GERMANY › BUNDESLIGA
16.05.2026 13:30
Voith-Arena
Referee: Robert Hartmann, Germany
1. FC Heidenheim
Match Timeline
FSV Mainz 05
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
P. Tietz
FSV Mainz 05
⚽
43'
N. Amiri · Assist: P. Tietz
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
46'
M. Pieringer ↔ C. Conteh
1. FC Heidenheim
🔄
46'
M. Busch ↔ O. H. Traore
1. FC Heidenheim
🔄
46'
S. Posch ↔ D. da Costa
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
65'
A. Ibrahimovic ↔ S. Schimmer
1. FC Heidenheim
🔄
68'
S. Widmer ↔ A. Caci
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
68'
N. Amiri ↔ Lee Jae-Sung
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
70'
Eren Dinkçi
1. FC Heidenheim
🟨
70'
Sheraldo Becker
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
73'
E. Dinkci ↔ M. Honsak
1. FC Heidenheim
🔄
73'
N. Dorsch ↔ A. Beck
1. FC Heidenheim
🔄
77'
S. Becker ↔ L. Maloney
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
84'
P. Tietz ↔ N. Weiper
FSV Mainz 05

1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
1. FC Heidenheim Win 36.9%
Draw 10.1%
FSV Mainz 05 Win 53.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
1. FC Heidenheim1.3
FSV Mainz 051.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim
WWDLW
41 GF / 70 GA
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
WLDWL
58 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.29
2.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
21
BTTS Yes
25
23
Over 2.5
22
3.58
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 matches
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 45 matches
1. FC Heidenheim Statistic FSV Mainz 05
6 Wins 16
8 Draws 12
19 Losses 17
41 Goals For 58
70 Goals Against 63
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
2.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
21 BTTS Yes 25
30 Over 1.5 35
23 Over 2.5 22
14 Over 3.5 13
1 Clean Sheets 9
11 Failed To Score 13
3.58 Shots On Goal 4
11.3 Total Shots 12.4
4.48 Corners 5.24
41.9% Ball Possession 45.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FSV Mainz 05. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FSV Mainz 05 arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with 1. FC Heidenheim expected to line up in 4-2-2-2 and FSV Mainz 05 in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FSV Mainz 05 having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

1. FC Heidenheim Analysis

1. FC Heidenheim approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 26 points from 33 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 8 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 41:70 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Budu Zivzivadze (6 goals), S. Schimmer (5 goals), M. Pieringer (4 goals), with creative support from Marnon Busch (5 assists), Arijon Ibrahimović (4 assists), Jan Schöppner (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

FSV Mainz 05 Analysis

FSV Mainz 05 approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 37 points from 33 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 14 defeats with a 42:53 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Amiri (11 goals), Paul Nebel (5 goals), Jae-sung Lee (4 goals), with creative support from Danny da Costa (3 assists), Sheraldo Becker (3 assists), B. Hollerbach (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, 1. FC Heidenheim won 2 times, FSV Mainz 05 won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:7 from 1. FC Heidenheim's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
Predicted formations: 1. FC Heidenheim 4-2-2-2 / FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
Missing players: 1. FC Heidenheim 2, FSV Mainz 05 5
H2H summary: 1. FC Heidenheim wins 2, draws 1, FSV Mainz 05 wins 3

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation