BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Municipal Barao de Serra Negra
XV de Piracicaba
Match Timeline
Noroeste
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
25'
Marlyson
Noroeste
90'
Erik Bessa
XV de Piracicaba

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
54.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
XV de Piracicaba Win 76.1%
Draw 0%
Noroeste Win 23.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
XV de Piracicaba1.28
Noroeste1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba
WWDLW
13 GF / 7 GA
Noroeste Noroeste
WLDWL
10 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1.25
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
0.75
6
BTTS Yes
2
3
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba 8 matches
Noroeste Noroeste 8 matches
XV de Piracicaba Statistic Noroeste
4 Wins 3
4 Draws 2
0 Losses 3
13 Goals For 10
7 Goals Against 6
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 0.75
6 BTTS Yes 2
6 Over 1.5 4
3 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 1
2 Clean Sheets 3
0 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Noroeste. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. XV de Piracicaba arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 15 points compared to Noroeste in 2 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Noroeste having the stronger overall control.

XV de Piracicaba Analysis

XV de Piracicaba come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 15 points after 7 matches. With 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 12:6, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by David Ribeiro (3 goals), Antonio Gabriel (2 goals), Henry (2 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Noroeste Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 11 points from 7 games, Noroeste bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 10:5, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Marlyson (4 goals), Joao Bravo (2 goals), Pedro Carrerette (2 goals), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, XV de Piracicaba won 3 times, Noroeste won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:8 from XV de Piracicaba's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: XV de Piracicaba wins 3, draws 2, Noroeste wins 1
Last matches: XV de Piracicaba
04.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
4
L
27.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
2
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
4
1
W
Last matches: Noroeste
28.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
3
L
21.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
3
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
H2H: XV de Piracicaba vs Noroeste
30.05.26
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
1
1
D
11.04.26
H2H
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
2
2
D
06.03.24
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
5
2
W
13.01.23
H2H
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
1
3
W
05.10.21
H2H
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
2
0
L
28.09.21
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
2
0
W
Last matches: XV de Piracicaba
27.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
2
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
4
1
W
H2H at home: XV de Piracicaba
30.05.26
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
1
1
D
06.03.24
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
5
2
W
28.09.21
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
2
0
W
Last matches: Noroeste
21.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
3
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
H2H away: Noroeste
30.05.26
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
1
1
D
06.03.24
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
5
2
L
28.09.21
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
2
0
L

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)