Libertad vs Leones del Norte Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
60%
|
2.54 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
71.2%
|
1.91 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
48.9%
|
2.45 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
89.8%
|
1.29 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
4.00 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
10.00 |
Libertad
Leones del Norte
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Libertad
31 matches
Leones del Norte
31 matches
| Libertad | Statistic | Leones del Norte |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wins | 10 |
| 8 | Draws | 10 |
| 11 | Losses | 11 |
| 35 | Goals For | 32 |
| 35 | Goals Against | 33 |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.03 |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.06 |
| 15 | BTTS Yes | 15 |
| 19 | Over 1.5 | 22 |
| 14 | Over 2.5 | 10 |
| 6 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 10 | Clean Sheets | 10 |
| 9 | Failed To Score | 8 |
| 3.97 | Shots On Goal | 3.97 |
| 11.29 | Total Shots | 12.77 |
| 3.77 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 44.4% | Ball Possession | 46.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Leones del Norte. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Libertad expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Leones del Norte in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leones del Norte having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Leones del Norte arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.
From their first 30 matches, Libertad have collected 41 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses, while the 33:34 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Vilington Branda (7 goals), Gabriel Cortez (5 goals), Antony Chére (5 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Cortez (5 assists), Antony Chére (2 assists), I. Zambrano (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Leones del Norte sit 8 with 39 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 31:32, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Juan Anangonó (6 goals), Darío Pazmiño (3 goals), Cristhian Solano (3 goals), with creative support from R. Arroyo (3 assists), Darío Pazmiño (2 assists), Elián Pepinós (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 0 times, Leones del Norte won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:4 from Libertad's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | 40 | 74 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 2 | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | 24 | 51 |
W
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | 8 | 51 |
W
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 4 | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | 5 | 50 |
D
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 5 | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | 7 | 46 |
D
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | 7 | 44 |
D
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 7 |
Libertad
Home
|
30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | -1 | 41 |
L
W
D
L
W
|
| 8 |
Leones del Norte
Away
|
30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 39 |
L
D
W
L
L
|
| 9 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | -3 | 39 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 39 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 11 | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 |
L
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 12 | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 36 |
D
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | -11 | 33 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | -14 | 32 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | -12 | 28 |
D
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | -25 | 21 |
D
L
L
W
L
|