NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE
21.05.2026 16:45
Kras Stadion
Referee: M. Nagtegaal
Ajax
Match Timeline
Groningen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
24'
D. Klaassen · Assist: M. Godts
Ajax
🔄
32'
T. van Bergen ↔ B. Willumsson
Groningen
🟨
40'
Marvin Peersman
Groningen
57'
J. Mokio
Ajax
🟨
61'
Dies Janse
Groningen
🔄
62'
S. Steur ↔ Y. Regeer
Ajax
🟨
64'
Mika Godts
Ajax
🔄
67'
D. van der Werff ↔ M. Seuntjens
Groningen
🔄
67'
M. Peersman ↔ W. Prins
Groningen
🔄
67'
T. Hernes ↔ R. Metu
Groningen
VAR
70'
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
Groningen
🔄
71'
W. Weghorst ↔ K. Dolberg
Ajax
🔄
71'
S. Berghuis ↔ M. Carrizo
Ajax
🔄
77'
T. Land ↔ R. Mendes
Groningen
🔄
84'
D. Klaassen ↔ T. Tomiyasu
Ajax
🟨
90+2'
Mats Seuntjens
Groningen
🟨
90+1'
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
Groningen

Ajax vs Groningen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 20.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 22%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
20.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
22%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ajax Win 38.2%
Draw 7.6%
Groningen Win 54.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ajax1.53
Groningen1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ajax Ajax
WWDLW
70 GF / 62 GA
Groningen Groningen
WLDWL
49 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
27
BTTS Yes
19
26
Over 2.5
19
5.4
Shots on Goal
5.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ajax Ajax 42 matches
Groningen Groningen 34 matches
Ajax Statistic Groningen
16 Wins 14
14 Draws 6
12 Losses 14
70 Goals For 49
62 Goals Against 45
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
27 BTTS Yes 19
40 Over 1.5 30
26 Over 2.5 19
17 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 7
5.4 Shots On Goal 5.79
13.86 Total Shots 15.88
4.83 Corners 6.24
55.6% Ball Possession 50.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Ajax appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Groningen. Groningen have the edge after taking the first leg 3-1, leaving Ajax needing to respond to a 2-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Ajax had more of the ball in the first leg (60% possession compared to 40%). Groningen carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 6 shots on goal compared to 5. Ajax also attempted more passes (555 to 375) and completed 455. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ajax expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Groningen in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Groningen having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Groningen.

Ajax Analysis

Ajax enter this tie with a season profile built on 56 points from 34 matches, placing them 5 in their league. The return of 14 wins, 14 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 62:41 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by M. Godts (17 goals), W. Weghorst (8 goals), D. Klaassen (6 goals), with creative support from M. Godts (12 assists), O. Gloukh (6 assists), Rayane Bounida (5 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with V. Jaros, O. Zinchenko, K. Fitz-Jim unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Groningen Analysis

Groningen enter this tie with a season profile built on 48 points from 34 matches, placing them 9 in their league. Their record of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats with goals at 49:45 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Thom van Bergen (9 goals), B. Willumsson (6 goals), Y. Taha (5 goals), with creative support from Y. Taha (9 assists), Thom van Bergen (4 assists), M. Rente (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with S. Resink, O. Zawada, D. van der Werff unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ajax won 11 times, Groningen won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 35:14 from Ajax's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.4%)
Predicted formations: Ajax 4-3-3 / Groningen 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Ajax 8, Groningen 5
H2H summary: Ajax wins 11, draws 1, Groningen wins 3

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5
Ajax Home
34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie