BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
América RJ
Match Timeline
XV de Piracicaba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
24'
Joao Victor
XV de Piracicaba
31'
Emerson Carioca
América RJ

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 79.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
79.9%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
América RJ Win 38.6%
Draw 20.2%
XV de Piracicaba Win 41.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
América RJ1.02
XV de Piracicaba1.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
América RJ América RJ
WWDLW
11 GF / 21 GA
XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba
WLDWL
14 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.4
2.1
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
5
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

América RJ América RJ 10 matches
XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba 10 matches
América RJ Statistic XV de Piracicaba
3 Wins 4
3 Draws 5
4 Losses 1
11 Goals For 14
21 Goals Against 9
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
2.1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
5 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 3
6 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together XV de Piracicaba's more proactive style and América RJ's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors XV de Piracicaba. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward XV de Piracicaba having the stronger overall control.

América RJ Analysis

América RJ come into this tie placed 4 in their league with 12 points from 10 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats with goals at 11:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Emerson Carioca (2 goals), Nathan Palafoz (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

XV de Piracicaba Analysis

XV de Piracicaba come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 17 points from 10 matches. The return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 14:9 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by David Ribeiro (3 goals), Antonio Gabriel (2 goals), Henry (2 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, which supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, América RJ won 0 times, XV de Piracicaba won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:3 from América RJ's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.9%)
H2H summary: América RJ wins 0, draws 1, XV de Piracicaba wins 1
Last matches: América RJ
27.06.26
Ser
América RJ
XV de Piracicaba
0
2
L
06.06.26
Ser
América RJ
Água Santa
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Portuguesa RJ
2
2
D
23.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Portuguesa
1
4
L
16.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Madureira
3
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Pouso Alegre
0
3
L
02.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Pouso Alegre
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
América RJ
Madureira
3
2
W
18.04.26
Ser
América RJ
Portuguesa
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
América RJ
Portuguesa RJ
0
4
L
04.04.26
Ser
América RJ
Água Santa
0
4
L
Last matches: XV de Piracicaba
11.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
4
L
27.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
2
0
W
07.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
4
1
W
H2H: América RJ vs XV de Piracicaba
27.06.26
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
2
0
L
20.06.26
H2H
América RJ
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
Last matches: América RJ
06.06.26
Ser
América RJ
Água Santa
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Madureira
3
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Pouso Alegre
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
América RJ
Portuguesa
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
América RJ
Portuguesa RJ
0
4
L
H2H at home: América RJ
20.06.26
H2H
América RJ
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
Last matches: XV de Piracicaba
04.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
4
L
07.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
2
2
D
H2H away: XV de Piracicaba
20.06.26
H2H
América RJ
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)