FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Raatin stadion
Referee: Juuso Vuorinen, Finland
AC Oulu
Match Timeline
Mariehamn
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Sebastian Dahlström
Mariehamn
🟨
17'
Emmanuel Patut
Mariehamn
🔄
46'
Lamine Ghezali ↔ Niklas Jokelainen
AC Oulu
🔄
58'
Adam Stroud ↔ Marlo Hyvonen
Mariehamn
🔄
58'
Adam Larsson ↔ Leo Andersson
Mariehamn
🔄
58'
Anttoni Huttunen ↔ Nikolaos Dosis
Mariehamn
65'
Marlo Hyvonen · Assist: Luke Pearce
Mariehamn
🔄
67'
Iiro Mendolin ↔ Juuso Makelainen
AC Oulu
🟨
73'
Luke Pearce
Mariehamn
76'
Julius Körkkö · Assist: Rasmus Karjalainen
AC Oulu
🔄
78'
Elias Kallio ↔ Matias Ojala
AC Oulu
🔄
78'
Luke Pearce ↔ Aaro Soiniemi
Mariehamn
🟨
80'
Marlo Hyvonen
Mariehamn
🟨
82'
Nikolaos Dosis
Mariehamn
🔄
90'
Rasmus Karjalainen ↔ Abdoulaye Koné
AC Oulu

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds 1.41
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 2.09
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
1.41
BTTS No
50.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
2.09
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
3.37
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.05
Correct Score 2-0
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
AC Oulu Win 88%
Draw 6%
Mariehamn Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Oulu1.58
Mariehamn0.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WWDLW
20 GF / 11 GA
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WLDWL
10 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
0.71
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
6
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
5
1.18
Shots on Goal
1.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AC Oulu AC Oulu 13 matches
Mariehamn Mariehamn 14 matches
AC Oulu Statistic Mariehamn
8 Wins 1
2 Draws 6
3 Losses 7
20 Goals For 10
11 Goals Against 23
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 0.71
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
6 BTTS Yes 7
7 Over 1.5 11
5 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 0
2 Failed To Score 7
1.18 Shots On Goal 1.2
4.27 Total Shots 2.8
1.64 Corners 1.2
17.1% Ball Possession 17.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by AC Oulu's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Mariehamn. AC Oulu arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 21 points compared to Mariehamn in 12 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AC Oulu expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Mariehamn in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mariehamn having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

AC Oulu Analysis

AC Oulu arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 21 points after 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, while the 16:8 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on R. Karjalainen (7 goals), J. Korkko (4 goals), E. Kallio (1 goals), with creative support from E. Kallio (2 assists), L. Ghezali (2 assists), R. Karjalainen (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn sit 12 with 4 points after 9 league matches. Their overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 5:14 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by S. Dahlstrom (2 goals), A. Huttunen (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Emmanuel Patut (1 assists), T. Koivisto (1 assists), Y. Amankwah (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AC Oulu won 7 times, Mariehamn won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:23 from AC Oulu's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: AC Oulu 4-4-2 / Mariehamn 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: AC Oulu wins 7, draws 1, Mariehamn wins 7

