Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
87%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
69.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
40.1%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
81.7%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Alaves
42 matches
Rayo Vallecano
55 matches
| Alaves | Statistic | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wins | 24 |
| 10 | Draws | 15 |
| 17 | Losses | 16 |
| 58 | Goals For | 77 |
| 57 | Goals Against | 60 |
| 1.38 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.4 |
| 1.36 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.09 |
| 24 | BTTS Yes | 25 |
| 30 | Over 1.5 | 40 |
| 21 | Over 2.5 | 25 |
| 11 | Over 3.5 | 13 |
| 9 | Clean Sheets | 19 |
| 10 | Failed To Score | 14 |
| 3.9 | Shots On Goal | 4.87 |
| 11.52 | Total Shots | 14.44 |
| 4.83 | Corners | 5.95 |
| 47.3% | Ball Possession | 53.5% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rayo Vallecano. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alaves expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Rayo Vallecano in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rayo Vallecano having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
With 43 points from 37 games and a place of 14, Alaves still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 10 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 43:54 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Martinez (13 goals), L. Boye (11 goals), C. Vicente (5 goals), with creative support from Abderrahman Rebbach (4 assists), C. Alena (4 assists), T. Martinez (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
From their first 37 matches, Rayo Vallecano have collected 47 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 11 wins, 14 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 39:43 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. de Frutos (10 goals), A. Garcia (4 goals), Alemao (4 goals), with creative support from A. Garcia (5 assists), Andrei Rațiu (4 assists), Unai López (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Alaves won 4 times, Rayo Vallecano won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:13 from Alaves's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 95:36 | 59 | 94 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 77:35 | 42 | 86 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 3 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72:46 | 26 | 72 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 62:44 | 18 | 69 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 59:48 | 11 | 60 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53:48 | 5 | 54 |
W
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 32:38 | -6 | 51 |
W
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 8 |
Rayo Vallecano
Away
|
38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 41:44 | -3 | 50 |
W
W
D
D
W
|
| 9 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46:55 | -9 | 49 |
W
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 59:61 | -2 | 46 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 43:55 | -12 | 46 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 43:58 | -15 | 45 |
L
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 46:60 | -14 | 43 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 14 |
Alaves
Home
|
38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 44:56 | -12 | 43 |
L
W
W
D
L
|
| 15 | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 49:57 | -8 | 43 |
D
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 16 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:61 | -14 | 42 |
L
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44:50 | -6 | 42 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:57 | -10 | 42 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 19 | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 39:55 | -16 | 41 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 20 | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 26:60 | -34 | 29 |
L
L
L
D
L
|