PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Union Tarma
Referee: J. Alarcon
ADT
Match Timeline
Atletico Grau
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
J. Guivin Tanta
ADT
🔄
25'
A. Rodriguez ↔ L. E. Benites Vargas
ADT
🟥
45+4'
Lucas Acevedo
Atletico Grau
VAR
45+4'
Lucas Acevedo
Atletico Grau
🔄
46'
N. Delgadillo ↔ I. Camargo
Atletico Grau
🔄
58'
A. Hidalgo ↔ S. Garcia
ADT
🔄
63'
R. Guarderas ↔ F. Oncoy
Atletico Grau
🔄
63'
E. Rodas ↔ G. E. Alfaro Martinez
Atletico Grau
🔄
75'
C. Neira ↔ E. Franco
Atletico Grau
🔄
75'
A. de la Cruz ↔ Y. Ruidiaz
Atletico Grau
🔄
76'
J. Bauman ↔ H. Rengifo
ADT
🔄
76'
V. Cedron ↔ J. Navarro
ADT
🔄
76'
J. Rojas ↔ A. Mazzo
ADT

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 22.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
22.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
ADT Win 66.6%
Draw 0%
Atletico Grau Win 33.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
ADT1.21
Atletico Grau0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
ADT ADT
WWDLW
16 GF / 17 GA
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
WLDWL
9 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
0.75
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
6
BTTS Yes
4
6
Over 2.5
4
5.17
Shots on Goal
4.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

ADT ADT 13 matches
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 12 matches
ADT Statistic Atletico Grau
3 Wins 2
4 Draws 4
6 Losses 6
16 Goals For 9
17 Goals Against 14
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
6 BTTS Yes 4
8 Over 1.5 6
6 Over 2.5 4
5 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 7
5.17 Shots On Goal 4.08
13.08 Total Shots 11.58
4.42 Corners 4.75
56.3% Ball Possession 47.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Grau. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with ADT expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Grau in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Grau having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

ADT Analysis

So far, ADT have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 13 points from 12 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 15:15 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Jonathan Bauman (3 goals), Luis Benites (3 goals), J. Guivin Tanta (2 goals), with creative support from Carlos Cabello (4 assists), Jonathan Bauman (1 assists), Luis Benites (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Grau Analysis

Atletico Grau approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 10 points from 12 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 9:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Isaac Camargo (2 goals), R. Ruidiaz (2 goals), Emiliano Franco (1 goals), with creative support from C. Neira (2 assists), Elsar Rodas (1 assists), Rafael Guarderas (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, ADT won 3 times, Atletico Grau won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:15 from ADT's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: ADT 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Grau 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: ADT wins 3, draws 3, Atletico Grau wins 3
Stats
ADT ADT
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
2
1 Corner Kicks 6
8 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 2
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Goal 3
7 Shots off Goal 7
3 Blocked Shots 2
11 Shots insidebox 6
8 Shots outsidebox 6
3 Goalkeeper Saves 8
427 Total passes 332
360 Passes accurate 269
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

