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SCOTLAND › PREMIERSHIP
17.10.2026 14:00
Pittodrie Stadium
Aberdeen
Match Timeline
ST Mirren
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
2'
B. Lyons · Assist: C. Ronan
Aberdeen
🟨
31'
Ryan Carr
ST Mirren
⚽
42'
E. Sule · Assist: K. Phillips
ST Mirren
🔄
46'
C. Ronan ↔ S. Armstrong
Aberdeen
🔄
46'
B. Lyons ↔ T. Yogane
Aberdeen
🟨
56'
Paul Nsio
ST Mirren
⚽
58'
Kevin Nisbet
Aberdeen
VAR
58'
Tony Yogane
Aberdeen
⚽
58'
K. Nisbet
Aberdeen
🔄
59'
L. Thomas ↔ S. Ramos
ST Mirren
🔄
67'
P. Nsio ↔ F. Taylor
ST Mirren
🔄
71'
T. Olusanya ↔ A. Mouloua
Aberdeen
⚽
72'
A. Mouloua · Assist: A. Aremu
Aberdeen
🔄
74'
E. Sule ↔ J. Young
ST Mirren
🔄
76'
L. Smith ↔ E. Gyamfi
Aberdeen
🟨
77'
Stuart Armstrong
Aberdeen
🔄
90+3'
K. Nisbet ↔ F. Marshall
Aberdeen

Aberdeen vs ST Mirren Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Aberdeen Win 23.3%
Draw 12.2%
ST Mirren Win 64.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aberdeen1.5
ST Mirren1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aberdeen Aberdeen
L W D W D
9 GF / 3 GA
ST Mirren ST Mirren
L L L L W
2 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
4
BTTS Yes
3
5
Over 2.5
5
2.88
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aberdeen Aberdeen 13 matches
ST Mirren ST Mirren 9 matches
Aberdeen Statistic ST Mirren
5 Wins 4
2 Draws 1
6 Losses 4
17 Goals For 12
17 Goals Against 16
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
4 BTTS Yes 3
8 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 3
2.88 Shots On Goal 3.5
11.5 Total Shots 13.5
6.13 Corners 4.25
47.8% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward ST Mirren. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aberdeen expected to line up in 3-5-2 and ST Mirren in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward ST Mirren having the stronger overall control. ST Mirren arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Aberdeen Analysis

Aberdeen are currently 7 in the standings with 8 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 7:8 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Nisbet (4 goals), C. Ronan (1 goals), G. Molloy (1 goals), with creative support from K. Nisbet (1 assists), C. Ronan (1 assists), G. Molloy (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

ST Mirren Analysis

ST Mirren sit 5 with 10 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 8:9 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on K. Phillips (3 goals), Samuel Ramos (1 goals), N. Agrafiotis (1 goals), with creative support from Samuel Ramos (2 assists), N. Agrafiotis (1 assists), A. Gogić (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aberdeen won 4 times, ST Mirren won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:28 from Aberdeen's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.8%)
Predicted formations: Aberdeen 3-5-2 / ST Mirren 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Aberdeen wins 4, draws 2, ST Mirren wins 9

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 9 0 1 25:6 19 27
W W W L W
2 10 7 2 1 17:7 10 23
W D W W W
3 10 6 1 3 22:15 7 19
W L W D L
4 10 4 3 3 14:14 0 15
W D W W D
5 10 4 2 4 14:12 2 14
L D W W L
6 10 4 1 5 11:18 -7 13
W L L L L
7 10 3 3 4 12:12 0 12
W W L D W
8 10 3 3 4 11:15 -4 12
L D W D L
9 10 3 2 5 12:13 -1 11
L W L D W
10 10 2 2 6 11:18 -7 8
L L L L L
11 10 2 2 6 10:23 -13 8
L W L D W
12 10 2 1 7 10:16 -6 7
L L L D L
Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
Premiership (Relegation Group)