BRAZIL SERIE D
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Estadio Municipal Barao de Serra Negra

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.3%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.3%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
XV de Piracicaba Win 40.8%
Draw 15.8%
Cianorte Win 43.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
XV de Piracicaba1.06
Cianorte1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba
WWDLW
17 GF / 14 GA
Cianorte Cianorte
WLDWL
14 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
0.69
8
BTTS Yes
3
4
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba 13 matches
Cianorte Cianorte 13 matches
XV de Piracicaba Statistic Cianorte
5 Wins 7
6 Draws 1
2 Losses 5
17 Goals For 14
14 Goals Against 9
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 0.69
8 BTTS Yes 3
10 Over 1.5 4
4 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 7
2 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Cianorte have the edge after taking the first leg 4-0, leaving XV de Piracicaba needing to respond to a 4-goal deficit. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Cianorte having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cianorte. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

XV de Piracicaba Analysis

XV de Piracicaba enter this tie with a season profile built on 17 points from 10 matches, placing them 1 in their league. Their record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 14:9 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Cianorte Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Cianorte arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 16 points after 10 matches. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 9:8 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.3%)
Last matches: XV de Piracicaba
04.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
4
L
27.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
2
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
4
1
W
Last matches: Cianorte
04.07.26
Ser
Cianorte
XV de Piracicaba
4
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Cianorte
Independiente FSJ
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Cianorte
Independiente FSJ
1
0
W
07.06.26
Ser
Cianorte
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cianorte
Santa Catarina
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Cianorte
Joinville
0
0
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cianorte
Cascavel
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Cianorte
São Luiz
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Cianorte
São Luiz
1
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Cianorte
Cascavel
1
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Cianorte
Joinville
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Cianorte
Santa Catarina
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Cianorte
Guarany de Bagé
3
1
W
06.09.25
Ser
Cianorte
Barra
0
1
L
31.08.25
Ser
Cianorte
Barra
0
0
D
23.08.25
Ser
Cianorte
Mixto
2
0
W
17.08.25
Ser
Cianorte
Mixto
1
1
D
10.08.25
Ser
Cianorte
Joinville
4
0
W
03.08.25
Ser
Cianorte
Joinville
1
1
D
26.07.25
Ser
Cianorte
Operario Ferroviario
2
0
W
Last matches: XV de Piracicaba
27.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
2
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
4
1
W
Last matches: Cianorte
20.06.26
Ser
Cianorte
Independiente FSJ
1
0
W
07.06.26
Ser
Cianorte
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Cianorte
Joinville
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Cianorte
São Luiz
1
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Cianorte
Cascavel
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Cianorte
Santa Catarina
0
1
L
06.09.25
Ser
Cianorte
Barra
0
1
L
23.08.25
Ser
Cianorte
Mixto
2
0
W
03.08.25
Ser
Cianorte
Joinville
1
1
D
26.07.25
Ser
Cianorte
Operario Ferroviario
2
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Cianorte
Cascavel
1
2
L
27.06.25
Ser
Cianorte
Inter De Limeira
0
2
L
07.06.25
Ser
Cianorte
Goiatuba EC
1
3
L
24.05.25
Ser
Cianorte
Uberlandia
1
1
D
10.05.25
Ser
Cianorte
Monte Azul
1
1
D
26.04.25
Ser
Cianorte
Itabirito
2
2
D

Standings

Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)