BRAZIL SERIE B
30.08.2026 19:00
Arena Independência
Referee: B. Vasconcelos
America Mineiro
Match Timeline
Ponte Preta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
45+2'
Matheus Souza Santos
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
Otavio Goncalves ↔ F. Elizari
America Mineiro
🔄
46'
Guilherme Parede ↔ R. Pineiro
America Mineiro
47'
Willian Bigode · Assist: F. Elizari
America Mineiro
59'
R. Pineiro · Assist: T. Ostchega
America Mineiro
🔄
64'
Miguel Morais ↔ C. Coelho
Ponte Preta
🔄
64'
R. Andrade ↔ Thevyn
Ponte Preta
🔄
68'
Nicolas Araujo ↔ C. Vinicius
Ponte Preta
🔄
71'
Paulo Victor ↔ Marcelo Macola
America Mineiro
🔄
79'
Julio Cesar ↔ G. Italo
America Mineiro
🔄
79'
Juan Rodrigues ↔ G. Cicala
Ponte Preta
🔄
83'
Gustavo Barreto ↔ Jorge Jimenez
America Mineiro
🟨
90+7'
Gabriel Cicala
Ponte Preta

America Mineiro vs Ponte Preta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.4%
Odds 1.12
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 2.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.37
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.4%
1.12
BTTS Yes
63.2%
2.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.37
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.4%
1.12
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
America Mineiro Win 65.4%
Draw 23.8%
Ponte Preta Win 10.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
America Mineiro1.23
Ponte Preta1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
America Mineiro America Mineiro
WWDLW
16 GF / 42 GA
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WLDWL
16 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
0.67
Average Goals Scored
0.67
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
2.08
12
BTTS Yes
12
14
Over 2.5
12
4.21
Shots on Goal
3.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

America Mineiro America Mineiro 24 matches
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 24 matches
America Mineiro Statistic Ponte Preta
2 Wins 2
5 Draws 4
17 Losses 18
16 Goals For 16
42 Goals Against 50
0.67 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 2.08
12 BTTS Yes 12
18 Over 1.5 20
14 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 2
10 Failed To Score 11
4.21 Shots On Goal 3.38
12.46 Total Shots 10.58
5.42 Corners 4.83
53.5% Ball Possession 43.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ponte Preta. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with America Mineiro expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Ponte Preta in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ponte Preta having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

America Mineiro Analysis

America Mineiro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 11 points from 23 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 16 defeats with a 16:39 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gonzalo Mastriani (4 goals), Matías Segovia (2 goals), Paulo Victor (2 goals), with creative support from Matías Segovia (2 assists), Willian Bigode (2 assists), Gonzalo Mastriani (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ponte Preta Analysis

With 10 points from 23 games and a place of 20, Ponte Preta still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 16:48 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Elvis (2 goals), Brandão (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, America Mineiro won 8 times, Ponte Preta won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:8 from America Mineiro's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (89.2%)
Predicted formations: America Mineiro 4-1-4-1 / Ponte Preta 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: America Mineiro wins 8, draws 4, Ponte Preta wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
Promotion
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