Lineups

AC Oulu
Formation
Mariehamn
Miguel Santos
Miguel Santos
Sami Sipola
Sami Sipola
Alex Lietsa
Alex Lietsa
Juha Pirinen
Juha Pirinen
Tuomas Kaukua
Tuomas Kaukua
Julius Paananen
Julius Paananen
Iiro Mendolin
Iiro Mendolin
Elias Kallio
Elias Kallio
Lamine Ghezali
Lamine Ghezali
Julius Körkkö
Julius Körkkö
Rasmus Karjalainen
🎯
Rasmus Karjalainen
Kevin Lund
Kevin Lund
Adam Stroud
Adam Stroud
Yeboah Amankwah
Yeboah Amankwah
Noah Nurmi
Noah Nurmi
Samson Ngulube
Samson Ngulube
Jiri Nissinen
Jiri Nissinen
Emmanuel Patut
Emmanuel Patut
Sebastian Dahlström
Sebastian Dahlström
Anttoni Huttunen
Anttoni Huttunen
Luke Pearce
🎯
Luke Pearce
Adam Larsson
Adam Larsson
AC Oulu 3-4-3
Starting XI
13
Miguel Santos
G
2
Sami Sipola
D
3
Alex Lietsa
D
66
Juha Pirinen
D
22
Tuomas Kaukua
M
6
Julius Paananen
M
21
Iiro Mendolin
↓ 67'
M
27
Elias Kallio
↓ 78'
M
11
Lamine Ghezali
↓ 46'
M
26
Julius Körkkö
⚽ 76'
F
7
Rasmus Karjalainen
🎯 76' ↓ 90'
M
Substitutes
14
Niklas Jokelainen
↑ 46'
M
30
Juuso Makelainen
↑ 67'
M
8
Matias Ojala
↑ 78'
M
32
Abdoulaye Koné
↑ 90'
F
99
Niklas Schulz
G
18
Adramane Cassama
D
29
Santeri Silander
D
20
Kalifa Jatta
F
Mariehamn 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
1
Kevin Lund
G
18
Adam Stroud
↓ 58'
M
38
Yeboah Amankwah
D
2
Noah Nurmi
D
31
Samson Ngulube
D
28
Jiri Nissinen
D
20
Emmanuel Patut
🟨 17'
M
10
Sebastian Dahlström
🟨 10'
M
16
Anttoni Huttunen
↓ 58'
M
11
Luke Pearce
🎯 65' ↓ 78' 🟨 73'
F
7
Adam Larsson
↓ 58'
F
Substitutes
6
Nikolaos Dosis
↑ 58' 🟨 82'
M
43
Leo Andersson
↑ 58'
F
64
Marlo Hyvonen
⚽ 65' ↑ 58' 🟨 80'
F
3
Aaro Soiniemi
↑ 78'
D
32
Matias Riikonen
G
5
Tuomas Koivisto
D
Last matches: AC Oulu
13.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
0
0
D
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
23.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
SJK
1
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
25.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
2
L
22.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
5
1
W
28.03.26
Fri
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
3
2
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
Last matches: Mariehamn
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
H2H: AC Oulu vs Mariehamn
18.10.25
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
0
L
26.07.25
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
0
1
W
17.05.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
0
1
L
19.10.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
2
L
01.09.24
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
1
L
17.05.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
1
D
16.09.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
3
2
W
09.07.23
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
W
03.06.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
3
2
W
28.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
4
W
23.07.22
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
3
1
W
24.04.22
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
1
L
16.10.21
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
2
L
07.08.21
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
0
W
09.05.21
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
3
1
L
Last matches: AC Oulu
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
H2H at home: AC Oulu
17.05.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
0
1
L
19.10.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
2
L
17.05.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
1
D
16.09.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
3
2
W
03.06.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
3
2
W
23.07.22
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
3
1
W
16.10.21
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
2
L
07.08.21
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
0
W
Last matches: Mariehamn
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
H2H away: Mariehamn
17.05.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
0
1
W
19.10.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
2
W
17.05.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
1
D
16.09.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
3
2
L
03.06.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
3
2
L
23.07.22
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
3
1
L
16.10.21
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
2
W
07.08.21
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 7.61
Draw 4.92
Home 1.41
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 7.67
Draw 2.57
Home 1.89
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 2.25 1.57
Over 2.5 1.77
Over 2.75 1.99
Over 3.0 2.32
Over 3.25 2.64
Over 3.5 2.93
Over 4.5 5.59
Under 1.5 4.01
Under 2.25 2.45
Under 2.5 2.09
Under 2.75 1.88
Under 3.0 1.63
Under 3.25 1.50
Under 3.5 1.41
Under 4.5 1.15
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 7.00
Draw 4.33
Home 1.38
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 7.00
Draw 2.50
Home 1.91
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 2.75
Home 1.73
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.22
Over 2.5 1.73
Over 3.5 2.75
Over 4.5 5.50
Over 5.5 11.00
Over 6.5 23.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 13.00
Under 1.5 4.00
Under 2.5 2.08
Under 3.5 1.40
Under 4.5 1.14
Under 5.5 1.05
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 7.38
Draw 4.60
Home 1.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.90
Draw 2.38
Home 1.89
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 6.52
Draw 2.85
Home 1.69
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.09
Over 1.5 1.19
Over 1.75 1.25
Over 2.0 1.31
Over 2.25 1.54
Over 2.5 1.74
Over 2.75 1.87
Over 3.0 2.18
Over 3.25 2.44
Over 3.5 2.72
Over 3.75 3.28
Over 4.0 4.30
Over 4.25 4.65
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 4.75 6.30
Over 5.0 8.90
Over 5.5 9.70
Over 6.5 23.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 11.90
Under 1.0 8.50
Under 1.25 5.30
Under 1.5 3.82
Under 1.75 3.46
Under 2.0 3.05
Under 2.25 2.42
Under 2.5 2.05
Under 2.75 1.80
Under 3.0 1.58
Under 3.25 1.44
Under 3.5 1.36
Under 3.75 1.25
Under 4.0 1.15
Under 4.25 1.12
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 4.75 1.06
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 7.50
Draw 4.50
Home 1.36
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.25
Draw 2.50
Home 1.80
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 3.00
Home 1.68
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.19
Over 2.0 1.28
Over 2.25 1.46
Over 2.5 1.64
Over 2.75 1.80
Over 3.0 2.06
Over 3.25 2.33
Over 3.5 2.60
Over 3.75 3.10
Over 4.0 4.00
Over 4.25 4.30
Over 4.5 4.60
Over 4.75 5.60
Over 5.0 8.00
Under 1.5 4.00
Under 2.0 3.25
Under 2.25 2.48
Under 2.5 2.10
Under 2.75 1.88
Under 3.0 1.66
Under 3.25 1.52
Under 3.5 1.43
Under 3.75 1.30
Under 4.0 1.20
Under 4.25 1.17
Under 4.5 1.15
Under 4.75 1.10
Under 5.0 1.05

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 7 5 1 20:11 9 26
D D D W W
2 12 8 1 3 18:9 9 25
W D W W W
3 13 6 6 1 19:12 7 24
W D D W W
4 12 5 4 3 21:13 8 19
D W W L D
5 11 5 2 4 17:15 2 17
W W W L W
6 11 4 5 2 11:9 2 17
W D L W D
7 11 4 3 4 12:11 1 15
L L W L L
8 12 4 3 5 19:21 -2 15
W W L W L
9 11 3 2 6 14:14 0 11
L L W L D
10 11 2 3 6 12:18 -6 9
L W L L L
11 12 1 4 7 10:27 -17 7
L L L W L
12 11 0 4 7 6:19 -13 4
L L L L D
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)