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22.10.2026 19:00
Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax vs Atalanta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 67.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
67.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Ajax Win 46.9%
Draw 21%
Atalanta Win 32.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ajax1.9
Atalanta1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ajax Ajax
WWDLW
60 GF / 31 GA
Atalanta Atalanta
WLDWL
20 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
2.5
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1
18
BTTS Yes
7
18
Over 2.5
8
8.4
Shots on Goal
4.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ajax Ajax 24 matches
Atalanta Atalanta 13 matches
Ajax Statistic Atalanta
14 Wins 8
6 Draws 1
4 Losses 4
60 Goals For 20
31 Goals Against 13
2.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1
18 BTTS Yes 7
21 Over 1.5 9
18 Over 2.5 8
16 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 2
8.4 Shots On Goal 4.89
23.2 Total Shots 13.78
8 Corners 4.11
64.5% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Ajax won 0 times, Atalanta won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Ajax's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79%)
Predicted formations: Ajax 4-3-3 / Atalanta 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ajax wins 0, draws 1, Atalanta wins 1

Standings

UEFA Conference League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 1 1 0 0 4:0 4 3
W
2 1 1 0 0 3:0 3 3
W
3 1 1 0 0 4:2 2 3
W
4 1 1 0 0 3:1 2 3
W
5 1 1 0 0 2:0 2 3
W
6 1 1 0 0 2:0 2 3
W
7 1 1 0 0 3:2 1 3
W
8 1 1 0 0 3:2 1 3
W
9 1 1 0 0 2:1 1 3
W
10 1 1 0 0 2:1 1 3
W
11 1 1 0 0 2:1 1 3
W
12 1 1 0 0 2:1 1 3
W
13 1 1 0 0 1:0 1 3
W
14 1 1 0 0 1:0 1 3
W
15 1 0 1 0 1:1 0 1
D
16 1 0 1 0 1:1 0 1
D
17 1 0 1 0 1:1 0 1
D
18 1 0 1 0 1:1 0 1
D
19 1 0 1 0 1:1 0 1
D
20 1 0 1 0 1:1 0 1
D
21 1 0 1 0 1:1 0 1
D
22 1 0 1 0 1:1 0 1
D
23 1 0 0 1 2:3 -1 0
L
24 1 0 0 1 2:3 -1 0
L
25
Ajax Home
1 0 0 1 1:2 -1 0
L
26 1 0 0 1 1:2 -1 0
L
27 1 0 0 1 1:2 -1 0
L
28 1 0 0 1 1:2 -1 0
L
29 1 0 0 1 0:1 -1 0
L
30 1 0 0 1 0:1 -1 0
L
31 1 0 0 1 2:4 -2 0
L
32 1 0 0 1 1:3 -2 0
L
33 1 0 0 1 0:2 -2 0
L
34 1 0 0 1 0:2 -2 0
L
35 1 0 0 1 0:3 -3 0
L
36 1 0 0 1 0:4 -4 0
L
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)