BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Municipal Zinho de Oliveira
Águia de Marabá
Match Timeline
Tocantinópolis
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
A. Silva
Águia de Marabá
27'
J. Hitalo
Tocantinópolis
59'
A. Silva
Águia de Marabá
🟥
65'
Tocantinópolis
Tocantinópolis
69'
Diogo Carlos
Águia de Marabá

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Águia de Marabá Win 81.8%
Draw 0%
Tocantinópolis Win 18.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Águia de Marabá1.98
Tocantinópolis1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Águia de Marabá Águia de Marabá
WWDLW
17 GF / 8 GA
Tocantinópolis Tocantinópolis
WLDWL
10 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
2.13
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
6
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Águia de Marabá Águia de Marabá 8 matches
Tocantinópolis Tocantinópolis 8 matches
Águia de Marabá Statistic Tocantinópolis
4 Wins 2
3 Draws 3
1 Losses 3
17 Goals For 10
8 Goals Against 14
2.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
6 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 1
0 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Águia de Marabá's more proactive style and Tocantinópolis's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tocantinópolis. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tocantinópolis having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Águia de Marabá Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 12 points from 7 games, Águia de Marabá bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 14:8, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Felipe Para (4 goals), A. Silva (3 goals), Dede (2 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Tocantinópolis Analysis

Tocantinópolis arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 9 points after 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 9:10 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Hitalo (2 goals), R. Vieira (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Águia de Marabá won 3 times, Tocantinópolis won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:6 from Águia de Marabá's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Águia de Marabá wins 3, draws 2, Tocantinópolis wins 1
Last matches: Águia de Marabá
12.07.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
ABC
0
3
L
04.07.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
ABC
2
1
W
27.06.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Parnahyba
2
0
W
21.06.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Parnahyba
1
2
L
06.06.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
0
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Imperatriz
3
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Oratório
5
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Oratório
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Imperatriz
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
1
1
D
27.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
GAS
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Independência
4
1
W
13.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Manaus FC
3
3
D
05.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Manauara
0
1
L
29.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
0
2
L
14.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
1
2
L
07.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Humaitá
6
0
W
Last matches: Tocantinópolis
06.06.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Oratório
7
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Trem
1
4
L
16.05.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Imperatriz
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Tuna Luso
3
2
W
02.05.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Tuna Luso
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Imperatriz
1
1
D
22.04.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Oratório
0
3
L
19.04.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Trem
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Águia de Marabá
2
2
D
26.07.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Maracanã
0
1
L
19.07.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Altos
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Sampaio Correa
0
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Maranhão
1
1
D
28.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Imperatriz
0
4
L
13.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Iguatu
1
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Parnahyba
0
0
D
01.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Parnahyba
0
1
L
24.05.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Iguatu
1
1
D
21.05.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Imperatriz
1
2
L
10.05.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Maranhão
3
2
W
H2H: Águia de Marabá vs Tocantinópolis
30.05.26
H2H
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
3
1
W
11.04.26
H2H
Tocantinópolis
Águia de Marabá
2
2
D
12.06.24
H2H
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
0
0
D
09.06.24
H2H
Tocantinópolis
Águia de Marabá
3
0
L
17.07.16
H2H
Tocantinópolis
Águia de Marabá
0
2
W
12.06.16
H2H
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
1
0
W
Last matches: Águia de Marabá
04.07.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
ABC
2
1
W
27.06.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Parnahyba
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Oratório
5
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Imperatriz
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Independência
4
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Manauara
0
1
L
07.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Humaitá
6
0
W
24.05.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
0
2
L
17.05.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
0
0
D
03.05.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Manaus FC
1
1
D
20.04.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
GAS
1
0
W
H2H at home: Águia de Marabá
30.05.26
H2H
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
3
1
W
12.06.24
H2H
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
0
0
D
12.06.16
H2H
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
1
0
W
Last matches: Tocantinópolis
23.05.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Trem
1
4
L
10.05.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Tuna Luso
3
2
W
25.04.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Imperatriz
1
1
D
22.04.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Oratório
0
3
L
26.07.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Maracanã
0
1
L
12.07.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Sampaio Correa
0
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Imperatriz
0
4
L
13.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Iguatu
1
0
W
01.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Parnahyba
0
1
L
10.05.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Maranhão
3
2
W
26.04.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Altos
1
1
D
H2H away: Tocantinópolis
30.05.26
H2H
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
3
1
L
12.06.24
H2H
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
0
0
D
12.06.16
H2H
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
1
0
L

Standings

Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)