BRAZIL SERIE B
09.09.2026 23:30
Referee: K. Goncalves
America Mineiro
Match Timeline
Nautico Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
Willian · Assist: Paulo Victor·Ferreira de Jesus
America Mineiro
🟨
19'
Luan Sales
Nautico Recife
26'
Tobias Ostchega
America Mineiro
🔄
28'
Alberto Magno Santos de Melo Filho ↔ Ryan Santos
Nautico Recife
🔄
45'
Kauan Almeida da Costa ↔ Benjamín Borasi
Nautico Recife
🔄
45'
Luan Sales ↔ Reginaldo
Nautico Recife
🔄
45'
Derek Freitas Ribeiro ↔ Todinho
Nautico Recife
🔄
56'
Samuel ↔ Luiz Cláudio
Nautico Recife
🟨
59'
Muriel
Nautico Recife
🔄
64'
Otavio Goncalves ↔ Jorge Jiménez
America Mineiro
🟨
74'
Paulo Victor·Ferreira de Jesus
America Mineiro
🔄
80'
Julio César Leme Do Nascimento ↔ Matías Segovia
America Mineiro
🔄
80'
Guilherme Parede ↔ Marcelo Enrique Maçola Filho
America Mineiro
🔄
88'
Willian ↔ Rodrigo Pineiro
America Mineiro
🔄
88'
Barreto ↔ Felipe
America Mineiro
89'
Todinho · Assist: Vinicius
Nautico Recife

America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 94.3%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.97
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
94.3%
1.36
BTTS Yes
63.2%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.97
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.06
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
America Mineiro Win 48.6%
Draw 5.7%
Nautico Recife Win 45.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
America Mineiro0.87
Nautico Recife1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
America Mineiro America Mineiro
WWDLW
19 GF / 45 GA
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WLDWL
31 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
0.73
Average Goals Scored
1.19
1.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
13
BTTS Yes
11
15
Over 2.5
9
4.58
Shots on Goal
4.77

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

America Mineiro America Mineiro 26 matches
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 26 matches
America Mineiro Statistic Nautico Recife
3 Wins 10
5 Draws 7
18 Losses 9
19 Goals For 31
45 Goals Against 28
0.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
1.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
13 BTTS Yes 11
20 Over 1.5 15
15 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 8
10 Failed To Score 9
4.58 Shots On Goal 4.77
13.38 Total Shots 16.15
5.58 Corners 5.88
54.3% Ball Possession 58.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Nautico Recife's more proactive style and America Mineiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. America Mineiro have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nautico Recife. Nautico Recife carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 12 with 34 points while America Mineiro sit 19 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

America Mineiro Analysis

America Mineiro sit 19 with 14 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 18:42, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Gonzalo Mastriani (4 goals), Matías Segovia (2 goals), Paulo Victor (2 goals), with creative support from Matías Segovia (2 assists), Willian Bigode (2 assists), Gonzalo Mastriani (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife are currently 12 in the standings with 34 points from 25 matches. The record of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 30:28 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vinícius (4 goals), Kaua Almeida da Costa (3 goals), Dodô (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, America Mineiro won 4 times, Nautico Recife won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:11 from America Mineiro's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.44 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: America Mineiro 4-2-3-1 / Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: America Mineiro wins 4, draws 2, Nautico Recife wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
3 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
4 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W W L
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
11 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
12 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
13 28 11 6 11 28:34 -6 39
W L L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 28 8 6 14 29:36 -7 30
D L L L W
18 28 7 7 14 38:39 -1 28
W W L D L
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 28 2 4 22 16:62 -46 10
L L L L L
Promotion
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