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09.10.2026 23:00
Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel
Referee: Gustavo Tejera

Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.6%
Odds 2.49
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.09
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.6%
2.49 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.09 ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.67 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Maldonado Win 57.6%
Draw 7%
Liverpool Montevideo Win 35.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Maldonado1.34
Liverpool Montevideo1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
WWDLW
49 GF / 27 GA
Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo
WLDWL
43 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
1.3
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
14
BTTS Yes
15
13
Over 2.5
15
0.75
Shots on Goal
2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 31 matches
Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 33 matches
Deportivo Maldonado Statistic Liverpool Montevideo
17 Wins 13
7 Draws 11
7 Losses 9
49 Goals For 43
27 Goals Against 32
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
14 BTTS Yes 15
23 Over 1.5 21
13 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 7
14 Clean Sheets 15
6 Failed To Score 9
0.75 Shots On Goal 2
1.75 Total Shots 5.33
0.75 Corners 1.83
14.5% Ball Possession 27.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Liverpool Montevideo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Deportivo Maldonado come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Maldonado expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Liverpool Montevideo in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Liverpool Montevideo having the stronger overall control.

Deportivo Maldonado Analysis

Deportivo Maldonado come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 58 points after 31 matches. They have recorded 17 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, with a 49:27 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Liverpool Montevideo Analysis

From their first 31 matches, Liverpool Montevideo have collected 49 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses, while the 42:30 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Maldonado won 2 times, Liverpool Montevideo won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:7 from Deportivo Maldonado's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Maldonado 4-3-1-2 / Liverpool Montevideo 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Deportivo Maldonado wins 2, draws 0, Liverpool Montevideo wins 3

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 19 6 6 50:25 25 62
W D W W W
2 31 17 7 7 49:27 22 58
W W W L W
3 31 16 6 9 52:37 15 54
L D L W W
4 31 14 11 6 36:25 11 53
L L D W L
5 31 16 4 11 47:38 9 52
W W W D D
6 31 14 8 9 40:36 4 50
W W D D L
7 31 13 10 8 42:30 12 49
W W D L W
8 31 10 8 13 32:42 -10 38
L L L D D
9 31 10 7 14 41:42 -1 37
W L L L L
10 31 9 10 12 35:39 -4 37
D D W D D
11 31 8 11 12 28:36 -8 35
L W L W D
12 31 8 9 14 29:36 -7 33
L L L D L
13 31 9 6 16 23:45 -22 33
L D L W W
14 31 8 7 16 29:42 -13 31
D L L L L
15 31 5 14 12 26:40 -14 29
W L D D L
16 31 8 4 19 27:46 -19 28
L W W L W
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