ADT
Formation
Atletico Grau
C. Solis
C. Solis
J. Alvino
J. Alvino
J. Narvaez
J. Narvaez
J. Soto
J. Soto
A. Hidalgo
A. Hidalgo
L. Perez
L. Perez
J. Guivin Tanta
J. Guivin Tanta
A. Rodriguez
A. Rodriguez
V. Cedron
V. Cedron
J. Rojas
J. Rojas
J. Bauman
J. Bauman
P. Alvarez
P. Alvarez
D. Rodriguez
D. Rodriguez
R. Tapia
R. Tapia
L. Acevedo
L. Acevedo
J. Ataupillco
J. Ataupillco
E. Rodas
E. Rodas
A. de la Cruz
A. de la Cruz
C. Neira
C. Neira
R. Guarderas
R. Guarderas
N. Delgadillo
N. Delgadillo
R. Ruidiaz
R. Ruidiaz
ADT 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
33
C. Solis
G
15
J. Alvino
23
J. Narvaez
D
28
J. Soto
D
27
A. Hidalgo
↓ 58'
D
16
L. Perez
M
8
J. Guivin Tanta
⚽ 1'
M
22
A. Rodriguez
↓ 25'
M
10
V. Cedron
↓ 76'
M
7
J. Rojas
↓ 76'
M
32
J. Bauman
↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
30
J. Valencia
G
9
H. Rengifo
↑ 76'
F
5
J. Vega
M
31
J. Navarro
↑ 76'
D
25
S. Garcia
↑ 58'
37
N. Rengifo
F
21
L. E. Benites Vargas
↑ 25'
M
4
R. Biojo
D
18
A. Mazzo
↑ 76'
F
Atletico Grau 5-3-2
Starting XI
1
P. Alvarez
G
4
D. Rodriguez
D
27
R. Tapia
D
2
L. Acevedo
🟥 45+4'
D
16
J. Ataupillco
D
6
E. Rodas
↓ 63'
D
66
A. de la Cruz
↓ 75'
M
22
C. Neira
↓ 75'
M
5
R. Guarderas
↓ 63'
M
11
N. Delgadillo
↓ 46'
F
9
R. Ruidiaz
F
Substitutes
33
A. Calderon
G
29
E. Franco
↑ 75'
M
13
F. Oncoy
↑ 63'
M
25
G. E. Alfaro Martinez
↑ 63'
D
32
S. Torres
19
I. Camargo
↑ 46'
F
24
Y. Ruidiaz
↑ 75'
F
20
A. Vasquez
M
21
E. Correa
M
Last matches: ADT
30.05.26
Pri
ADT
Cusco
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
ADT
Sporting Cristal
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
ADT
Comerciantes Unidos
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
ADT
UCV Moquegua
2
2
D
27.04.26
Pri
ADT
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
4
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
ADT
FC Cajamarca
2
2
D
14.04.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
ADT
Cienciano
2
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
ADT
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Huancayo
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
ADT
Juan Pablo II College
2
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Atletico
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
ADT
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Boys
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
ADT
Universitario
0
2
L
18.01.26
Fri
ADT
FC Cajamarca
1
2
L
Last matches: Atletico Grau
29.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
UCV Moquegua
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Cusco
0
1
L
16.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Universitario
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Cienciano
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sporting Cristal
4
1
W
17.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Alianza Atletico
2
2
D
22.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Comerciantes Unidos
1
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Boys
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Huancayo
0
0
D
30.01.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
UTC Cajamarca
0
2
L
H2H: ADT vs Atletico Grau
02.05.26
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
31.08.25
H2H
Atletico Grau
ADT
2
0
L
15.02.25
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
4
3
W
04.08.24
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
2
L
25.02.24
H2H
Atletico Grau
ADT
2
2
D
23.07.23
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
19.02.23
H2H
Atletico Grau
ADT
1
1
D
04.09.22
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
1
D
16.04.22
H2H
Atletico Grau
ADT
4
1
L
Last matches: ADT
30.05.26
Pri
ADT
Cusco
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
ADT
Comerciantes Unidos
2
0
W
27.04.26
Pri
ADT
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
4
0
W
14.04.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
20.03.26
Pri
ADT
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
08.03.26
Pri
ADT
Juan Pablo II College
2
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
ADT
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
07.02.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Boys
1
0
W
H2H at home: ADT
02.05.26
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
15.02.25
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
4
3
W
04.08.24
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
2
L
23.07.23
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
04.09.22
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
1
D
Last matches: Atletico Grau
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Cusco
0
1
L
16.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Universitario
1
0
W
17.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Alianza Atletico
2
2
D
15.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Comerciantes Unidos
1
3
L
14.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Boys
0
1
L
30.01.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
UTC Cajamarca
0
2
L
H2H away: Atletico Grau
02.05.26
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
L
15.02.25
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
4
3
L
04.08.24
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
2
W
23.07.23
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
L
04.09.22
H2H
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
1
D

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
?
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
?
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
?
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
?
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
?
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
?
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
?
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
?
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
?
10
ADT Home
17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
?
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
?
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
?
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
?
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
?
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
?
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
?
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
?
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
?
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)