POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
--.--.---- --:--
KGHM Zaglebie Arena
Referee: D. Kos
Zaglebie Lubin
Match Timeline
Nieciecza
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Michał Nalepa
Zaglebie Lubin
🟨
12'
Damian Hilbrycht
Nieciecza
🟨
15'
Kamil Zapolnik
Nieciecza
20'
M. Regula · Assist: I. Orlikowski
Zaglebie Lubin
🟨
37'
Mateusz Grzybek
Zaglebie Lubin
🟨
42'
Adam Radwański
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
46'
M. Matysik ↔ G. Isik
Nieciecza
🟨
58'
Marcel Regula
Zaglebie Lubin
60'
D. Hilbrycht · Assist: J. Jimenez
Nieciecza
🔄
63'
M. Grzybek ↔ L. Lucic
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
64'
A. Radwanski ↔ J. Sypek
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
64'
M. Dziewiatowski ↔ F. Kocaba
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
64'
M. Fassbender ↔ R. Kurzawa
Nieciecza
🟨
66'
Marcel Regula
Zaglebie Lubin
🟥
66'
Marcel Regula
Zaglebie Lubin
🟨
76'
Luka Lucic
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
77'
L. Szabo ↔ S. Kowalczyk
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
78'
D. Dabrowski ↔ M. Kosidis
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
78'
K. Zapolnik ↔ I. Durdov
Nieciecza
🔄
83'
I. Strzalek ↔ D. Biniek
Nieciecza
90'
I. Durdov
Nieciecza

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 70.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
70.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Zaglebie Lubin Win 86.7%
Draw 11.5%
Nieciecza Win 1.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Zaglebie Lubin1.61
Nieciecza1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin
WWDLW
42 GF / 34 GA
Nieciecza Nieciecza
WLDWL
34 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.86
15
BTTS Yes
20
14
Over 2.5
15
3.66
Shots on Goal
4.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 29 matches
Nieciecza Nieciecza 29 matches
Zaglebie Lubin Statistic Nieciecza
12 Wins 6
8 Draws 7
9 Losses 16
42 Goals For 34
34 Goals Against 54
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.86
15 BTTS Yes 20
20 Over 1.5 25
14 Over 2.5 15
10 Over 3.5 10
9 Clean Sheets 3
8 Failed To Score 6
3.66 Shots On Goal 4.21
11.83 Total Shots 12.66
3.59 Corners 4.31
40.2% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Zaglebie Lubin's more proactive style and Nieciecza's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nieciecza. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Zaglebie Lubin expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nieciecza in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nieciecza having the stronger overall control. Zaglebie Lubin arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 44 points compared to Nieciecza in 18 on 25, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Zaglebie Lubin Analysis

With 44 points from 29 games and a place of 5, Zaglebie Lubin still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 42:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Kosidis (6 goals), A. Radwanski (4 goals), M. Regula (4 goals), with creative support from A. Radwanski (6 assists), M. Regula (3 assists), K. Szmyt (3 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Nieciecza Analysis

Nieciecza sit 18 with 25 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 33:51, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through J. Jimenez (5 goals), K. Kubica (5 goals), K. Zapolnik (4 goals), with creative support from Damian Hilbrycht (3 assists), Sergio Guerrero (2 assists), M. Ambrosiewicz (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Zaglebie Lubin won 2 times, Nieciecza won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:4 from Zaglebie Lubin's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (98.2%)
Predicted formations: Zaglebie Lubin 4-2-3-1 / Nieciecza 3-4-3
H2H summary: Zaglebie Lubin wins 2, draws 1, Nieciecza wins 1
Stats
Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin
Nieciecza Nieciecza
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
4
6 Corner Kicks 4
11 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 1
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Goal 8
