ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
18.04.2026 14:00
Racecourse Ground
Referee: A. Herczeg
Wrexham
Match Timeline
Stoke City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
31'
J. Windass · Assist: G. Thomason
Wrexham
33'
J. Windass
Wrexham
🔄
46'
A. Cresswell ↔ J. Rak-Sakyi
Stoke City
🟨
47'
Million Manhoef
Stoke City
🔄
52'
S. Gallagher ↔ R. Bozenik
Stoke City
🔄
68'
L. Baker ↔ T. Seko
Stoke City
🔄
73'
O. Rathbone ↔ L. O'Brien
Wrexham
🔄
78'
J. Windass ↔ N. Broadhead
Wrexham
🔄
79'
S. Smith ↔ K. Moore
Wrexham
🔄
86'
B. Lawal ↔ R. Otegbayo
Stoke City

Wrexham vs Stoke City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Wrexham Win 79.9%
Draw 0%
Stoke City Win 20.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Wrexham1.35
Stoke City1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Wrexham Wrexham
WWDLW
69 GF / 67 GA
Stoke City Stoke City
WLDWL
51 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.49
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
30
BTTS Yes
19
23
Over 2.5
19
3.82
Shots on Goal
3.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Wrexham Wrexham 45 matches
Stoke City Stoke City 44 matches
Wrexham Statistic Stoke City
18 Wins 16
14 Draws 10
13 Losses 18
69 Goals For 51
67 Goals Against 48
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.49 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
30 BTTS Yes 19
37 Over 1.5 29
23 Over 2.5 19
15 Over 3.5 7
11 Clean Sheets 14
6 Failed To Score 15
3.82 Shots On Goal 3.89
11.47 Total Shots 11.18
4.73 Corners 5.52
47.5% Ball Possession 51.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Stoke City seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Stoke City. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Wrexham expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Stoke City in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Stoke City having the stronger overall control. Wrexham arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 64 points compared to Stoke City in 16 on 55, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Wrexham have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Wrexham Analysis

Wrexham approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 64 points from 42 matches. Across the season they have posted 17 wins, 13 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 63:60 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Windass (12 goals), K. Moore (11 goals), N. Broadhead (7 goals), with creative support from L. O'Brien (6 assists), J. Windass (5 assists), I. Kabore (5 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with L. Cacace, A. James, T. O'Connor unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Stoke City Analysis

Stoke City sit 16 with 55 points after 42 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 15 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats with a 49:46 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Thomas (10 goals), M. Manhoef (7 goals), D. Mubama (5 goals), with creative support from S. Thomas (10 assists), M. Manhoef (3 assists), J. Bae (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with A. Ampah, R. Bozenik, V. Johansson, A. Phillips unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Wrexham won 1 times, Stoke City won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from Wrexham's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Wrexham 3-4-2-1 / Stoke City 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Wrexham 4, Stoke City 9
H2H summary: Wrexham wins 1, draws 0, Stoke City wins 2

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation