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ECUADOR › LIGA PRO
09.10.2026 18:00
Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Referee: Augusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista

Libertad vs Leones del Norte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60%
Odds 2.54
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 2.45
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60%
2.54 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
2.45 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.8%
1.29 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 60%
Draw 11.5%
Leones del Norte Win 28.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad1.1
Leones del Norte1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
35 GF / 35 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
32 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
15
BTTS Yes
15
14
Over 2.5
10
3.97
Shots on Goal
3.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 31 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 31 matches
Libertad Statistic Leones del Norte
12 Wins 10
8 Draws 10
11 Losses 11
35 Goals For 32
35 Goals Against 33
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
15 BTTS Yes 15
19 Over 1.5 22
14 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 3
10 Clean Sheets 10
9 Failed To Score 8
3.97 Shots On Goal 3.97
11.29 Total Shots 12.77
3.77 Corners 4.1
44.4% Ball Possession 46.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Leones del Norte. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Libertad expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Leones del Norte in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leones del Norte having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Leones del Norte arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Libertad Analysis

From their first 30 matches, Libertad have collected 41 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses, while the 33:34 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Vilington Branda (7 goals), Gabriel Cortez (5 goals), Antony Chére (5 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Cortez (5 assists), Antony Chére (2 assists), I. Zambrano (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte sit 8 with 39 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 31:32, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Juan Anangonó (6 goals), Darío Pazmiño (3 goals), Cristhian Solano (3 goals), with creative support from R. Arroyo (3 assists), Darío Pazmiño (2 assists), Elián Pepinós (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 0 times, Leones del Norte won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:4 from Libertad's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.5%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 5-4-1 / Leones del Norte 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Libertad wins 0, draws 1, Leones del Norte wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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