5 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 4
9 Shots insidebox 7
1 Shots outsidebox 8
6 Goalkeeper Saves 1
275 Total passes 389
185 Passes accurate 314
0.59 expected_goals 1.65
🟨 6 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Zaglebie Lubin
Formation
Nieciecza
J. Buric
J. Buric
I. Orlikowski
🎯
I. Orlikowski
M. Nalepa
M. Nalepa
D. Michalski
D. Michalski
J. Corluka
J. Corluka
D. Dabrowski
D. Dabrowski
M. Grzybek
M. Grzybek
A. Radwanski
A. Radwanski
M. Dziewiatowski
M. Dziewiatowski
M. Regula
M. Regula
L. Szabo
L. Szabo
A. Chovan
A. Chovan
M. Matysik
M. Matysik
L. Masoero
L. Masoero
A. Kasperkiewicz
A. Kasperkiewicz
R. Boboc
R. Boboc
M. Ambrosiewicz
M. Ambrosiewicz
I. Strzalek
I. Strzalek
D. Hilbrycht
D. Hilbrycht
M. Fassbender
M. Fassbender
J. Jimenez
🎯
J. Jimenez
K. Zapolnik
K. Zapolnik
Zaglebie Lubin 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
1
J. Buric
G
31
I. Orlikowski
🎯 20'
D
25
M. Nalepa
🟨 10'
D
4
D. Michalski
D
16
J. Corluka
D
8
D. Dabrowski
↓ 78'
M
13
M. Grzybek
↓ 63' 🟨 37'
M
18
A. Radwanski
↓ 64' 🟨 42'
M
20
M. Dziewiatowski
↓ 64'
M
44
M. Regula
⚽ 20' 🟨 58' 🟨 66' 🟥 66'
F
17
L. Szabo
↓ 77'
F
Substitutes
12
R. Gikiewicz
G
35
L. Lucic
↑ 63' 🟨 76'
D
5
A. Lawniczak
D
19
J. Sypek
↑ 64'
M
26
J. Kolan
M
84
J. Ligocki
M
11
A. Wozniak
M
7
S. Kowalczyk
↑ 77'
M
9
M. Kosidis
↑ 78'
F
39
F. Kocaba
↑ 64'
M
94
M. Urbanski
D
Nieciecza 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
A. Chovan
G
32
M. Matysik
↓ 46'
D
5
L. Masoero
D
3
A. Kasperkiewicz
D
27
R. Boboc
M
28
M. Ambrosiewicz
M
86
I. Strzalek
↓ 83'
M
21
D. Hilbrycht
⚽ 60' 🟨 12'
M
7
M. Fassbender
↓ 64'
F
9
J. Jimenez
🎯 60'
F
25
K. Zapolnik
↓ 78' 🟨 15'
F
Substitutes
99
M. Mleczko
G
8
R. Kurzawa
↑ 64'
M
26
W. Jakubik
M
6
M. Wolski
D
29
G. Isik
↑ 46'
D
19
I. Durdov
⚽ 90' ↑ 78'
F
17
D. Biniek
↑ 83'
M
Last matches: Zaglebie Lubin
18.07.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Chrobry Głogów
3
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Bohemians 1905
0
2
L
08.07.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Baník Ostrava
0
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Pogon Szczecin
2
0
W
01.07.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Podbrezová
3
2
W
26.06.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Miedz Legnica
3
0
W
23.05.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Jagiellonia
0
1
L
15.05.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Pogon Szczecin
0
1
L
09.05.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Gornik Zabrze
2
0
W
03.05.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
0
0
D
17.04.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Legia Warszawa
0
1
L
11.04.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Radomiak Radom
1
0
W
07.04.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Arka Gdynia
1
3
L
20.03.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Motor Lublin
0
1
L
15.03.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Lech Poznan
0
1
L
07.03.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Piast Gliwice
3
1
W
02.03.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Wisla Plock
2
0
W
23.02.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Lechia Gdansk
2
0
W
14.02.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Raków Częstochowa
0
0
D
06.02.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Korona Kielce
2
1
W
Last matches: Nieciecza
18.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Podbeskidzie
1
1
D
17.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Korona Kielce
2
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
2
1
W
08.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Puszcza Niepołomice
3
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Resovia Rzeszów
4
0
W
27.06.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Wisla Krakow
4
3
W
20.06.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Unia Tarnow
5
0
W
23.05.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
3
2
W
18.05.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Arka Gdynia
3
2
W
10.05.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Legia Warszawa
0
1
L
03.05.26
