PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA

14.09.2026 17:45

Rio Ave

Estrela

Rio Ave vs Estrela Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Away Win

Probability 44.7%

Odds 2.48

BTTS

Yes

Probability 67.1%

Odds 1.67

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 77.2%

Odds 1.87

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Away Win	44.7%	2.48	▥
BTTS	Yes	67.1%	1.67	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	77.2%	1.87	▥
Corners O/U	Under 11.5 Corners	75.4%	1.18	▥
HT / FT	Draw / Away	-	6.00	▥
Correct Score	1-2	-	10.00	▥

Probability Distribution

Rio Ave Win 37.6%

Draw 17.7%

Estrela Win 44.7%

Expected Goals (xG)

Rio Ave1.3

Estrela1.82

Recent Form (Last 5)

Rio Ave

WWDLW

12 GF / 15 GA

Estrela

WLDWL

23 GF / 15 GA

Key Stats

1.33

Average Goals Scored

1.92

1.67

Average Goals Conceded

1.25

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

1.8

Shots on Goal

4.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rio Ave 9 matches

Estrela 12 matches

Rio Ave	Statistic	Estrela
4	Wins	6
1	Draws	5
4	Losses	1
12	Goals For	23
15	Goals Against	15
1.33	Avg Goals Scored	1.92
1.67	Avg Goals Conceded	1.25
3	BTTS Yes	9
8	Over 1.5	11
6	Over 2.5	7
4	Over 3.5	5
2	Clean Sheets	3
4	Failed To Score	0
1.8	Shots On Goal	4.6
6.6	Total Shots	11
3	Corners	3.6
42%	Ball Possession	45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Rio Ave won 5 times, Estrela won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:8 from Rio Ave's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.88 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (82.3%)

Predicted formations: Rio Ave 4-2-3-1 / Estrela 4-2-3-1

H2H summary: Rio Ave wins 5, draws 2, Estrela wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	15:2	13	18	W W W W W
2	Benfica	5	4	1	0	18:3	15	13	W W W W D
3	Sporting CP	5	4	1	0	14:5	9	13	W W W W D
4	Santa Clara	5	3	2	0	9:3	6	11	W D W W D
5	Arouca	5	3	1	1	7:3	4	10	D W L W W
6	Estrela Away	5	2	3	0	11:9	2	9	W D W D D
7	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	7:9	-2	8	W W L D L
8	GIL Vicente	4	2	1	1	3:1	2	7	L D W W
9	SC Braga	4	2	1	1	6:5	1	7	L W W D
10	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	6:8	-2	7	L L D W W
11	Alverca	6	1	2	3	8:11	-3	5	W L D L D
12	Vitória SC	6	1	1	4	4:7	-3	4	L D L W L
13	Nacional	6	1	1	4	7:11	-4	4	L L L L W
14	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	4:12	-8	4	L L W L D
15	Famalicao	5	0	3	2	4:6	-2	3	D D L L D
16	Rio Ave Home	5	1	0	4	2:11	-9	3	L L W L L
17	Estoril	5	0	2	3	2:7	-5	2	D L L L D
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	1:15	-14	1	L D L L L