BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Municipal Barao de Serra Negra
XV de Piracicaba
Match Timeline
América RJ
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
43'
Thales Oleques
XV de Piracicaba
45'
Dudu Vieira
XV de Piracicaba

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.4%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
XV de Piracicaba Win 74.4%
Draw 5.4%
América RJ Win 20.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
XV de Piracicaba1.62
América RJ1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba
WWDLW
15 GF / 10 GA
América RJ América RJ
WLDWL
12 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.09
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
2
8
BTTS Yes
6
3
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba 11 matches
América RJ América RJ 11 matches
XV de Piracicaba Statistic América RJ
4 Wins 3
6 Draws 4
1 Losses 4
15 Goals For 12
10 Goals Against 22
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 2
8 BTTS Yes 6
8 Over 1.5 9
3 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together XV de Piracicaba's more proactive style and América RJ's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors América RJ. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward América RJ having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

XV de Piracicaba Analysis

XV de Piracicaba come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 17 points from 10 matches. With 4 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses plus a goal ratio of 14:9, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on David Ribeiro (3 goals), Antonio Gabriel (2 goals), Henry (2 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

América RJ Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, América RJ arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 12 points after 10 matches. The return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 11:21 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Emerson Carioca (2 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, XV de Piracicaba won 1 times, América RJ won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from XV de Piracicaba's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
H2H summary: XV de Piracicaba wins 1, draws 1, América RJ wins 0
Last matches: XV de Piracicaba
11.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
4
L
20.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
4
1
W
Last matches: América RJ
20.06.26
Ser
América RJ
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
06.06.26
Ser
América RJ
Água Santa
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Portuguesa RJ
2
2
D
23.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Portuguesa
1
4
L
16.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Madureira
3
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Pouso Alegre
0
3
L
02.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Pouso Alegre
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
América RJ
Madureira
3
2
W
18.04.26
Ser
América RJ
Portuguesa
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
América RJ
Portuguesa RJ
0
4
L
04.04.26
Ser
América RJ
Água Santa
0
4
L
H2H: XV de Piracicaba vs América RJ
27.06.26
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
2
0
W
20.06.26
H2H
América RJ
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
Last matches: XV de Piracicaba
11.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
4
1
W
H2H at home: XV de Piracicaba
27.06.26
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
2
0
W
Last matches: América RJ
30.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Portuguesa RJ
2
2
D
23.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Portuguesa
1
4
L
09.05.26
Ser
América RJ
Pouso Alegre
0
3
L
25.04.26
Ser
América RJ
Madureira
3
2
W
04.04.26
Ser
América RJ
Água Santa
0
4
L
H2H away: América RJ
27.06.26
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
2
0
L

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)