ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
27.09.2026 18:30
Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Almirante Brown vs Acassuso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.8%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 76.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.8%
-
BTTS No
76.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Almirante Brown Win 83.8%
Draw 4.9%
Acassuso Win 11.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almirante Brown0.93
Acassuso0.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almirante Brown Almirante Brown
WWDLW
23 GF / 17 GA
Acassuso Acassuso
WLDWL
23 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
0.72
0.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
7
BTTS Yes
9
5
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almirante Brown Almirante Brown 30 matches
Acassuso Acassuso 32 matches
Almirante Brown Statistic Acassuso
12 Wins 7
10 Draws 8
8 Losses 17
23 Goals For 23
17 Goals Against 37
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 0.72
0.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
7 BTTS Yes 9
11 Over 1.5 18
5 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 3
18 Clean Sheets 10
13 Failed To Score 18
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Almirante Brown's more proactive style and Acassuso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Acassuso. Acassuso arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Acassuso having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Almirante Brown arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 46 points compared to Acassuso in 18 on 26, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Almirante Brown Analysis

Placed 5 with 46 points from 29 outings, Almirante Brown continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 23:16 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Acassuso Analysis

With 26 points from 30 games and a place of 18, Acassuso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 21:34, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Almirante Brown won 4 times, Acassuso won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:7 from Almirante Brown's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.18 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
H2H summary: Almirante Brown wins 4, draws 4, Acassuso wins 3

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 17 7 6 35:25 10 58
W D D D W
2 29 16 7 6 47:27 20 55
W W W D D
3 29 14 7 8 36:25 11 49
W W W L W
4 29 12 10 7 42:28 14 46
L W L W W
5 29 12 10 7 23:16 7 46
D D W W L
6 29 12 9 8 35:25 10 45
L L L W W
7 30 11 9 10 27:25 2 42
W W L D L
8 30 9 12 9 24:27 -3 39
L D L W D
9 29 8 13 8 22:17 5 37
D D D D L
10 29 9 8 12 26:34 -8 35
L L W D D
11 29 8 9 12 26:29 -3 33
D W D W W
12 29 7 12 10 22:26 -4 33
W D W L L
13 30 6 14 10 17:26 -9 32
D L W D L
14 30 6 14 10 27:37 -10 32
L D D D L
15 29 6 13 10 19:27 -8 31
D D D D W
16 30 6 13 11 24:34 -10 31
D D L L L
17 30 7 10 13 23:34 -11 31
L W D L W
18 30 6 8 16 21:34 -13 26
W L L D L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation