BRAZIL SERIE B
18.04.2026 21:00
Arena Independência
Referee: G. Bauermann
America Mineiro
Match Timeline
Sport Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
Augusto Pucci
Sport Recife
🟨
32'
Iury Castilho
Sport Recife
🔄
46'
Ze Lucas ↔ Biel Fonseca
Sport Recife
🔄
46'
Augusto ↔ Madson
Sport Recife
🟨
51'
Rafael Barcelos
America Mineiro
🔄
61'
Iury Castilho ↔ Marlon Douglas
Sport Recife
🔄
62'
Marcelo Ajul ↔ Habraao
Sport Recife
🔄
74'
Yago Santos ↔ Jhonatan Lima
America Mineiro
🔄
74'
Dalbert ↔ Paulinho
America Mineiro
🔄
84'
M. Segovia ↔ Ale
America Mineiro
🔄
84'
Gonzalo Mastriani ↔ Paulo Victor
America Mineiro
🔄
84'
Felipe Amaral ↔ Leo Alaba
America Mineiro
🟨
85'
Madson
Sport Recife
🟨
90+3'
Zé Gabriel
Sport Recife

America Mineiro vs Sport Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 70.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 79.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
70.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
79.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.9%
-
Probability Distribution
America Mineiro Win 18.5%
Draw 11.1%
Sport Recife Win 70.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
America Mineiro0.85
Sport Recife1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
America Mineiro America Mineiro
WWDLW
3 GF / 9 GA
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WLDWL
5 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
0.75
Average Goals Scored
1.25
2.25
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
2
4.75
Shots on Goal
5.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

America Mineiro America Mineiro 4 matches
Sport Recife Sport Recife 4 matches
America Mineiro Statistic Sport Recife
0 Wins 1
1 Draws 3
3 Losses 0
3 Goals For 5
9 Goals Against 4
0.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
2.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 3
4 Over 1.5 3
3 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 1
0 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 1
4.75 Shots On Goal 5.5
15.25 Total Shots 14.25
7.5 Corners 5.25
63% Ball Possession 54.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Sport Recife's more proactive style and America Mineiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Sport Recife carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 11 with 6 points while America Mineiro sit 20 on 1, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. America Mineiro have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with America Mineiro expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Sport Recife in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sport Recife having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sport Recife.

America Mineiro Analysis

America Mineiro sit 20 with 1 points after 4 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 3:9 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gonzalo Mastriani (3 goals), with creative support from Willian Bigode (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sport Recife Analysis

Sport Recife sit 11 with 6 points after 4 league matches. The record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 5:4 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Chrystian Barletta (2 goals), Pedro Perotti (2 goals), de Pena Carlos (1 goals), with creative support from Augusto (1 assists), Felipinho (1 assists), Marlon Douglas (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, America Mineiro won 7 times, Sport Recife won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:14 from America Mineiro's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.79 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.9%)
Predicted formations: America Mineiro 4-1-4-1 / Sport Recife 4-3-3
H2H summary: America Mineiro wins 7, draws 4, Sport Recife wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 13 7 5 26:13 13 46
D W W D W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 25 5 7 13 29:36 -7 22
D L D L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
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