CANADA CANADIAN PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
York Lions Stadium
Referee: M. Alayass
York United
Match Timeline
Forge
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
17'
M. Jevremovic
Forge
26'
H. Massunda
Forge
🟨
32'
J. Cordova
York United
47'
M. Ferrari · Assist: J. Altobelli
York United
50'
T. Borges · Assist: A. Aromatario
Forge
🟨
53'
M. Babouli
Forge
🔄
61'
K. Kibato ↔ L. Accettola
York United
🔄
61'
J. Cordova ↔ S. Yeates
York United
🔄
68'
M. Filion ↔ B. Wright
Forge
🔄
68'
H. Massunda ↔ M. Bourgeois
Forge
🔄
68'
M. Babouli ↔ N. Jensen
Forge
70'
B. Paton · Assist: T. Borges
Forge
🔄
72'
F. Sturing ↔ O. Bassett
York United
🟨
74'
R. Lopez
York United
🔄
79'
J. Altobelli ↔ G. Bitar
York United
🔄
79'
T. Borges ↔ K. Bekker
Forge
🔄
79'
R. Rama ↔ N. Ampomah
Forge
🔄
80'
B. Badibanga ↔ A. Almagro
York United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.7%
-
BTTS Yes
71.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72.4%
-
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
York United Win 38.7%
Draw 15.3%
Forge Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
York United1.18
Forge1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
York United York United
WWDLW
12 GF / 8 GA
Forge Forge
WLDWL
11 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.7
5
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
3
2.14
Shots on Goal
2.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

York United York United 8 matches
Forge Forge 10 matches
York United Statistic Forge
4 Wins 6
3 Draws 2
1 Losses 2
12 Goals For 11
8 Goals Against 7
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.7
5 BTTS Yes 3
5 Over 1.5 4
3 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 7
0 Failed To Score 2
2.14 Shots On Goal 2.1
3.71 Total Shots 7
1 Corners 3
13.3% Ball Possession 22.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with York United expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Forge in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Forge having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Forge. Forge carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 19 points while York United sit 3 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

York United Analysis

Placed 3 with 12 points from 7 outings, York United continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 11:8 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by J. Altobelli (4 goals), T. Skublak (4 goals), L. Cloutier (2 goals), with creative support from A. Almagro (1 assists), B. Badibanga (1 assists), Juan Córdova (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Forge Analysis

Forge come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 19 points from 8 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 10:3 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by B. Wright (3 goals), A. Batisse (2 goals), B. Paton (1 goals), with creative support from B. Paton (2 assists), Daniel Nimick (1 assists), H. Massunda (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, York United won 1 times, Forge won 10 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:35 from York United's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.7%)
Predicted formations: York United 3-4-3 / Forge 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: York United wins 1, draws 4, Forge wins 10

Lineups

York United
Formation
Forge
D. Urtiaga
D. Urtiaga
R. Lopez
R. Lopez
F. Sturing
F. Sturing
L. Singh
L. Singh
M. Ferrari
M. Ferrari
K. Kibato
K. Kibato
C. Guzman
C. Guzman
J. Cordova
J. Cordova
J. Altobelli
🎯
J. Altobelli
T. Skublak
T. Skublak
B. Badibanga
B. Badibanga
D. Bertaud
D. Bertaud
R. Rama
R. Rama
D. Nimick
D. Nimick
A. Batisse
A. Batisse
M. Jevremovic
M. Jevremovic
A. Aromatario
🎯
A. Aromatario
B. Paton
B. Paton
H. Massunda
H. Massunda
T. Borges
🎯
T. Borges
M. Babouli
M. Babouli
M. Filion
M. Filion
York United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
D. Urtiaga
6
R. Lopez
🟨 74'
5
F. Sturing
↓ 72'
3
L. Singh
16
M. Ferrari
⚽ 47'
21
K. Kibato
↓ 61'
8
C. Guzman
23
J. Cordova
↓ 61' 🟨 32'
18
J. Altobelli
🎯 47' ↓ 79'
77
T. Skublak
39
B. Badibanga
↓ 80'
Substitutes
12
I. Pavela
20
G. Bitar
↑ 79'
13
L. Accettola
↑ 61'
10
O. Bassett
↑ 72'
7
S. Yeates
↑ 61'
2
A. Bergman
11
A. Almagro
↑ 80'
Forge 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
D. Bertaud
24
R. Rama
↓ 79'
5
D. Nimick
8
A. Batisse
3
M. Jevremovic
⚽ 17'
23
A. Aromatario
🎯 50'
6
B. Paton
⚽ 70'
17
H. Massunda
⚽ 26' ↓ 68'
19
T. Borges
⚽ 50' 🎯 70' ↓ 79'
18
M. Babouli
↓ 68' 🟨 53'
12
M. Filion
↓ 68'
Substitutes
36
D. Bontis
10
K. Bekker
↑ 79'
11
N. Ampomah
↑ 79'
9
B. Wright
↑ 68'
87
M. Bourgeois
↑ 68'
26
A. Sadek
22
N. Jensen
↑ 68'
Last matches: York United
04.07.26
Can
York United
Vancouver FC
0
4
L
10.06.26
Can
York United
Cavalry FC
1
5
L
29.05.26
Can
York United
Supra du Quebec
1
3
L
23.05.26
Can
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
1
1
D
17.05.26
Can
York United
Pacific FC
1
0
W
01.05.26
Can
York United
Atlético Ottawa
4
1
W
25.04.26
Can
York United
Cavalry FC
1
1
D
19.04.26
Can
York United
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
11.04.26
Can
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
2
D
27.02.26
Fri
York United
Las Vegas Lights
1
0
W
Last matches: Forge
05.07.26
Can
Forge
Supra du Quebec
2
1
W
01.07.26
Can
Forge
Vancouver FC
3
2
W
10.06.26
Can
Forge
HFX Wanderers FC
1
0
W
31.05.26
Can
Forge
Cavalry FC
1
0
W
24.05.26
Can
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
1
2
L
13.05.26
Can
Forge
Supra du Quebec
1
0
W
02.05.26
Can
Forge
HFX Wanderers FC
3
1
W
26.04.26
Can
Forge
Pacific FC
1
0
W
18.04.26
Can
Forge
Cavalry FC
0
0
D
12.04.26
Can
Forge
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
04.04.26
Can
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
2
0
W
11.02.26
CON
Forge
Tigres UANL
1
4
L
04.02.26
CON
Forge
Tigres UANL
0
0
D
H2H: York United vs Forge
07.06.26
H2H
York United
Forge
1
4
L
18.10.25
H2H
Forge
York United
3
0
L
09.08.25
H2H
York United
Forge
1
2
L
29.06.25
H2H
Forge
York United
2
2
D
27.04.25
H2H
York United
Forge
2
2
D
28.09.24
H2H
Forge
York United
2
0
L
24.08.24
H2H
York United
Forge
0
0
D
01.06.24
H2H
Forge
York United
3
0
L
01.05.24
H2H
Forge
York United
3
1
L
21.04.24
H2H
York United
Forge
0
3
L
12.08.23
H2H
Forge
York United
3
3
D
09.07.23
H2H
York United
Forge
0
4
L
31.05.23
H2H
Forge
York United
1
2
W
05.05.23
H2H
York United
Forge
0
1
L
01.10.22
H2H
Forge
York United
2
0
L
Last matches: York United
10.06.26
Can
York United
Cavalry FC
1
5
L
01.05.26
Can
York United
Atlético Ottawa
4
1
W
19.04.26
Can
York United
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
11.04.26
Can
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
2
D
27.02.26
Fri
York United
Las Vegas Lights
1
0
W
H2H at home: York United
07.06.26
H2H
York United
Forge
1
4
L
09.08.25
H2H
York United
Forge
1
2
L
27.04.25
H2H
York United
Forge
2
2
D
24.08.24
H2H
York United
Forge
0
0
D
21.04.24
H2H
York United
Forge
0
3
L
09.07.23
H2H
York United
Forge
0
4
L
05.05.23
H2H
York United
Forge
0
1
L
Last matches: Forge
05.07.26
Can
Forge
Supra du Quebec
2
1
W
24.05.26
Can
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
1
2
L
02.05.26
Can
Forge
HFX Wanderers FC
3
1
W
26.04.26
Can
Forge
Pacific FC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Can
Forge
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
11.02.26
CON
Forge
Tigres UANL
1
4
L
H2H away: Forge
07.06.26
H2H
York United
Forge
1
4
W
09.08.25
H2H
York United
Forge
1
2
W
27.04.25
H2H
York United
Forge
2
2
D
24.08.24
H2H
York United
Forge
0
0
D
21.04.24
H2H
York United
Forge
0
3
W
09.07.23
H2H
York United
Forge
0
4
W
05.05.23
H2H
York United
Forge
0
1
W

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Forge Away
12 10 1 1 20:7 13 31
W W W W W
2 11 8 2 1 22:5 17 26
W W W L W
3 12 5 2 5 18:22 -4 17
L W W L D
4 13 4 3 6 17:20 -3 15
W L W L L
5 12 4 2 6 15:14 1 14
W L W W L
6 10 3 3 4 13:21 -8 12
L L L L D
7 10 3 2 5 14:16 -2 11
L L D W D
8 12 0 3 9 13:27 -14 3
L L L D D
Promotion - Canadian Premier League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)