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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
19.09.2026 14:00
The Crown Ground
Accrington ST
Match Timeline
Newport County
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Donald Love
Accrington ST
🔄
53'
C. Caton ↔ C. Stockton
Accrington ST
🔄
66'
C. O'Brien ↔ O. Smith
Accrington ST
🔄
66'
K. Evans ↔ M. Adu Poku
Newport County
🟨
78'
Cameron Norman
Newport County
🔄
81'
D. Tutonda ↔ J. Catesby
Accrington ST
🟨
83'
Harrison Biggins
Newport County
🔄
86'
C. Doidge ↔ S. Gwengwe
Newport County
🔄
86'
H. Biggins ↔ T. Nyakuhwa
Newport County
🟨
90+2'
Stefan Mols
Accrington ST

Accrington ST vs Newport County Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Accrington ST Win 55.8%
Draw 16.5%
Newport County Win 27.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Accrington ST1.5
Newport County1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Accrington ST Accrington ST
WWDLW
15 GF / 13 GA
Newport County Newport County
WLDWL
24 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.71
5
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
11
5
Shots on Goal
3.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Accrington ST Accrington ST 11 matches
Newport County Newport County 14 matches
Accrington ST Statistic Newport County
4 Wins 4
4 Draws 4
3 Losses 6
15 Goals For 24
13 Goals Against 24
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71
5 BTTS Yes 8
7 Over 1.5 12
6 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 3
5 Shots On Goal 3.17
14.33 Total Shots 9.17
3.5 Corners 3.83
45.5% Ball Possession 38.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Newport County. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Accrington ST expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Newport County in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Newport County having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Newport County arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Accrington ST Analysis

Accrington ST sit 19 with 5 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, together with goals at 9:11, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through C. Caton (2 goals), J. Woods (1 goals), D. Matthews (1 goals), with creative support from J. Woods (1 assists), T. Walton (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Newport County Analysis

Newport County approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 4 points from 5 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 9:10, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through S. Gwengwe (3 goals), H. Biggins (1 goals), Cole Jarvis (1 goals), with creative support from Christian Doidge (2 assists), H. Biggins (1 assists), Alfie Merritt (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Accrington ST won 5 times, Newport County won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:21 from Accrington ST's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.5%)
Predicted formations: Accrington ST 3-4-1-2 / Newport County 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Accrington ST wins 5, draws 4, Newport County wins 6

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 1 3 17:11 6 22
W W W W W
2 9 6 3 0 22:12 10 21
W W W W D
3 11 5 6 0 15:9 6 21
W W W D D
4 10 4 4 2 18:12 6 16
D D W L W
5 10 3 7 0 13:7 6 16
D D D W D
6 11 4 4 3 16:13 3 16
L W D L W
7 11 4 3 4 17:15 2 15
L D W L W
8 11 4 3 4 17:20 -3 15
L L L W D
9 11 5 0 6 15:18 -3 15
L L L W L
10 11 3 5 3 16:15 1 14
W D W D D
11 11 3 5 3 14:13 1 14
D W D W D
12 11 3 5 3 12:11 1 14
W D L L L
13 11 4 2 5 13:15 -2 14
L D W W W
14 11 4 2 5 10:15 -5 14
W L W D D
15 11 3 4 4 13:13 0 13
L L L L W
16 11 3 4 4 6:6 0 13
D W W L D
17 11 2 6 3 14:15 -1 12
L D L D D
18 11 3 3 5 10:15 -5 12
D L L D L
19 10 3 2 5 13:14 -1 11
W D L L L
20 10 2 5 3 10:13 -3 11
D L D D D
21 9 3 2 4 5:9 -4 11
W W L W L
22 9 2 4 3 6:7 -1 10
W D L L W
23 11 2 4 5 12:18 -6 10
L L L D W
24 9 1 2 6 9:17 -8 5
L D L L L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League