04.05.2026 18:30
UD Almeria Stadium
Referee: G. Etayo
Almeria
Match Timeline
Mirandes
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
Leo Baptistao · Assist: M. Luna
Almeria
3'
F. Medrano · Assist: S. El Jebari
Mirandes
15'
J. Gutierrez
Almeria
18'
S. El Jebari · Assist: H. Novoa Ramos
Mirandes
🟨
52'
Juan Gutiérrez
Mirandes
58'
F. Medrano
Almeria
🟨
62'
Léo Baptistão
Almeria
🔄
63'
Leo Baptistao ↔ A. Puigmal
Almeria
🟨
65'
Salim El Jebari
Mirandes
🔄
74'
A. Embarba ↔ J. Morcillo
Almeria
🔄
76'
S. El Jebari ↔ P. Perez
Mirandes
🔄
76'
H. Novoa Ramos ↔ T. Tamarit
Mirandes
🔄
82'
A. Houary ↔ J. Martinez Landa
Mirandes
🔄
87'
M. de la Fuente ↔ Thalys
Almeria
🔄
87'
S. Arribas ↔ A. Horta
Almeria
🟨
89'
Juan Palomares
Mirandes
🔄
90+2'
J. Hernandez ↔ M. Malsa
Mirandes
90'
J. Morcillo
Almeria

Almeria vs Mirandes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 73%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
73%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Almeria Win 73.8%
Draw 7.1%
Mirandes Win 19.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almeria1.83
Mirandes1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almeria Almeria
WWDLW
77 GF / 58 GA
Mirandes Mirandes
WLDWL
41 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
1.97
Average Goals Scored
1.05
1.49
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
28
BTTS Yes
25
28
Over 2.5
21
5.61
Shots on Goal
4.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almeria Almeria 39 matches
Mirandes Mirandes 39 matches
Almeria Statistic Mirandes
21 Wins 9
7 Draws 10
11 Losses 20
77 Goals For 41
58 Goals Against 63
1.97 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
1.49 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
28 BTTS Yes 25
34 Over 1.5 31
28 Over 2.5 21
16 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 13
5.61 Shots On Goal 4.05
15 Total Shots 11.95
4.74 Corners 4.21
51.4% Ball Possession 41.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Almeria's more proactive style and Mirandes's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mirandes. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Almeria arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 67 points compared to Mirandes in 19 on 36, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Almeria Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 67 points from 37 games, Almeria bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 20 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, with a 74:56 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on S. Arribas (24 goals), A. Embarba (14 goals), Leo Baptistao (8 goals), with creative support from A. Embarba (9 assists), S. Arribas (7 assists), A. Munoz (6 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 13 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Mirandes Analysis

Mirandes sit 19 with 36 points after 37 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 9 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 40:60 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on C. Fernandez (16 goals), G. Petit (7 goals), J. Hernandez (6 goals), with creative support from Fernando Medrano (3 assists), Marino Illescas (3 assists), S. El Jebari (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Almeria won 7 times, Mirandes won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:13 from Almeria's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.08 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.9%)
Predicted formations: Almeria 4-2-3-1 / Mirandes 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Almeria wins 7, draws 4, Mirandes wins 1

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
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