Eks
Nieciecza
GKS Katowice
1
5
L
19.04.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Wisla Plock
1
3
L
11.04.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Widzew Łódź
0
1
L
06.04.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Piast Gliwice
3
2
W
22.03.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Lech Poznan
1
4
L
13.03.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Motor Lublin
1
2
L
07.03.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Korona Kielce
1
2
L
01.03.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Radomiak Radom
1
1
D
21.02.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Raków Częstochowa
0
1
L
16.02.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Gornik Zabrze
1
1
D
H2H: Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza
24.04.26
H2H
Zaglebie Lubin
Nieciecza
1
2
L
24.10.25
H2H
Nieciecza
Zaglebie Lubin
1
1
D
11.03.22
H2H
Nieciecza
Zaglebie Lubin
0
2
W
17.09.21
H2H
Zaglebie Lubin
Nieciecza
2
1
W
Last matches: Zaglebie Lubin
18.07.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Chrobry Głogów
3
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Bohemians 1905
0
2
L
08.07.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Baník Ostrava
0
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Pogon Szczecin
2
0
W
01.07.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Podbrezová
3
2
W
26.06.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Miedz Legnica
3
0
W
15.05.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Pogon Szczecin
0
1
L
03.05.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
0
0
D
11.04.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Radomiak Radom
1
0
W
15.03.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Lech Poznan
0
1
L
02.03.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Wisla Plock
2
0
W
14.02.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Raków Częstochowa
0
0
D
30.01.26
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
GKS Katowice
0
2
L
17.01.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Podbrezová
2
3
L
16.01.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Qarabag
1
3
L
13.01.26
Fri
Zaglebie Lubin
Karviná
2
2
D
06.12.25
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Widzew Łódź
2
1
W
30.11.25
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Jagiellonia
0
0
D
07.11.25
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Gornik Zabrze
2
0
W
19.10.25
Eks
Zaglebie Lubin
Legia Warszawa
3
1
W
H2H at home: Zaglebie Lubin
24.04.26
H2H
Zaglebie Lubin
Nieciecza
1
2
L
17.09.21
H2H
Zaglebie Lubin
Nieciecza
2
1
W
Last matches: Nieciecza
17.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Korona Kielce
2
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
2
1
W
08.07.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Puszcza Niepołomice
3
0
W
27.06.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Wisla Krakow
4
3
W
20.06.26
Fri
Nieciecza
Unia Tarnow
5
0
W
18.05.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Arka Gdynia
3
2
W
03.05.26
Eks
Nieciecza
GKS Katowice
1
5
L
11.04.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Widzew Łódź
0
1
L
22.03.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Lech Poznan
1
4
L
07.03.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Korona Kielce
1
2
L
21.02.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Raków Częstochowa
0
1
L
08.02.26
Eks
Nieciecza
Pogon Szczecin
1
1
D
13.01.26
Fri
Nieciecza
IMT Novi Beograd
3
1
W
29.11.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
1
5
L
09.11.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Legia Warszawa
2
1
W
20.10.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Wisla Plock
1
3
L
27.09.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Piast Gliwice
2
4
L
14.09.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Motor Lublin
1
1
D
22.08.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Radomiak Radom
1
1
D
08.08.25
Eks
Nieciecza
Gornik Zabrze
1
0
W
H2H away: Nieciecza
24.04.26
H2H
Zaglebie Lubin
Nieciecza
1
2
W
17.09.21
H2H
Zaglebie Lubin
Nieciecza
2
1
L

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation