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PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
09.10.2026 19:15
Estádio Municipal de Braga
Referee: Joao Pinheiro

SC Braga vs Sporting CP Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.7%
Odds 3.24
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.12
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.7%
3.24 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.12 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.49 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
SC Braga Win 53.7%
Draw 3.4%
Sporting CP Win 42.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
SC Braga1.32
Sporting CP2.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
SC Braga SC Braga
WWDLW
27 GF / 8 GA
Sporting CP Sporting CP
WLDWL
37 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.59
Average Goals Scored
3.08
0.47
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
5
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
9
3.58
Shots on Goal
5.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SC Braga SC Braga 17 matches
Sporting CP Sporting CP 12 matches
SC Braga Statistic Sporting CP
11 Wins 9
5 Draws 3
1 Losses 0
27 Goals For 37
8 Goals Against 11
1.59 Avg Goals Scored 3.08
0.47 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
5 BTTS Yes 8
8 Over 1.5 12
7 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 9
12 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 0
3.58 Shots On Goal 5.75
8.17 Total Shots 12.75
3.92 Corners 4.5
47.8% Ball Possession 57.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with SC Braga expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Sporting CP in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sporting CP having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sporting CP. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

SC Braga Analysis

SC Braga are currently 6 in the standings with 11 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, while the 7:5 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Pau Victor (3 goals), Gabri Martínez (1 goals), Fran Navarro (1 goals), with creative support from E. Tıknaz (2 assists), Pau Victor (1 assists), Vitor Carvalho (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Sporting CP Analysis

Sporting CP come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 15 points after 7 matches. They have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a 17:8 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on L. Suárez (5 goals), Flávio Gonçalves (2 goals), M. Araújo (1 goals), with creative support from M. Araújo (2 assists), L. Suárez (1 assists), Flávio Gonçalves (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, SC Braga won 2 times, Sporting CP won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:34 from SC Braga's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: SC Braga 3-4-3 / Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: SC Braga wins 2, draws 5, Sporting CP wins 8

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 7 0 0 18:3 15 21
W W W W W
2 7 5 1 1 22:7 15 16
L W W W W
3 7 4 3 0 17:8 9 15
D D W W W
4 7 4 3 0 11:4 7 15
D W W D W
5 7 3 2 2 10:7 3 11
D L D W L
6 6 3 2 1 7:5 2 11
D W L W W
7 7 3 2 2 9:9 0 11
W W W L D
8 7 2 4 1 14:14 0 10
L D W D W
9 6 2 2 2 5:5 0 8
D L L D W
10 7 2 2 3 9:11 -2 8
W W L D L
11 7 2 2 3 8:12 -4 8
D L L L D
12 7 2 2 3 8:14 -6 8
D W L L W
13 7 1 4 2 9:7 2 7
W D D D L
14 7 1 2 4 5:8 -3 5
D L D L W
15 7 1 1 5 7:15 -8 4
L L L L L
16 7 1 1 5 5:15 -10 4
L D L L W
17 7 1 1 5 3:16 -13 4
W L D L L
18 7 0 2 5 3:10 -7 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2