RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
03.05.2026 16:30
Akhmat-Arena
Referee: S. Cheban
Akhmat
Match Timeline
Nizhny Novgorod
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
34'
Georgiy Melkadze
Akhmat
🟨
44'
Lechii Sadulaev
Akhmat
🔄
46'
D. Lesovoy ↔ A. Sidorenko
Nizhny Novgorod
⚽
55'
L. Sadulaev
Akhmat
⚽
60'
E. Cacintura · Assist: M. Samorodov
Akhmat
🔄
64'
Y. Koledin ↔ A. Ivlev
Nizhny Novgorod
🔄
75'
M. Samorodov ↔ B. Mansilla
Akhmat
🔄
75'
G. Melkadze ↔ M. Konate
Akhmat
🟨
78'
Ismael Silva
Akhmat
🔄
85'
E. Cacintura ↔ M. Keliano
Akhmat
🔄
85'
↔ M. Urvantsev
Nizhny Novgorod

Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 91.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
91.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Akhmat Win 91.7%
Draw 5.9%
Nizhny Novgorod Win 2.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Akhmat1.34
Nizhny Novgorod1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Akhmat Akhmat
WWDLW
31 GF / 37 GA
Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod
WLDWL
23 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
0.85
1.37
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
15
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
15
3.48
Shots on Goal
3.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Akhmat Akhmat 27 matches
Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod 27 matches
Akhmat Statistic Nizhny Novgorod
8 Wins 6
8 Draws 4
11 Losses 17
31 Goals For 23
37 Goals Against 44
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 0.85
1.37 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
15 BTTS Yes 11
20 Over 1.5 21
12 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 13
3.48 Shots On Goal 3.78
11.93 Total Shots 10.81
4.3 Corners 4.37
45.3% Ball Possession 42.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nizhny Novgorod. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Akhmat expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nizhny Novgorod in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nizhny Novgorod having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Akhmat Analysis

Akhmat approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 32 points from 27 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 31:37 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Cacintura (7 goals), G. Melkadze (7 goals), M. Samorodov (5 goals), with creative support from M. Samorodov (4 assists), E. Cacintura (3 assists), M. Konate (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nizhny Novgorod Analysis

With 22 points from 27 games and a place of 15, Nizhny Novgorod still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 17 defeats with a 23:44 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Juan Manuel Boselli (8 goals), O. Olusegun (5 goals), A. Balboa (3 goals), with creative support from Juan Manuel Boselli (2 assists), Renaldo Cephas (2 assists), Egor Smelov (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Akhmat won 7 times, Nizhny Novgorod won 5 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:16 from Akhmat's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (97.6%)
Predicted formations: Akhmat 4-2-3-1 / Nizhny Novgorod 4-3-3
Missing players: Akhmat 3, Nizhny Novgorod 3
H2H summary: Akhmat wins 7, draws 0, Nizhny Novgorod wins 5

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation