ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
12.09.2026 18:30
Estadio Tres de Febrero
Almagro
Match Timeline
Deportivo Maipu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
M. Bonfigli · Assist: J. Vera
Deportivo Maipu
18'
F. De La Vega · Assist: J. Marchioni
Almagro
31'
F. De La Vega · Assist: E. Martinez
Almagro
39'
M. Bonfigli
Deportivo Maipu
🔄
46'
T. Dornell ↔ J. Bustos
Almagro
🔄
58'
J. Vera ↔ J. C. Arno
Deportivo Maipu
🔄
58'
L. Cabrera ↔ J. Giacone
Deportivo Maipu
🔄
58'
T. Silva ↔ D. Yavante Gaitan
Deportivo Maipu
🟨
74'
B. Negro
Almagro
🔄
74'
E. Martinez ↔ T. Canale
Almagro
🔄
74'
F. De La Vega ↔ C. Salto
Almagro
🟨
78'
N. Tolosa
Almagro
🔄
80'
M. Bonfigli ↔ M. Viguet
Deportivo Maipu
🔄
81'
N. Tolosa ↔ E. Silcan
Almagro
🔄
81'
T. Macies ↔ J. Fernandes
Almagro
🔄
90+1'
J. de la Reta ↔ N. Fernandez
Deportivo Maipu

Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 60.6%
Odds 1.53
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 2.25
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.1%
Odds 1.41
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
60.6%
1.53
BTTS Yes
58.2%
2.25
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.1%
1.41
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.33
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
4.00
Correct Score 1-1
-
6.00
Probability Distribution
Almagro Win 39.4%
Draw 20.2%
Deportivo Maipu Win 40.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almagro0.88
Deportivo Maipu1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almagro Almagro
WWDLW
23 GF / 31 GA
Deportivo Maipu Deportivo Maipu
WLDWL
35 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
10
BTTS Yes
12
7
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almagro Almagro 28 matches
Deportivo Maipu Deportivo Maipu 30 matches
Almagro Statistic Deportivo Maipu
9 Wins 12
7 Draws 6
12 Losses 12
23 Goals For 35
31 Goals Against 29
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
10 BTTS Yes 12
17 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 12
2 Over 3.5 7
9 Clean Sheets 10
12 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Deportivo Maipu's more proactive style and Almagro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Deportivo Maipu. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Deportivo Maipu having the stronger overall control.

Almagro Analysis

So far, Almagro have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 34 points from 27 matches. The record of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 22:29 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Maipu Analysis

Deportivo Maipu sit 8 with 38 points after 27 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, while the 34:28 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Almagro won 1 times, Deportivo Maipu won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:5 from Almagro's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.8%)
Predicted formations: Almagro - / Deportivo Maipu 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Almagro wins 1, draws 0, Deportivo Maipu wins 3

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 14 11 4 31:15 16 53
D D W L W
2 30 14 11 5 36:24 12 53
W D W W W
3 30 15 8 7 45:36 9 53
D W W D D
4 29 15 3 11 34:28 6 48
W W L L W
5 30 13 8 9 34:25 9 47
W W L L W
6 30 12 9 9 33:27 6 45
W D L W W
7 30 12 9 9 31:27 4 45
L D W W L
8 30 11 9 10 25:26 -1 42
W L L W D
9 30 11 8 11 37:31 6 41
D D D L W
10 30 11 7 12 29:30 -1 40
L W L W W
11 30 9 12 9 32:30 2 39
L W L D W
12 30 9 9 12 26:34 -8 36
W L W D L
13 30 9 8 13 28:27 1 35
L W L L L
14 30 9 8 13 26:36 -10 35
L D L W D
15 29 8 8 13 21:28 -7 32
L W L L L
16 29 5 15 9 23:30 -7 30
D D L W D
17 30 8 6 16 22:31 -9 30
W L L L L
18 30 5 8 17 23:51 -28 23
L L L D D
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation