 9 5 61:39 22 69
L W D L D
4 34 17 9 8 59:40 19 60
D L W D L
5 34 16 9 9 58:35 23 57
W W L W D
6 34 14 13 7 42:32 10 55
L W D W D
7 34 13 12 9 46:45 1 51
W L W W W
8 34 10 11 13 46:52 -6 41
D L W L D
9 34 10 10 14 43:50 -7 40
L L L W W
10 34 9 10 15 26:38 -12 37
L L D L D
11 34 7 16 11 41:41 0 37
L W D L L
12 34 9 10 15 43:58 -15 37
L L L L W
13 34 8 11 15 33:49 -16 35
W L D L W
14 34 9 7 18 36:47 -11 34
W W L W L
15 34 8 9 17 33:48 -15 33
D W D W W
16 34 8 8 18 33:55 -22 32
W L D L L
17 34 6 12 16 27:62 -35 30
W L D W L
18 34 8 6 20 31:54 -23 30
W W W D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation