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18.10.2026 12:00
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Referee: Jose Guzman
AD Ceuta FC
Match Timeline
Oviedo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
22'
Marino Illesca
AD Ceuta FC
⚽
23'
Samuel Rodríguez de la Riva · Assist: David Jimenez
Oviedo
🟨
25'
David Jimenez
Oviedo
🟨
43'
Jordi Escobar
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
45'
Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre ↔ Carlos Redruello Nimo
AD Ceuta FC
VAR
53'
Kialy Abdoul Kone
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
56'
José Juan Romero Gil
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
59'
Víctor García Mingo ↔ José Luis Morales
Oviedo
🔄
59'
David Jimenez ↔ Nacho Vidal
Oviedo
🔄
59'
Alberto Reina ↔ Pablo Saenz
Oviedo
⚽
61'
Carlos Dominguez
Oviedo
🔄
72'
Edgar Sevikyan ↔ Omar Sadik
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
72'
Kialy Abdoul Kone ↔ Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
74'
Mikel Goti Lopez ↔ Jacobo González
Oviedo
🔄
81'
José Matos ↔ Abraham Bueno Espinosa
AD Ceuta FC
⚽
83'
Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
84'
Enzo Pérez Miranda ↔ Daniel Villahermosa
Oviedo
🟨
90'
Kuki Zalazar
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
90+6'
Aritz Aldasoro
Oviedo
🟨
90+7'
Carlos Dominguez
Oviedo

AD Ceuta FC vs Oviedo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.3%
Odds 2.42
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.97
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.3%
2.42 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.97 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.47 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
AD Ceuta FC Win 24.4%
Draw 18.3%
Oviedo Win 57.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
AD Ceuta FC1.02
Oviedo1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC
WWDLW
14 GF / 25 GA
Oviedo Oviedo
WLDWL
19 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.92
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
9
BTTS Yes
5
8
Over 2.5
7
3.67
Shots on Goal
4.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC 13 matches
Oviedo Oviedo 14 matches
AD Ceuta FC Statistic Oviedo
3 Wins 6
2 Draws 4
8 Losses 4
14 Goals For 19
25 Goals Against 13
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.92 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
9 BTTS Yes 5
12 Over 1.5 8
8 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 5
0 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 5
3.67 Shots On Goal 4.44
14 Total Shots 14.78
5.22 Corners 5.89
49.4% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Oviedo. Oviedo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 10 with 11 points while AD Ceuta FC sit 21 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AD Ceuta FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Oviedo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Oviedo having the stronger overall control.

AD Ceuta FC Analysis

AD Ceuta FC sit 21 with 5 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats with a 8:20 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jordi Escobar (4 goals), Carlos Hernández (4 goals), with creative support from K. Koné (3 assists), Jordi Escobar (1 assists), Kuki (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Oviedo Analysis

Oviedo are currently 10 in the standings with 11 points from 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 8:8 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Alberto Reina (2 goals), Enzo Perez (1 goals), Dani Calvo (1 goals), with creative support from Enzo Perez (1 assists), Mikel Goti (1 assists), David Jiménez (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.7%)
Predicted formations: AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3 / Oviedo 4-2-3-1

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 0 2 20:7 13 24
W W W W W
2 10 7 2 1 18:4 14 23
W L D W W
3 10 7 1 2 20:11 9 22
D L W W W
4 10 6 1 3 11:9 2 19
W W W L W
5 10 5 3 2 17:9 8 18
W D D W W
6 10 5 3 2 12:5 7 18
D W D L W
7 10 5 2 3 16:13 3 17
W W W L L
8 10 5 2 3 13:10 3 17
W L L W W
9 10 5 2 3 13:10 3 17
W W L W L
10 10 4 4 2 10:8 2 16
L W D D W
11 10 4 2 4 13:13 0 14
W W W L L
12 10 3 3 4 15:14 1 12
L W D W D
13 9 3 3 3 11:13 -2 12
D L D L W
14 10 4 0 6 15:20 -5 12
W L W L W
15 9 3 2 4 14:15 -1 11
W L D L L
16 10 3 2 5 13:19 -6 11
L L D L L
17 10 3 2 5 6:15 -9 11
L L L L W
18 10 3 1 6 13:17 -4 10
L W D W L
19 10 2 2 6 14:21 -7 8
L L L L L
20 10 1 4 5 11:13 -2 7
L L W D L
21 10 1 2 7 9:22 -13 5
L L D W D
22 10 0 1 9 6:22 -16 1
L L L L L
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation