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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
26.09.2026 14:00
York`s LNER Community Stadium
York
Match Timeline
Gillingham
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
2'
J. Grey · Assist: O. Pearce
York
🔄
19'
W. Goodwin ↔ Z. Albarus
Gillingham
🔄
31'
E. King ↔ G. McCleary
Gillingham
🟨
37'
Omar Beckles
Gillingham
🟨
45+3'
Joe Grey
York
🟨
45+1'
Robbie McKenzie
Gillingham
🟨
50'
Garath McCleary
Gillingham
🔄
57'
A. Newby ↔ J. Malcolm
York
🟨
60'
Zane Albarus
Gillingham
🔄
65'
A. Smith ↔ J. Daley
Gillingham
🔄
65'
R. Hale ↔ B. Dack
Gillingham
🔄
65'
L. Dobbs ↔ S. Kendall
Gillingham
🟨
70'
Zane Albarus
Gillingham
🟥
70'
Zane Albarus
Gillingham
⚽
75'
J. Malcolm · Assist: H. Boyes
York
⚽
79'
O. Pearce · Assist: H. Boyes
York
🔄
80'
O. Banks ↔ J. King
York
🔄
81'
J. Felix ↔ A. Read
York
🔄
81'
J. Grey ↔ F. Maguire
York

York vs Gillingham Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
York Win 47.2%
Draw 11.3%
Gillingham Win 41.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
York1.34
Gillingham1.73
Recent Form (Last 5)
York York
WWDLW
21 GF / 24 GA
Gillingham Gillingham
WLDWL
17 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.55
2
Average Goals Conceded
0.73
10
BTTS Yes
4
9
Over 2.5
5
5.43
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

York York 12 matches
Gillingham Gillingham 11 matches
York Statistic Gillingham
4 Wins 6
3 Draws 3
5 Losses 2
21 Goals For 17
24 Goals Against 8
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.73
10 BTTS Yes 4
12 Over 1.5 8
9 Over 2.5 5
6 Over 3.5 1
1 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 3
5.43 Shots On Goal 4.43
16.86 Total Shots 11.43
6.57 Corners 3.86
62.6% Ball Possession 45.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gillingham. York arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 11 points compared to Gillingham in 11 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

York Analysis

York come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 11 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, while the 13:8 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Newby (5 goals), O. Pearce (1 goals), O. Banks (1 goals), with creative support from H. Boyes (3 assists), O. Pearce (2 assists), J. King (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Gillingham Analysis

From their first 6 matches, Gillingham have collected 9 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, while the 8:6 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Brophy (2 goals), Ronan Hale (1 goals), O. Beckles (1 goals), with creative support from N. Freeman (2 assists), Ronan Hale (1 assists), A. Smith (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, York won 0 times, Gillingham won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from York's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.7%)
Predicted formations: York 3-4-2-1 / Gillingham 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: York wins 0, draws 2, Gillingham wins 0

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 15:10 5 19
W W W W D
2 8 5 3 0 20:11 9 18
W W W D D
3 10 4 6 0 12:7 5 18
W W D D D
4 10 4 4 2 15:10 5 16
W D L W W
5
York Home
9 4 3 2 17:11 6 15
D W L W D
6 9 3 6 0 12:6 6 15
D D W D D
7 10 4 3 3 17:14 3 15
D W L W W
8 10 4 3 3 16:16 0 15
L L W D W
9 10 5 0 5 15:17 -2 15
L L W L L
10 10 4 2 4 11:12 -1 14
D W W W D
11 10 3 4 3 13:11 2 13
L L L W W
12 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
W D W D D
13 10 2 6 2 13:13 0 12
D L D D L
14 10 3 3 4 6:6 0 12
W W L D L
15 10 2 5 3 13:14 -1 11
D W D D L
16 10 2 5 3 10:11 -1 11
D L L L D
17 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L L D L L
18 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
L W D D W
19 9 2 4 3 10:13 -3 10
L D D D L
20 10 2 4 4 12:16 -4 10
L L D W D
21 9 2 2 5 9:13 -4 8
D L L L L
22 8 2 2 4 4:9 -5 8
W L W L L
23 8 1 4 3 4:7 -3 7
D L L W D
24 8 1 2 5 8:15 -7 5
D L L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League