Wrexham vs Stoke City Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
79.9%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
82.3%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
72.3%
|
- |
Wrexham
Stoke City
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Wrexham
45 matches
Stoke City
44 matches
| Wrexham | Statistic | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wins | 16 |
| 14 | Draws | 10 |
| 13 | Losses | 18 |
| 69 | Goals For | 51 |
| 67 | Goals Against | 48 |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.16 |
| 1.49 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.09 |
| 30 | BTTS Yes | 19 |
| 37 | Over 1.5 | 29 |
| 23 | Over 2.5 | 19 |
| 15 | Over 3.5 | 7 |
| 11 | Clean Sheets | 14 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 15 |
| 3.82 | Shots On Goal | 3.89 |
| 11.47 | Total Shots | 11.18 |
| 4.73 | Corners | 5.52 |
| 47.5% | Ball Possession | 51.4% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Stoke City seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Stoke City. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Wrexham expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Stoke City in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Stoke City having the stronger overall control. Wrexham arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 64 points compared to Stoke City in 16 on 55, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Wrexham have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Wrexham approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 64 points from 42 matches. Across the season they have posted 17 wins, 13 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 63:60 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Windass (12 goals), K. Moore (11 goals), N. Broadhead (7 goals), with creative support from L. O'Brien (6 assists), J. Windass (5 assists), I. Kabore (5 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with L. Cacace, A. James, T. O'Connor unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Stoke City sit 16 with 55 points after 42 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 15 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats with a 49:46 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Thomas (10 goals), M. Manhoef (7 goals), D. Mubama (5 goals), with creative support from S. Thomas (10 assists), M. Manhoef (3 assists), J. Bae (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with A. Ampah, R. Bozenik, V. Johansson, A. Phillips unavailable.
Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Wrexham won 1 times, Stoke City won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from Wrexham's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97:45 | 52 | 95 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 2 | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80:47 | 33 | 84 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64:49 | 15 | 83 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82:56 | 26 | 80 |
W
D
W
D
D
|
|
| 5 | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72:47 | 25 | 80 |
L
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70:66 | 4 | 73 |
W
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 7 |
Wrexham
Home
|
46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69:65 | 4 | 71 |
D
L
W
W
L
|
| 8 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67:59 | 8 | 69 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63:56 | 7 | 65 |
L
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57:56 | 1 | 64 |
D
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 11 | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57:59 | -2 | 64 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59:59 | 0 | 62 |
W
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66:66 | 0 | 60 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 14 | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55:62 | -7 | 60 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61:73 | -12 | 58 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53:65 | -12 | 57 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 |
Stoke City
Away
|
46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51:56 | -5 | 55 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
| 18 | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49:64 | -15 | 55 |
D
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 19 | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44:58 | -14 | 53 |
L
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 20 | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42:56 | -14 | 52 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 21 | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48:58 | -10 | 51 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 22 | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45:59 | -14 | 47 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 23 | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58:68 | -10 | 46 |
W
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 24 | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29:89 | -60 | 0 |
W
L
L
D
D
|