SENEGAL LIGUE 1
03.05.2026 17:00

AJEL vs Stade de Mbour Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
68.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
87.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
AJEL Win 68.5%
Draw 3.3%
Stade de Mbour Win 28.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
AJEL0.82
Stade de Mbour0.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
AJEL AJEL
WWDLW
22 GF / 15 GA
Stade de Mbour Stade de Mbour
WLDWL
14 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.92
Average Goals Scored
0.58
0.63
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
6
BTTS Yes
7
2
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AJEL AJEL 24 matches
Stade de Mbour Stade de Mbour 24 matches
AJEL Statistic Stade de Mbour
12 Wins 3
8 Draws 16
4 Losses 5
22 Goals For 14
15 Goals Against 16
0.92 Avg Goals Scored 0.58
0.63 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
6 BTTS Yes 7
14 Over 1.5 11
2 Over 2.5 3
0 Over 3.5 2
14 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 14
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by AJEL's more proactive style and Stade de Mbour's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Stade de Mbour. AJEL arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 44 points compared to Stade de Mbour in 11 on 25, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Stade de Mbour having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

AJEL Analysis

AJEL come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 44 points from 24 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 22:15 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Stade de Mbour Analysis

Stade de Mbour sit 11 with 25 points after 24 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 16 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 14:16 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, AJEL won 1 times, Stade de Mbour won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from AJEL's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
H2H summary: AJEL wins 1, draws 0, Stade de Mbour wins 1

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 13 15 2 21:6 15 54
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2
AJEL Home
30 15 9 6 27:19 8 54
?
3 30 13 9 8 37:22 15 48
?
4 30 11 15 4 29:14 15 48
?
5 30 10 14 6 29:24 5 44
?
6 30 8 18 4 23:16 7 42
?
7 30 9 14 7 21:16 5 41
?
8 30 7 19 4 29:20 9 40
?
9 30 7 13 10 20:19 1 34
?
10 30 5 18 7 18:21 -3 33
?
11 30 5 18 7 18:24 -6 33
?
12 30 5 16 9 24:37 -13 31
?
13 30 7 8 15 29:34 -5 28
?
14 30 3 16 11 22:36 -14 25
?
15 30 4 13 13 18:39 -21 25
?
16 30 3 15 12 16:34 -18 24
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Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation