Login Register
09.10.2026 17:30
Estadio Jose Maria Minella
Referee: Luis Lobo Medina

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 44.6%
Odds 2.98
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 2.05
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.38
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
44.6%
2.98 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
2.05 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.38 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.5%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Aldosivi Win 37.7%
Draw 17.7%
Sarmiento Junin Win 44.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aldosivi1.02
Sarmiento Junin1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aldosivi Aldosivi
WWDLW
24 GF / 39 GA
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin
WLDWL
31 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.8
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
14
BTTS Yes
13
10
Over 2.5
13
3.37
Shots on Goal
3.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aldosivi Aldosivi 30 matches
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin 28 matches
Aldosivi Statistic Sarmiento Junin
4 Wins 12
10 Draws 2
16 Losses 14
24 Goals For 31
39 Goals Against 38
0.8 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
14 BTTS Yes 13
19 Over 1.5 20
10 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 9
14 Failed To Score 7
3.37 Shots On Goal 3.81
12.15 Total Shots 10.5
4.15 Corners 3.69
43.1% Ball Possession 44.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Sarmiento Junin carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 11 with 19 points while Aldosivi sit 14 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sarmiento Junin. Aldosivi have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aldosivi expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sarmiento Junin in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sarmiento Junin having the stronger overall control.

Aldosivi Analysis

Aldosivi approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 8 points from 16 matches. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 6:19 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Vombergar (4 goals), T. Fernández (3 goals), F. Román (1 goals), with creative support from T. Fernández (3 assists), F. Román (1 assists), S. Moya (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sarmiento Junin Analysis

Sarmiento Junin sit 11 with 19 points after 16 league matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 13:20 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Junior Marabel (8 goals), Mauricio Martínez (2 goals), Cristian Zabala (1 goals), with creative support from Junior Marabel (3 assists), Cristian Zabala (1 assists), Pablo Magnin (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Aldosivi won 2 times, Sarmiento Junin won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:16 from Aldosivi's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.08 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.3%)
Predicted formations: Aldosivi 4-2-3-1 / Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
H2H summary: Aldosivi wins 2, draws 4, Sarmiento Junin wins 6

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
D W W L W
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
L W W W D
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
W L D D W
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
D W W D L
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W W D D D
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D D D W W
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
W W W D D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
W W L L L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
W L D D D
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L L L D
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
L D W L W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
D D D L L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
L L L W D
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L W L W L
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L L D
Knockout Phase