POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
24.04.2026 16:00
KGHM Zaglebie Arena
Referee: D. Kos
Zaglebie Lubin
Match Timeline
Nieciecza
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Michał Nalepa
Zaglebie Lubin
🟨
12'
Damian Hilbrycht
Nieciecza
🟨
15'
Kamil Zapolnik
Nieciecza
20'
M. Regula · Assist: I. Orlikowski
Zaglebie Lubin
🟨
37'
Mateusz Grzybek
Zaglebie Lubin
🟨
42'
Adam Radwański
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
46'
M. Matysik ↔ G. Isik
Nieciecza
🟨
58'
Marcel Regula
Zaglebie Lubin
60'
D. Hilbrycht · Assist: J. Jimenez
Nieciecza
🔄
63'
M. Grzybek ↔ L. Lucic
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
64'
A. Radwanski ↔ J. Sypek
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
64'
M. Dziewiatowski ↔ F. Kocaba
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
64'
M. Fassbender ↔ R. Kurzawa
Nieciecza
🟨
66'
Marcel Regula
Zaglebie Lubin
🟥
66'
Marcel Regula
Zaglebie Lubin
🟨
76'
Luka Lucic
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
77'
L. Szabo ↔ S. Kowalczyk
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
78'
D. Dabrowski ↔ M. Kosidis
Zaglebie Lubin
🔄
78'
K. Zapolnik ↔ I. Durdov
Nieciecza
🔄
83'
I. Strzalek ↔ D. Biniek
Nieciecza
90'
I. Durdov
Nieciecza

Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 70.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
70.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Zaglebie Lubin Win 86.7%
Draw 11.5%
Nieciecza Win 1.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Zaglebie Lubin1.61
Nieciecza1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin
WWDLW
42 GF / 34 GA
Nieciecza Nieciecza
WLDWL
34 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.86
15
BTTS Yes
20
14
Over 2.5
15
3.66
Shots on Goal
4.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 29 matches
Nieciecza Nieciecza 29 matches
Zaglebie Lubin Statistic Nieciecza
12 Wins 6
8 Draws 7
9 Losses 16
42 Goals For 34
34 Goals Against 54
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.86
15 BTTS Yes 20
20 Over 1.5 25
14 Over 2.5 15
10 Over 3.5 10
9 Clean Sheets 3
8 Failed To Score 6
3.66 Shots On Goal 4.21
11.83 Total Shots 12.66
3.59 Corners 4.31
40.2% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Zaglebie Lubin's more proactive style and Nieciecza's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nieciecza. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Zaglebie Lubin expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nieciecza in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nieciecza having the stronger overall control. Zaglebie Lubin arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 44 points compared to Nieciecza in 18 on 25, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Zaglebie Lubin Analysis

With 44 points from 29 games and a place of 5, Zaglebie Lubin still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 42:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Kosidis (6 goals), A. Radwanski (4 goals), M. Regula (4 goals), with creative support from A. Radwanski (6 assists), M. Regula (3 assists), K. Szmyt (3 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Nieciecza Analysis

Nieciecza sit 18 with 25 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 33:51, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through J. Jimenez (5 goals), K. Kubica (5 goals), K. Zapolnik (4 goals), with creative support from Damian Hilbrycht (3 assists), Sergio Guerrero (2 assists), M. Ambrosiewicz (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Zaglebie Lubin won 2 times, Nieciecza won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:4 from Zaglebie Lubin's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (98.2%)
Predicted formations: Zaglebie Lubin 4-2-3-1 / Nieciecza 3-4-3
H2H summary: Zaglebie Lubin wins 2, draws 1, Nieciecza wins 1

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation