Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
54.2%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
20.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
22%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 0-1 |
-
|
- |
Ajax
Groningen
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Ajax
42 matches
Groningen
34 matches
| Ajax | Statistic | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wins | 14 |
| 14 | Draws | 6 |
| 12 | Losses | 14 |
| 70 | Goals For | 49 |
| 62 | Goals Against | 45 |
| 1.67 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.44 |
| 1.48 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
| 27 | BTTS Yes | 19 |
| 40 | Over 1.5 | 30 |
| 26 | Over 2.5 | 19 |
| 17 | Over 3.5 | 8 |
| 10 | Clean Sheets | 10 |
| 7 | Failed To Score | 7 |
| 5.4 | Shots On Goal | 5.79 |
| 13.86 | Total Shots | 15.88 |
| 4.83 | Corners | 6.24 |
| 55.6% | Ball Possession | 50.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Ajax appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Groningen. Groningen have the edge after taking the first leg 3-1, leaving Ajax needing to respond to a 2-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Ajax had more of the ball in the first leg (60% possession compared to 40%). Groningen carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 6 shots on goal compared to 5. Ajax also attempted more passes (555 to 375) and completed 455. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ajax expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Groningen in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Groningen having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Groningen.
Ajax enter this tie with a season profile built on 56 points from 34 matches, placing them 5 in their league. The return of 14 wins, 14 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 62:41 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by M. Godts (17 goals), W. Weghorst (8 goals), D. Klaassen (6 goals), with creative support from M. Godts (12 assists), O. Gloukh (6 assists), Rayane Bounida (5 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with V. Jaros, O. Zinchenko, K. Fitz-Jim unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Groningen enter this tie with a season profile built on 48 points from 34 matches, placing them 9 in their league. Their record of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats with goals at 49:45 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Thom van Bergen (9 goals), B. Willumsson (6 goals), Y. Taha (5 goals), with creative support from Y. Taha (9 assists), Thom van Bergen (4 assists), M. Rente (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with S. Resink, O. Zawada, D. van der Werff unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ajax won 11 times, Groningen won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 35:14 from Ajax's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.
Ajax
5
1
4
2
3
2
Lineups
Ajax
Vojvodina
Ajax
Olympiakos Piraeus
Ajax
VfL Bochum
Ajax
AEK Larnaca
Ajax
Panathinaikos
Ajax
Utrecht
Ajax
Heerenveen
Ajax
Utrecht
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
NAC Breda
Ajax
Twente
Ajax
Heracles
Ajax
Twente
Ajax
FC Volendam
Ajax
Feyenoord
Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax
Groningen
Ajax
PEC Zwolle
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
Groningen
AEK Athens FC
Groningen
Emmen
Groningen
Heracles
Groningen
Heracles
Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
Groningen
Excelsior
Groningen
Feyenoord
Groningen
GO Ahead Eagles
Groningen
Telstar
Groningen
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
PEC Zwolle
Groningen
Ajax
Groningen
FC Volendam
Groningen
Twente
Groningen
Utrecht
Groningen
PSV Eindhoven
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen
Fortuna Sittard
Groningen
Heerenveen
Groningen
NAC Breda
Ajax
Olympiakos Piraeus
Ajax
VfL Bochum
Ajax
AEK Larnaca
Ajax
Panathinaikos
Ajax
Utrecht
Ajax
Utrecht
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
Twente
Ajax
Twente
Ajax
FC Volendam
Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
Ajax
Olympiakos Piraeus
Ajax
FC Volendam
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Ajax
Seraing United
Ajax
Feyenoord
Ajax
Groningen
Ajax
Benfica
Groningen
Heracles
Groningen
Heracles
Groningen
Feyenoord
Groningen
Telstar
Groningen
PEC Zwolle
Groningen
FC Volendam
Groningen
Twente
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen
Heerenveen
Groningen
GO Ahead Eagles
Groningen
Excelsior
Groningen
Ajax
Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
Groningen
Fortuna Sittard
Groningen
NAC Breda
Groningen
Utrecht
Groningen
PSV Eindhoven
Groningen
AZ Alkmaar
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 101:45 | 56 | 84 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70:44 | 26 | 65 |
W
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 77:53 | 24 | 59 |
W
L
D
D
D
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 59:40 | 19 | 58 |
L
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 5 |
Ajax
Home
|
34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 62:41 | 21 | 56 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
| 6 | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 55:42 | 13 | 53 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 58:51 | 7 | 52 |
D
D
D
D
W
|
|
| 8 | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57:53 | 4 | 51 |
D
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 9 |
Groningen
Away
|
34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 49:45 | 4 | 48 |
W
W
L
L
D
|
| 10 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 40:62 | -22 | 43 |
L
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 49:63 | -14 | 39 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 12 | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 54:53 | 1 | 38 |
L
L
D
D
D
|
|
| 13 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 43:56 | -13 | 38 |
W
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 14 | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 49:55 | -6 | 37 |
W
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 44:71 | -27 | 37 |
L
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 35:55 | -20 | 32 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 17 | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 35:58 | -23 | 29 |
D
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 35:85 | -50 | 19 |
L
L
L
L
L
|