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CHINA › SUPER LEAGUE
17.10.2026 11:35
Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium

Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80.5%
Odds 1.59
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.58
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80.5%
1.59 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.58 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.14 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Yunnan Yukun Win 80.5%
Draw 4.6%
Chongqing Tongliang Long Win 14.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Yunnan Yukun1.73
Chongqing Tongliang Long1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Yunnan Yukun Yunnan Yukun
WWDLW
60 GF / 65 GA
Chongqing Tongliang Long Chongqing Tongliang Long
WLDWL
28 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
2.07
Average Goals Scored
1.04
2.24
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
21
BTTS Yes
15
24
Over 2.5
9
5.3
Shots on Goal
3.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Yunnan Yukun Yunnan Yukun 29 matches
Chongqing Tongliang Long Chongqing Tongliang Long 27 matches
Yunnan Yukun Statistic Chongqing Tongliang Long
11 Wins 7
6 Draws 11
12 Losses 9
60 Goals For 28
65 Goals Against 33
2.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
2.24 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
21 BTTS Yes 15
26 Over 1.5 17
24 Over 2.5 9
17 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 7
5.3 Shots On Goal 3.22
15.37 Total Shots 9.22
5.04 Corners 4.15
50.9% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Yunnan Yukun's more proactive style and Chongqing Tongliang Long's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Chongqing Tongliang Long arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Chongqing Tongliang Long having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Chongqing Tongliang Long. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Yunnan Yukun Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 38 points from 26 games, Yunnan Yukun bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 11 wins, 5 draws, and 10 defeats plus a goal balance of 54:51, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by O. Maritu (19 goals), Cléber (9 goals), A. Ioniță (4 goals), with creative support from A. Ioniță (12 assists), O. Maritu (6 assists), Cléber (5 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Chongqing Tongliang Long Analysis

Chongqing Tongliang Long sit 9 with 31 points after 26 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 10 draws, and 9 defeats with a 27:32 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on L. Dimata (6 goals), G. Cîmpanu (4 goals), Chen Chunxin (3 goals), with creative support from G. Cîmpanu (4 assists), L. Dimata (2 assists), Zhixiong Zhang (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Yunnan Yukun won 0 times, Chongqing Tongliang Long won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from Yunnan Yukun's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Yunnan Yukun 4-3-3 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 5-4-1
H2H summary: Yunnan Yukun wins 0, draws 4, Chongqing Tongliang Long wins 1

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 15 7 5 51:31 20 52
L D W L W
2 27 13 4 10 42:42 0 43
W W D W D
3 27 12 10 5 52:33 19 41
W D D D W
4 27 13 5 9 47:44 3 38
D D W L W
5 27 11 5 11 55:58 -3 38
L W L D W
6 27 8 14 5 31:36 -5 38
L D D W D
7 27 11 8 8 44:35 9 36
W D W W D
8 27 13 5 9 59:47 12 34
W W L W L
9 27 7 11 9 28:33 -5 32
D L D L D
10 28 11 8 9 38:32 6 31
W W W W D
11 27 10 6 11 47:47 0 31
L W L W D
12 27 8 5 14 36:47 -11 29
D D L D W
13 28 8 10 10 35:38 -3 28
L D D D D
14 27 7 5 15 35:48 -13 26
D L L L D
15 27 5 12 10 40:47 -7 22
D L D D W
16 27 6 3 18 34:56 -22 14
L L L L L
AFC Champions League Elite League Stage
AFC Champions League 2 Group Stage
Relegation