POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
15.05.2026 16:00
KGHM Zaglebie Arena
Referee: P. Malec
Zaglebie Lubin
Match Timeline
Pogon Szczecin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
11'
J. Kolan ↔ A. Radwanski
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
46'
M. Kosidis ↔ L. Szabo
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
46'
S. Kowalczyk ↔ T. Makowski
Zaglebie Lubin
🟨
71'
Attila Szalai
Pogon Szczecin
🟨
74'
Levente Szabó
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
74'
P. Mukairu ↔ K. Grosicki
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
74'
L. Wahlqvist ↔ H. Ali
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
77'
↔ J. Sypek
Zaglebie Lubin
⚽
79'
H. Ali
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
83'
L. Koutris ↔ Leo Borges
Pogon Szczecin
🟨
85'
Hussein Ali
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
85'
M. Grzybek ↔ M. Mlinaric
Zaglebie Lubin
🟨
87'
Valentin Cojocaru
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
87'
M. Agger ↔ B. Mendy
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
87'
N. Lawa ↔ D. Loncar
Pogon Szczecin

Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
71.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Zaglebie Lubin Win 71%
Draw 0%
Pogon Szczecin Win 29%
Expected Goals (xG)
Zaglebie Lubin1.45
Pogon Szczecin1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin
WWDLW
45 GF / 36 GA
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
WLDWL
45 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
16
BTTS Yes
19
15
Over 2.5
18
3.66
Shots on Goal
4.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 32 matches
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 32 matches
Zaglebie Lubin Statistic Pogon Szczecin
13 Wins 12
9 Draws 5
10 Losses 15
45 Goals For 45
36 Goals Against 48
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
16 BTTS Yes 19
22 Over 1.5 27
15 Over 2.5 18
10 Over 3.5 7
11 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 7
3.66 Shots On Goal 4.56
12 Total Shots 14.56
3.72 Corners 5.03
39.9% Ball Possession 51.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Zaglebie Lubin's more proactive style and Pogon Szczecin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Pogon Szczecin. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Zaglebie Lubin expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Pogon Szczecin in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Pogon Szczecin having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Zaglebie Lubin Analysis

Zaglebie Lubin come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 48 points from 32 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 9 draws, and 10 losses, while the 45:36 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Kosidis (6 goals), M. Regula (5 goals), A. Radwanski (4 goals), with creative support from A. Radwanski (6 assists), M. Regula (3 assists), Jakub Sypek (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Pogon Szczecin Analysis

So far, Pogon Szczecin have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 41 points from 32 matches. The record of 12 wins, 5 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 45:48 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Paul Mukairu (8 goals), K. Grosicki (6 goals), F. Ulvestad (5 goals), with creative support from K. Grosicki (5 assists), F. Ulvestad (3 assists), Sam Greenwood (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Zaglebie Lubin won 4 times, Pogon Szczecin won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:24 from Zaglebie Lubin's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Zaglebie Lubin 4-2-3-1 / Pogon Szczecin 4-4-2
H2H summary: Zaglebie Lubin wins 4, draws 2, Pogon Szczecin wins 9

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation