NORWAY ELITESERIEN
16.08.2026 12:30
Color Line Stadion
Referee: Mischa Kellerhals, Norway
Aalesund
Match Timeline
Valerenga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
M. Christensen
Aalesund
13'
Lucas Haren
Valerenga
14'
M. Grundetjern
Valerenga
16'
M. Reed · Assist: E. Osenbroch
Aalesund
29'
E. Hagen · Assist: M. Reed
Aalesund
33'
L. Haren · Assist: M. Grundetjern
Valerenga
35'
J. Orsahl
Aalesund
🔄
46'
J. Orsahl ↔ K. Nesso
Aalesund
🔄
46'
S. Jarl ↔ H. Sjatil
Valerenga
🔄
46'
G. Rajkovic ↔ M. Westergaard
Valerenga
56'
M. Christensen · Assist: U. Charles
Aalesund
🔄
60'
M. Reed ↔ K. Lonebu
Aalesund
63'
P. Strand · Assist: M. Ofkir
Valerenga
70'
M. Grundetjern · Assist: M. Ofkir
Valerenga
🔄
73'
I. Nasberg ↔ K. Tshiembe
Valerenga
🔄
74'
O. Gudmundsson ↔ P. Aukland
Aalesund
🔄
74'
U. Charles ↔ M. Andresen
Aalesund
🔄
74'
L. Haren ↔ O. Saeter
Valerenga
🟨
76'
Kevin Tshiembe
Valerenga
🔄
85'
P. Strand ↔ G. Zahid
Valerenga
85'
C. Lange · Assist: K. Finnsson
Valerenga
🔄
90+4'
E. Osenbroch ↔ I. Djantou
Aalesund

Aalesund vs Valerenga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 62.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
62.3%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aalesund Win 41.4%
Draw 20.8%
Valerenga Win 37.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aalesund1.64
Valerenga1.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aalesund Aalesund
WWDLW
39 GF / 49 GA
Valerenga Valerenga
WLDWL
47 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1.81
2.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.65
18
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
16
4.63
Shots on Goal
5.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aalesund Aalesund 24 matches
Valerenga Valerenga 26 matches
Aalesund Statistic Valerenga
6 Wins 12
8 Draws 4
10 Losses 10
39 Goals For 47
49 Goals Against 43
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.81
2.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.65
18 BTTS Yes 15
22 Over 1.5 21
15 Over 2.5 16
12 Over 3.5 12
3 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 6
4.63 Shots On Goal 5.38
14.94 Total Shots 15.69
4.75 Corners 6.94
43.9% Ball Possession 47.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aalesund expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Valerenga in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Valerenga having the stronger overall control. Valerenga arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Valerenga. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Aalesund Analysis

Aalesund sit 14 with 13 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 7 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 21:35 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Endre Hjertager Osenbroch (4 goals), Mathias Christensen (4 goals), Kristian Lonebu (3 goals), with creative support from Endre Hjertager Osenbroch (2 assists), Uba Charles (2 assists), Mathias Christensen (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Valerenga Analysis

Valerenga approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 20 points from 16 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 23:29 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Lucas Haren (6 goals), Filip Thorvaldsen (3 goals), Mathias Grundetjern (2 goals), with creative support from Henrik Bjørdal (6 assists), Mathias Grundetjern (3 assists), Kolbeinn Finnsson (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Aalesund won 1 times, Valerenga won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:38 from Aalesund's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.2%)
Predicted formations: Aalesund 5-3-2 / Valerenga 4-4-2
Missing players: Aalesund 4, Valerenga 4
H2H summary: Aalesund wins 1, draws 5, Valerenga wins 8

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 16 2 2 52:17 35 50
W W W W W
2 20 15 2 3 51:20 31 47
W D W L W
3 21 11 3 7 44:32 12 36
L W W W W
4 20 10 5 5 37:27 10 35
L L D L W
5 21 10 3 8 39:30 9 33
W W W L W
6 20 10 2 8 28:26 2 32
W W L D L
7 20 8 3 9 24:31 -7 27
D L W W W
8 20 8 2 10 37:31 6 26
L L D W W
9 21 6 7 8 24:29 -5 25
L D D D L
10 21 7 4 10 25:35 -10 25
W W L L D
11 20 6 5 9 27:41 -14 23
L L D L D
12 20 6 4 10 33:42 -9 22
L D L D L
13 21 4 9 8 33:46 -13 21
W L W L D
14 20 5 5 10 18:27 -9 20
L D D W L
15 21 5 4 12 21:40 -19 19
L L W D L
16 20 4 4 12 22:41 -19 16
W L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen