ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
27.09.2026 18:30
Estadio Tres de Febrero

Almagro vs Nueva Chicago Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.7%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
34.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Almagro Win 57.7%
Draw 29.1%
Nueva Chicago Win 13.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almagro0.91
Nueva Chicago0.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almagro Almagro
WWDLW
26 GF / 36 GA
Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago
WLDWL
21 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
0.87
Average Goals Scored
0.72
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
12
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almagro Almagro 30 matches
Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago 29 matches
Almagro Statistic Nueva Chicago
9 Wins 8
8 Draws 8
13 Losses 13
26 Goals For 21
36 Goals Against 28
0.87 Avg Goals Scored 0.72
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
12 BTTS Yes 8
19 Over 1.5 15
9 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 3
9 Clean Sheets 10
12 Failed To Score 16
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nueva Chicago having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nueva Chicago arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nueva Chicago.

Almagro Analysis

From their first 30 matches, Almagro have collected 35 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, while the 26:36 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nueva Chicago Analysis

Nueva Chicago sit 15 with 32 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 21:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 11 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Almagro won 7 times, Nueva Chicago won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:16 from Almagro's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (86.8%)
Predicted formations: Almagro - / Nueva Chicago 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Almagro wins 7, draws 2, Nueva Chicago wins 5

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 14 11 4 31:15 16 53
D D W L W
2 30 14 11 5 36:24 12 53
W D W W W
3 30 15 8 7 45:36 9 53
D W W D D
4 29 15 3 11 34:28 6 48
W W L L W
5 30 13 8 9 34:25 9 47
W W L L W
6 30 12 9 9 33:27 6 45
W D L W W
7 30 12 9 9 31:27 4 45
L D W W L
8 30 11 9 10 25:26 -1 42
W L L W D
9 30 11 8 11 37:31 6 41
D D D L W
10 30 11 7 12 29:30 -1 40
L W L W W
11 30 9 12 9 32:30 2 39
L W L D W
12 30 9 9 12 26:34 -8 36
W L W D L
13 30 9 8 13 28:27 1 35
L W L L L
14 30 9 8 13 26:36 -10 35
L D L W D
15 29 8 8 13 21:28 -7 32
L W L L L
16 29 5 15 9 23:30 -7 30
D D L W D
17 30 8 6 16 22:31 -9 30
W L L L L
18 30 5 8 17 23:51 -28 23
L L L D D
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation