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04.11.2026 19:45
Racecourse Ground
Referee: Oliver Langford

Wrexham vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 73.8%
Odds 1.18
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.60
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
73.8%
1.18 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.60 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.14 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Wrexham Win 26.2%
Draw 21.1%
Middlesbrough Win 52.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Wrexham1.24
Middlesbrough1.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
Wrexham Wrexham
L L W L D
6 GF / 7 GA
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
W W D W W
14 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
2.19
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
8
BTTS Yes
13
6
Over 2.5
12
3.38
Shots on Goal
6.62

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Wrexham Wrexham 15 matches
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 16 matches
Wrexham Statistic Middlesbrough
4 Wins 8
6 Draws 6
5 Losses 2
16 Goals For 35
19 Goals Against 24
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 2.19
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
8 BTTS Yes 13
11 Over 1.5 14
6 Over 2.5 12
2 Over 3.5 9
4 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 0
3.38 Shots On Goal 6.62
12.23 Total Shots 19.77
5.08 Corners 6.46
49.3% Ball Possession 59.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Middlesbrough's more proactive style and Wrexham's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Middlesbrough. Middlesbrough carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 25 points while Wrexham sit 17 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Wrexham expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Middlesbrough in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Middlesbrough having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Wrexham Analysis

With 14 points from 12 games and a place of 17, Wrexham still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 15:18, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through K. Moore (4 goals), B. Whiteman (1 goals), Daniel Edward Peter Imray (1 goals), with creative support from B. Whiteman (2 assists), Daniel Edward Peter Imray (2 assists), K. Moore (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Middlesbrough Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 25 points from 12 games, Middlesbrough bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 27:17, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through W. Lankshear (11 goals), A. Cozier-Duberry (3 goals), S. Berhalter (2 goals), with creative support from A. Cozier-Duberry (4 assists), T. Conway (4 assists), R. McGree (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Wrexham won 0 times, Middlesbrough won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from Wrexham's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.9%)
Predicted formations: Wrexham 3-4-2-1 / Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Wrexham 4, Middlesbrough 2
H2H summary: Wrexham wins 0, draws 2, Middlesbrough wins 1

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 8 4 1 30:17 13 28
W W D W W
2 14 7 5 2 26:13 13 26
W W L W W
3 14 8 2 4 22:17 5 26
W W D W L
4 14 8 2 4 21:16 5 26
L W L L W
5 14 7 4 3 20:15 5 25
D W D W W
6 14 8 4 2 29:14 15 24
D W W D W
7 13 7 3 3 23:16 7 24
W W D W L
8 13 6 4 3 33:18 15 22
L L W W D
9 14 6 4 4 20:17 3 22
W W D W L
10 14 6 4 4 19:16 3 22
W D W D W
11 14 5 6 3 22:17 5 21
D L W L W
12 14 6 0 8 27:24 3 18
W W W L L
13 14 5 3 6 23:24 -1 18
L W L D L
14 14 5 3 6 20:22 -2 18
L L W L W
15 13 5 3 5 15:17 -2 18
W D L L D
16 14 5 2 7 19:26 -7 17
W L L D W
17 14 4 3 7 14:24 -10 15
L L W D L
18 13 3 5 5 19:20 -1 14
L W D W L
19 13 3 5 5 15:19 -4 14
L L W L D
20 14 4 2 8 13:23 -10 14
W L L W L
21 14 3 5 6 11:22 -11 14
L L L L D
22 14 1 7 6 18:26 -8 10
D D L L D
23 14 1 4 9 11:29 -18 7
L L D L L
24 14 1 2 11 12:30 -18 5
L L D L L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One