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09.10.2026 15:00
FT
1 - 0
OmaSp Stadion
Referee: A. Hajizadeh
SJK
Match Timeline
Lahti
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
Armaan Wilson · Assist: Kelwin Souza do Nascimento
SJK
🟨
34'
Jeremiah Streng
SJK
🟨
39'
K. Nwanege
SJK
🔄
62'
Vaino Vehkonen ↔ José Müller
Lahti
🔄
62'
Aaron Lindholm ↔ Amir Belabid
Lahti
🔄
62'
Justus Ojanen ↔ Martim Ferreira
Lahti
🔄
69'
Otso Koskinen ↔ Erik Andersson
Lahti
🔄
69'
Kelwin Souza do Nascimento ↔ Elias Mastokangas
SJK
🟨
79'
Nicolas Gianini Dantas
Lahti
🔄
80'
Armaan Wilson ↔ Leon Vesterbacka
SJK
🔄
86'
Topias Inkinen ↔ Armend Kabashi
Lahti
🔄
87'
Jeremiah Streng ↔ Aziz Cisse
SJK
🔄
87'
Salim Giabo Yussif ↔ Souleimane Bagayogo
SJK
🟨
89'
Momodou Sarr
Lahti

SJK vs Lahti Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 45.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
45.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
74.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
SJK Win 38.3%
Draw 16.2%
Lahti Win 45.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
SJK1.08
Lahti1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
SJK SJK
W D D D L
4 GF / 4 GA
Lahti Lahti
D L W W W
7 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1
17
BTTS Yes
16
15
Over 2.5
11
1.52
Shots on Goal
2.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SJK SJK 30 matches
Lahti Lahti 29 matches
SJK Statistic Lahti
7 Wins 11
11 Draws 9
12 Losses 9
34 Goals For 37
39 Goals Against 29
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1
17 BTTS Yes 16
23 Over 1.5 21
15 Over 2.5 11
7 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 9
11 Failed To Score 6
1.52 Shots On Goal 2.16
4.36 Total Shots 7.04
1.96 Corners 2.64
20.3% Ball Possession 30.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Lahti's more proactive style and SJK's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lahti. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lahti carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 32 points while SJK sit 10 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with SJK expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Lahti in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lahti having the stronger overall control.

SJK Analysis

So far, SJK have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 19 points from 22 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 25:33 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Mastokangas (2 goals), A. Boström (1 goals), Kelwin (1 goals), with creative support from E. Mömmö (1 assists), J. Streng (1 assists), Araújo (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lahti Analysis

Lahti are currently 7 in the standings with 32 points from 22 matches. The record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 26:19 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Martim Ferreira (3 goals), Tòfol Montiel (1 goals), Y. Cassubie (1 goals), with creative support from Tòfol Montiel (2 assists), Martim Ferreira (1 assists), O. Koskinen (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, SJK won 2 times, Lahti won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:10 from SJK's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 4.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.8%)
Predicted formations: SJK 3-4-1-2 / Lahti 4-3-3
H2H summary: SJK wins 2, draws 2, Lahti wins 1

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
D W L L W
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W L W D W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
D W W W D
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
L L L D D
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
W W L W L
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L L W L L
7
Lahti Away
22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W L D L W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L L L D
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
W D W W W
10
SJK Home
22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
L W W D D
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
W D D W D
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
D D L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs