BRAZIL SERIE B
03.05.2026 19:00
Estadio Primeiro de Maio
Referee: F. dos Santos
São Bernardo
Match Timeline
Ponte Preta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
Foguinho · Assist: Pedro Vitor
São Bernardo
🟨
21'
Foguinho
São Bernardo
🔄
46'
Thalys ↔ Lucas Justen
Ponte Preta
52'
Para · Assist: Rodrigo Ferreira
São Bernardo
🟨
58'
Pedro Vitor
São Bernardo
🔄
61'
Pedro Vitor ↔ Fabricio Daniel
São Bernardo
🔄
61'
Daniel Amorim ↔ Felipe Garcia
São Bernardo
🔄
67'
Rodrigo Souza ↔ Luis Phelipe
Ponte Preta
🔄
67'
Diego Tavares ↔ Miguel Morais
Ponte Preta
🔄
71'
Romisson ↔ Hyoran
São Bernardo
🔄
71'
Foguinho ↔ Marcao Silva
São Bernardo
🟨
74'
Marcio Silva
Ponte Preta
🟨
75'
Lucas Cunha
Ponte Preta
79'
Fabricio Daniel
São Bernardo
🔄
80'
Echapora ↔ Pedrinho
São Bernardo
🔄
85'
Willian Pottker ↔ Brandao
Ponte Preta
🔄
86'
Bryan Borges ↔ Jonathan Cafu
Ponte Preta
🟨
90'
Luis Phelipe
Ponte Preta

São Bernardo vs Ponte Preta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54%
-
BTTS BTTS No
55.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
São Bernardo Win 54%
Draw 20.7%
Ponte Preta Win 25.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
São Bernardo1.2
Ponte Preta0.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WWDLW
8 GF / 5 GA
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WLDWL
5 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
0.83
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
2
3.5
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

São Bernardo São Bernardo 6 matches
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 6 matches
São Bernardo Statistic Ponte Preta
3 Wins 2
1 Draws 1
2 Losses 3
8 Goals For 5
5 Goals Against 6
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 3
4 Over 1.5 3
3 Over 2.5 2
0 Over 3.5 0
2 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 2
3.5 Shots On Goal 4.5
9.5 Total Shots 10.33
3.67 Corners 4.17
38.8% Ball Possession 44.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around São Bernardo's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Ponte Preta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. São Bernardo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 10 points compared to Ponte Preta in 15 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 10 points after 6 outings. With 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 8:5, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Daniel Amorim (1 goals), Felipe Garcia (1 goals), Foguinho (1 goals), with creative support from Echapora (2 assists), Pedro Vitor (1 assists), Fabricio Daniel (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Ponte Preta Analysis

With 7 points from 6 games and a place of 15, Ponte Preta still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 5:6, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Willian Pottker (2 goals), Bryan Borges (1 goals), Diego Tavares (1 goals), with creative support from Luis Phelipe (1 assists), Brandao (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, São Bernardo won 4 times, Ponte Preta won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:3 from São Bernardo's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.3%)
Predicted formations: São Bernardo 4-3-3 / Ponte Preta 4-3-3
H2H summary: São Bernardo wins 4, draws 1, Ponte Preta wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 29 13 8 8 41:36 5 47
W D W W D
6 29 13 8 8 28:27 1 47
L L L W L
7 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
8 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 10 13 6 30:22 8 43
W D W L W
11 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
12 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
13 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
14 29 10 8 11 35:36 -1 38
L D L W W
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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