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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
17.10.2026 14:00
The Crown Ground

Accrington ST vs Gillingham Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 44.2%
Odds 2.90
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.00
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
44.2%
2.90 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.00 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.8%
1.80 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Accrington ST Win 41.8%
Draw 14%
Gillingham Win 44.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Accrington ST1.06
Gillingham1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Accrington ST Accrington ST
WWDLW
18 GF / 14 GA
Gillingham Gillingham
WLDWL
21 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
6
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
7
4.5
Shots on Goal
3.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Accrington ST Accrington ST 15 matches
Gillingham Gillingham 14 matches
Accrington ST Statistic Gillingham
5 Wins 7
7 Draws 4
3 Losses 3
18 Goals For 21
14 Goals Against 12
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
6 BTTS Yes 5
9 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 2
8 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 5
4.5 Shots On Goal 3.6
14 Total Shots 10.1
4.9 Corners 3.4
46.7% Ball Possession 46%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Gillingham's more proactive style and Accrington ST's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gillingham. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Accrington ST expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Gillingham in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gillingham having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Accrington ST Analysis

Accrington ST approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 10 points from 9 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with a 13:14 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on C. Caton (3 goals), J. Woods (2 goals), C. Warren (2 goals), with creative support from J. Woods (1 assists), Stefan Mols (1 assists), C. O'Brien (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gillingham Analysis

From their first 9 matches, Gillingham have collected 13 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 11:9 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Brophy (3 goals), S. Kendall (2 goals), Ronan Hale (1 goals), with creative support from N. Freeman (3 assists), Ronan Hale (1 assists), A. Smith (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Accrington ST won 2 times, Gillingham won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:15 from Accrington ST's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.64 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86%)
Predicted formations: Accrington ST 3-1-4-2 / Gillingham 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Accrington ST wins 2, draws 4, Gillingham wins 8

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 15:10 5 19
W W W W D
2 8 5 3 0 20:11 9 18
W W W D D
3 10 4 6 0 12:7 5 18
W W D D D
4 10 4 4 2 15:10 5 16
W D L W W
5 9 4 3 2 17:11 6 15
D W L W D
6 9 3 6 0 12:6 6 15
D D W D D
7 10 4 3 3 17:14 3 15
D W L W W
8 10 4 3 3 16:16 0 15
L L W D W
9 10 5 0 5 15:17 -2 15
L L W L L
10 10 4 2 4 11:12 -1 14
D W W W D
11 10 3 4 3 13:11 2 13
L L L W W
12 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
W D W D D
13 10 2 6 2 13:13 0 12
D L D D L
14 10 3 3 4 6:6 0 12
W W L D L
15 10 2 5 3 13:14 -1 11
D W D D L
16 10 2 5 3 10:11 -1 11
D L L L D
17 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L L D L L
18 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
L W D D W
19 9 2 4 3 10:13 -3 10
L D D D L
20 10 2 4 4 12:16 -4 10
L L D W D
21 9 2 2 5 9:13 -4 8
D L L L L
22 8 2 2 4 4:9 -5 8
W L W L L
23 8 1 4 3 4:7 -3 7
D L L W D
24 8 1 2 5 8:15 -7 5
D L L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League