02.08.2026 01:30
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Referee: M. Espinoza
Alianza Lima
Match Timeline
Alianza Atletico
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
E. Castillo · Assist: J. Velez
Alianza Lima
28'
J. Ingratti
Alianza Atletico
🟨
32'
Paolo Guerrero
Alianza Lima
🟨
40'
G. A. Larios Saavedra
Alianza Atletico
🟨
45'
R. Garces
Alianza Lima
51'
W. Guzman
Alianza Lima
🟥
57'
W. Guzman
Alianza Atletico
🔄
66'
J. del Castillo ↔ A. Munoz
Alianza Atletico
🔄
70'
Paolo Guerrero ↔ A. Cantero
Alianza Lima
🔄
73'
G. A. Larios Saavedra ↔ J. Molina
Alianza Atletico
79'
J. Velez · Assist: A. Cantero
Alianza Lima
🟨
80'
A. Munoz
Alianza Atletico
🔄
83'
C. Penilla ↔ F. Flores
Alianza Atletico
🔄
83'
J. Ingratti ↔ J. Perez
Alianza Atletico
🔄
83'
G. Diaz ↔ J. Lujan
Alianza Atletico
🔄
84'
E. Castillo ↔ J. Archimbaud
Alianza Lima
🔄
90+1'
R. Garces ↔ N. Diaz
Alianza Lima
🔄
90+1'
F. Gaibor ↔ J. Castillo
Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.7%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Alianza Lima Win 64.7%
Draw 7.7%
Alianza Atletico Win 27.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Lima1.51
Alianza Atletico0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WWDLW
38 GF / 15 GA
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
WLDWL
24 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1.2
0.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
10
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
10
5.19
Shots on Goal
4.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 23 matches
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 20 matches
Alianza Lima Statistic Alianza Atletico
14 Wins 6
6 Draws 6
3 Losses 8
38 Goals For 24
15 Goals Against 26
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
0.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
10 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 14
9 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 6
5.19 Shots On Goal 4.89
14.38 Total Shots 13.47
3.9 Corners 3.11
52.4% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Alianza Lima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 43 points compared to Alianza Atletico in 8 on 24, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Alianza Atletico. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Lima expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Alianza Atletico in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Atletico having the stronger overall control.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 43 points from 18 games, Alianza Lima bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 13 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 32:9, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Eryc Castillo (9 goals), Jairo Vélez (2 goals), Fernando Gaibor (2 goals), with creative support from Eryc Castillo (3 assists), Marco Huamán (3 assists), Jairo Vélez (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Alianza Atletico Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Alianza Atletico have collected 24 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, while the 24:23 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Cristian Penilla (4 goals), Valentín Robaldo (2 goals), Jorge del Castillo (2 goals), with creative support from Cristian Penilla (2 assists), Valentín Robaldo (1 assists), Hernan Lupú (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Lima won 8 times, Alianza Atletico won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:13 from Alianza Lima's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Lima 4-1-3-2 / Alianza Atletico 4-3-3
H2H summary: Alianza Lima wins 8, draws 3, Alianza Atletico wins 4

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 25 10 7 8 37:31 6 37
W W W D W
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
12 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
13 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
14 25 8 5 12 22:27 -5 29
L W W W D
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2