ITALY › SERIE A
04.05.2026 18:45
Stadio Olimpico
Referee: L. Zufferli
AS Roma
Match Timeline
Fiorentina
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
13'
G. Mancini · Assist: N. Pisilli
AS Roma
⚽
17'
Wesley Franca · Assist: M. Hermoso
AS Roma
🟨
25'
Marin Pongračić
Fiorentina
⚽
34'
M. Hermoso · Assist: M. Kone
AS Roma
🔄
46'
J. Harrison ↔ R. Braschi
Fiorentina
🔄
46'
A. Gudmundsson ↔ F. Parisi
Fiorentina
🔄
46'
M. Pongracic ↔ P. Comuzzo
Fiorentina
🟨
48'
Mario Hermoso
AS Roma
⚽
58'
N. Pisilli · Assist: D. Malen
AS Roma
🔄
64'
M. Kone ↔ S. El Shaarawy
AS Roma
🟨
66'
Fabiano Parisi
Fiorentina
🔄
72'
M. Soule ↔ P. Dybala
AS Roma
🔄
72'
G. Mancini ↔ D. Ghilardi
AS Roma
🔄
75'
N. Fagioli ↔ J. Fazzini
Fiorentina
🔄
75'
M. Brescianini ↔ G. Fabbian
Fiorentina
🔄
83'
M. Hermoso ↔ J. Ziolkowski
AS Roma
🔄
83'
D. Malen ↔ R. Vaz
AS Roma
🟨
90+2'
Stephan El Shaarawy
AS Roma

AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 33.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
33.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AS Roma Win 56.5%
Draw 7.7%
Fiorentina Win 35.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Roma1.43
Fiorentina1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
AS Roma AS Roma
WWDLW
67 GF / 43 GA
Fiorentina Fiorentina
WLDWL
64 GF / 65 GA
Key Stats
1.49
Average Goals Scored
1.31
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
19
BTTS Yes
29
18
Over 2.5
30
4.53
Shots on Goal
4.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AS Roma AS Roma 45 matches
Fiorentina Fiorentina 49 matches
AS Roma Statistic Fiorentina
24 Wins 17
6 Draws 13
15 Losses 19
67 Goals For 64
43 Goals Against 65
1.49 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
19 BTTS Yes 29
31 Over 1.5 37
18 Over 2.5 30
7 Over 3.5 11
18 Clean Sheets 12
8 Failed To Score 12
4.53 Shots On Goal 4.06
13.22 Total Shots 13.63
5.11 Corners 4.67
55.2% Ball Possession 51.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by AS Roma's more proactive style and Fiorentina's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AS Roma expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Fiorentina in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fiorentina having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fiorentina. AS Roma arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 61 points compared to Fiorentina in 16 on 37, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

AS Roma Analysis

So far, AS Roma have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 61 points from 34 matches. Their overall return of 19 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 48:29 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Malen (11 goals), M. Soule (6 goals), L. Pellegrini (4 goals), with creative support from M. Soule (5 assists), D. Rensch (4 assists), L. Pellegrini (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. Although they are without N. El Aynaoui, L. Pellegrini, A. Dovbyk, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

Fiorentina Analysis

With 37 points from 34 games and a place of 16, Fiorentina still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 13 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 38:45 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Moise Kean (8 goals), R. Mandragora (6 goals), A. Gudmundsson (5 goals), with creative support from A. Gudmundsson (4 assists), R. Mandragora (3 assists), Nicolò Fagioli (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with T. Lamptey, L. Balbo, N. Fortini unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AS Roma won 10 times, Fiorentina won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:17 from AS Roma's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: AS Roma 3-4-2-1 / Fiorentina 4-3-3
Missing players: AS Roma 5, Fiorentina 5
H2H summary: AS Roma wins 10, draws 2, Fiorentina wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B