10.05.2026 01:00
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Referee: A. Menendez
Alianza Lima
Match Timeline
Sporting Cristal
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
M. Antoni
Alianza Lima
🟨
37'
L. Iberico
Sporting Cristal
🟨
40'
R. Lutiger
Sporting Cristal
🔄
46'
M. Antoni ↔ C. Carbajal
Alianza Lima
🔄
59'
G. Gentile ↔ Paolo Guerrero
Alianza Lima
🔄
59'
L. Ramos ↔ F. Girotti
Alianza Lima
🔄
63'
F. Vizeu ↔ I. Avila
Sporting Cristal
🔄
63'
J. Gonzalez ↔ Gabriel
Sporting Cristal
🔄
68'
F. Gaibor ↔ J. Castillo
Alianza Lima
🟨
69'
G. Cazonatti
Sporting Cristal
72'
G. Cazonatti
Sporting Cristal
🟨
75'
G. Chavez
Alianza Lima
🔄
76'
J. Velez ↔ K. Quevedo
Alianza Lima
🔄
87'
L. Iberico ↔ C. Cabellos
Sporting Cristal
🔄
90+1'
Y. Yotun ↔ M. Tavara
Sporting Cristal
90'
E. Pavez · Assist: J. Castillo
Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Alianza Lima Win 90.2%
Draw 0%
Sporting Cristal Win 9.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Lima1.61
Sporting Cristal1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WWDLW
28 GF / 8 GA
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
WLDWL
33 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
6
BTTS Yes
14
6
Over 2.5
14
4.67
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 16 matches
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 22 matches
Alianza Lima Statistic Sporting Cristal
11 Wins 8
3 Draws 5
2 Losses 9
28 Goals For 33
8 Goals Against 31
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
6 BTTS Yes 14
9 Over 1.5 18
6 Over 2.5 14
2 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 3
4.67 Shots On Goal 4.67
14.2 Total Shots 14.71
4.2 Corners 5.48
52.8% Ball Possession 58.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Alianza Lima's more proactive style and Sporting Cristal's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Alianza Lima come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Lima expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Sporting Cristal in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sporting Cristal having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sporting Cristal. Alianza Lima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 32 points compared to Sporting Cristal in 13 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Alianza Lima come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 32 points after 13 matches. The return of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 24:6, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through E. Castillo (8 goals), Paolo Guerrero (4 goals), R. Garces (4 goals), with creative support from E. Castillo (4 assists), J. Velez (3 assists), A. Cantero (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Sporting Cristal Analysis

Sporting Cristal approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 15 points from 13 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 22:22, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Felipe Vizeu (5 goals), L. Iberico (4 goals), I. Avila (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Yotun (5 assists), I. Avila (3 assists), S. Gonzalez (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Lima won 2 times, Sporting Cristal won 4 times, while 9 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:16 from Alianza Lima's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Lima 4-1-3-2 / Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alianza Lima wins 2, draws 9, Sporting Cristal wins 4

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2