FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
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Raatin stadion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80.9%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
AC Oulu Win 80.9%
Draw 4.3%
Lahti Win 14.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Oulu1.45
Lahti1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WWDLW
22 GF / 12 GA
Lahti Lahti
WLDWL
21 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.4
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
7
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
7
1.08
Shots on Goal
1.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AC Oulu AC Oulu 14 matches
Lahti Lahti 15 matches
AC Oulu Statistic Lahti
9 Wins 4
2 Draws 5
3 Losses 6
22 Goals For 21
12 Goals Against 19
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
7 BTTS Yes 10
8 Over 1.5 12
6 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 3
1.08 Shots On Goal 1.91
3.92 Total Shots 5.91
1.5 Corners 2.73
15.7% Ball Possession 30%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around AC Oulu's more proactive style and Lahti's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lahti. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. AC Oulu come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. AC Oulu arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 25 points compared to Lahti in 9 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AC Oulu expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Lahti in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lahti having the stronger overall control.

AC Oulu Analysis

AC Oulu approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 25 points after 12 outings. The return of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 18:9, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Karjalainen (7 goals), J. Korkko (5 goals), E. Kallio (1 goals), with creative support from R. Karjalainen (2 assists), E. Kallio (2 assists), L. Ghezali (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Lahti Analysis

Lahti approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 11 points from 11 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 14:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Belabid (2 goals), A. Lindholm (2 goals), Erik Andersson (2 goals), with creative support from Tòfol Montiel (3 assists), R. Sans (2 assists), A. Belabid (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, AC Oulu won 5 times, Lahti won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:11 from AC Oulu's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.15 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: AC Oulu 3-4-3 / Lahti 4-3-3
H2H summary: AC Oulu wins 5, draws 6, Lahti wins 2
Last matches: AC Oulu
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
0
0
D
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
23.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
SJK
1
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
25.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
2
L
22.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
5
1
W
28.03.26
Fri
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
3
2
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
Last matches: Lahti
17.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
0
1
L
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
28.03.26
Fri
Lahti
JIPPO
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Lahti
SJK Akatemia
3
1
W
25.02.26
Fri
Lahti
GrIFK
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Lahti
Haka
1
1
D
H2H: AC Oulu vs Lahti
25.04.26
H2H
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
L
14.09.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
3
0
W
14.07.24
H2H
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
2
W
12.06.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
2
2
D
22.09.23
H2H
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
L
12.08.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
26.05.23
H2H
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
2
W
02.10.22
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
2
1
W
04.09.22
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
0
0
D
22.05.22
H2H
Lahti
AC Oulu
0
2
W
22.10.21
H2H
Lahti
AC Oulu
0
0
D
18.09.21
H2H
Lahti
AC Oulu
0
0
D
28.08.21
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
Last matches: AC Oulu
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
H2H at home: AC Oulu
14.09.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
3
0
W
12.06.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
2
2
D
12.08.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
02.10.22
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
2
1
W
04.09.22
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
0
0
D
28.08.21
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
Last matches: Lahti
17.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
H2H away: Lahti
14.09.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
3
0
L
12.06.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
2
2
D
12.08.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
02.10.22
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
2
1
L
04.09.22
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
0
0
D
28.08.21
H2H
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 7 5 1 20:11 9 26
D D D W W
2 12 8 1 3 18:9 9 25
W D W W W
3 13 6 6 1 19:12 7 24
W D D W W
4 12 5 4 3 21:13 8 19
D W W L D
5 11 5 2 4 17:15 2 17
W W W L W
6 11 4 5 2 11:9 2 17
W D L W D
7 11 4 3 4 12:11 1 15
L L W L L
8 12 4 3 5 19:21 -2 15
W W L W L
9
Lahti Away
11 3 2 6 14:14 0 11
L L W L D
10 11 2 3 6 12:18 -6 9
L W L L L
11 12 1 4 7 10:27 -17 7
L L L W L
12 11 0 4 7 6:19 -13 4
L L L L D
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
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